The outgoing mayor of Toulouse, Jean-Luc Moudenc (LR), and the candidate of the Citizen Archipelago list, Antoine Maurice (EELV). - F .. Scheiber / 20 Minutes

The polls follow each other and look alike. And invariably, they give Antoine Maurice, the leader of the Citizen Archipelago list, ahead of the outgoing mayor, Jean-Luc Moudenc (LR).

The one published this Monday by the BVA institute, carried out between June 5 and 11 with 804 people for La Tribune and Europe 1, indicates that the environmental candidate would be elected mayor on June 28 with 51% of the vote, slightly in the lead therefore in front of the candidate of the "Love Toulouse" list supported by LREM.

EXCLUSIVE SURVEY - Municipal: the second round promises to be very tight in Toulouse https://t.co/rOJxoyuJnG

- Europe 1 🎧🌍📻 (@ Europe1) June 15, 2020

A lower score than the previous poll commissioned by Archipel which gave Antoine Maurice in the lead with 52% of the vote if he managed to unite the left. This finally took place, but in pain, the socialist candidate Nadia Pellefigue having decided not to rally the ecologist, but leaving her troops to do it.

Abstention and gathering

The poll is favorable to the challenger, on the condition that he succeeds in capturing all the voices of the left that had been cast on Nadia Pellefigue and Pierre Cohen, the former socialist mayor of Toulouse. Nothing is therefore played if one believes BVA.

Results of the municipal elections in Toulouse

On the one hand, because the participation would be Sunday June 28 of 48%, more than in the first round where it was 36.66%. And according to Jean-Luc Moudenc, it was mostly his voters who defaulted in the first round. Knowing that they were 57.66% in the second round of 2014 to have gone to the polls, this leaves him room for maneuver.

In addition, 16% of those polled still indicate today that they could vote blank, void or not vote. And when we approach the certainty of their choice fifteen days before the deadline, it is lower (85%) for those who lean for Antoine Maurice than for those in favor of Jean-Luc Moudenc (93%).

The last fifteen days of campaign risk being bitter between the two candidates and could therefore make the difference.

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