Many remember when Donald Trump arrived in Air Force One at Andrews Air Base in Maryland after history's first summit between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader.

Then, in the summer of 2018, Trump wrote on Twitter that the meeting had been successful.

“Everyone can now feel much safer since I took over the job. There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea, ”Trump announced.

But since Trump became president in January 2017, North Korea has equipped its nuclear weapons extensively. That is at least a doubling of the number of combat points.

- According to our calculations, yes. But some estimates, such as the South Korean government's, are significantly higher, says Shannon Kile, director of nuclear weapons research at Stockholm's International Peace Research Institute, Sipri.

North Korea shows what are reported to be ballistic robots for a submarine at a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2017. Photo: AP, Wong Maye-E

Up to 40 nuclear weapons

In January 2020, North Korea had 30 to 40 nuclear warheads, according to Sipri's new report. It can be compared to between 10 and 20 warheads in January 2017 when Trump became president. Since then, Trump has met Kim three times to talk about disarmament.

Is it a failure for Trump?

- It is at least a failure for his policy of reducing North Korea's nuclear arsenal. And the fact is that North Korea has made it clear that they do not want to participate in those talks unless the United States makes no countermeasures, which have not yet been specified, says Shannon Kile.

North Korea's leader Kim Jon Un and soldiers in the People's Army. Photo distributed by the country's government on February 28, 2020. Photo: KCNA via AP

Unclear ability

Now, for the first time, Sipri notes that North Korea has a high probability of operating short- and medium-range robots. However, there is no open evidence that the country has built long-range operational robots capable of reaching the entire US mainland, as North Korea's leaders claim.

- We still don't know that much about the capabilities of these warheads, such as what explosive strength they have, says Shannon Kile.

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (center). Photo distributed by the country's government on May 1, 2020 after Kim was away from the public for 20 days. Photo: KCNA via AP

command System

It is also a question mark of decision making regarding the firing button. Not least since Kim has been away from public appearances for two longer periods in 2020. 

- North Korea has what most observers consider to be a very rudimentary command and control system. So yes, I think there is some concern about this, not so much about the decision-making at the highest level, but about how decision-making then trickles down through the system, says Shannon Kile.