The Ukrainian government called for "modernizing the dialogue" with Russia on the settlement of the conflict in the Donbass with the involvement of foreign states and creating a platform for discussing the situation in Crimea. This is stated in the revised version of the draft program of activities of the Cabinet of Ministers of the country, published on the website of the Verkhovna Rada.

“It is necessary, with the support of international partners, to look for opportunities to modernize the dialogue with the Russian Federation on the Donbass, as well as create a separate high-level dialogue platform for the Crimea and the city of Sevastopol,” the document says.

At the same time, the Ukrainian government points to the importance of strengthening the country's defense capabilities, increasing the potential of the Armed Forces, special services and other armed groups "for the liberation and subsequent reintegration of temporarily occupied territories."

Also, the program of activities of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine states that Moscow does not fulfill the ceasefire agreement in the Donbass. According to Kiev, the behavior of the Russian Federation allegedly “makes impossible the transition to a political settlement, worsens the humanitarian situation in the temporarily occupied territories, and restrains the development of the Ukrainian economy.”

The Kremlin has repeatedly stressed that Russia is not a party to the conflict in southeastern Ukraine. Moscow proceeds from the need for strict implementation of the Minsk Agreements of 2015 and the launch of negotiations between Kiev and representatives of unrecognized republics.

Offensive diplomacy

Earlier, the vice-premier of Ukraine and the first deputy head of the delegation to the Tripartite Contact Group, Alexei Reznikov, announced the need for a “modernization” of the approach to the Minsk process. On June 12, speaking at the Kiev Security Forum, the official said that the format of negotiations on the Donbass should be improved. He also expressed regret at the lack of a sufficient number of sites on which to contact Moscow.

“Just for the sake of this platform, for the sake of the mutual release of the detainees, it is already worth leaving this Tripartite Contact Group in Minsk, since we have, unfortunately, no other contact area with the Russian Federation through the mediation of the OSCE. But today we understand that we want to give a chance to this “Minsk”, therefore we are doing everything to modernize this process, ”Reznikov said.

  • The consequences of the night shelling of the Petrovsky district of Donetsk
  • RIA News
  • © Sergey Averin

In early June, Reznikov set forth his vision of a dialogue with Moscow on the Donbass in an article published on the website of the Atlantic Council American Analytical Center *. In it, he proposed "returning" to the so-called Budapest format. We are talking about the agreement concluded in December 1994, according to which Ukraine renounced nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the Russian Federation, the United States and Great Britain.

The post-Maidan leadership of Ukraine regularly appeals to a memorandum signed in the Hungarian capital, accusing guarantor states of violating their obligations. Moscow, for its part, has repeatedly stated that it did not violate the provisions laid down in the document.

It is noteworthy that Reznikov insists that contacts in the Budapest format should begin without the participation of Moscow. According to him, the Kremlin will gain access to the negotiation process after consultations of Kiev with the USA and Great Britain.

According to RT’s source at the president’s office, Volodymyr Zelensky and his close associates, due to the lack of political experience, gravitate toward Poroshenko’s diplomacy methods, which consists in attracting Western partners as much as possible due to “Ukraine’s weak negotiating position.”

In turn, experts believe that the Kiev proposal to “modernize the dialogue” with Russia, including through the launch of the Budapest format, is based on the desire to “completely make sense” of the negotiation process. 

“First of all, the Ukrainian side should talk with the people's republics. It should be a dialogue between the parties to the conflict. Russia, like France and Germany, acts only as a guarantor of the implementation of Minsk-2. However, Kiev endlessly distorts the essence of these agreements with its demagogy that Russia allegedly violates them and therefore the West should put pressure on it, ”Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries, explained in an interview with RT.

As noted in an interview with RT, leading research fellow at RISI Oleg Nemensky, the next initiatives of Kiev diplomacy to change the negotiation process with Russia and Minsk are dictated by the hope of strengthening their own position with the involvement of representatives of Western states. 

“Even under Poroshenko, initiatives were put forward to expand the Norman format to include the United States and Poland. Now Kiev is putting forward new proposals, hoping that they will add weight to the agenda that it promotes in relations with Moscow, ”Oleg Nemensky explained.

On June 14, in an interview with Ukrinform, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that in relation to Russia, Kiev professes the tactics of “offensive diplomacy”. It lies in the fact that Ukraine is constantly declaring new initiatives, ostensibly reducing the room for the Kremlin to maneuver.

Also, according to Kuleba, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine continues to increase international pressure on Moscow and has sharply stepped up the promotion of the “Crimean issue in the international arena”. Such measures, the official said, bring the country closer to the "return" of the territories, "but in no case on the terms of Russia."

  • Meeting in Paris in the Norman format: Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky (from right to left)
  • RIA News
  • © Alexey Nikolsky

The Foreign Minister of Ukraine claims that he is “open to communication” with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, “if this helps solve our problems and contribute to the de-occupation of Ukrainian territory.”

Meanwhile, the fate of the Norman format is still not defined. The four leaders met in Paris on December 9th. Within the framework of the summit, a conversation between the Presidents of the Russian Federation and Ukraine Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky took place.

Following the talks, the parties agreed that a new round should take place in four months. However, in the spring of 2020, the coronavirus pandemic began in Russia, Europe and Ukraine, due to which all face-to-face meetings were canceled.

Before the outbreak of the epidemic in Moscow, they emphasized that the key to holding a future summit was the fulfillment of specific obligations, including the observance of a regime of silence, the withdrawal of troops and the exchange of prisoners of war according to the “all for all” formula.

“Absurd approach”

Experts explain Kiev’s refusal to comply with the Minsk agreements and all the agreements of the Paris summit with its unwillingness to pursue a course towards the real reintegration of the uncontrolled territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, at least peacefully.  

“By and large, Kiev does not need the Donbass. The civil conflict there has long been a way of legitimizing the post-Maidan regime, a tool to attract the attention of the West, which still provides Ukraine with a certain amount of military assistance and loans, ”said Nemensky. 

According to the expert, just this circumstance can explain the “absurd approach” of Ukraine to the settlement of the conflict in the southeast. Kiev constantly puts forward deliberately unrealizable initiatives that, moreover, do not meet enthusiasm in the West. 

  • APU soldiers near the contact line
  • AFP
  • © Oleksandr Ratushniak

The interlocutor of RT in the party "European Solidarity" claims that representatives of European states are tired of the role of mediator. According to him, in 2014-2015, the West paid great attention to the situation in the Donbass, but due to the lack of progress on Minsk-2, this interest faded.

“There was no sense - everything ended with the need to compromise. Actually, we are now observing this situation. In words, Zelensky is ready for a compromise, but in practice - no. Everyone understands that in such a situation, meeting in Norman or any other format is pointless, ”the deputy argues.

A similar point of view adheres to the source RT in the party "Voice". He believes that in relations with Moscow Ukraine is “hiding behind the backs of its Western partners,” not intending to take responsibility for the situation in the southeast of the country.

“Not a single person from the country's leadership is ready to take responsibility and stop military operations. Yes, this is not an easy decision. But without this, you can forget about the world. Europe is already tired of the “Ukrainian maneuvers” when they make promises, but they are not going to fulfill them, ”the source said.

In a RT commentary, Pavel Feldman, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at RUDN University, said that Western states are unlikely to support Kiev’s diplomatic initiatives because of their “dead end”. 

“I have the impression that the West, in fact, waved a hand at Ukraine. This is moral fatigue, and a huge number of internal problems. They pay attention to Kiev when it is necessary to arrange an anti-Russian provocation. In such an unfavorable situation, incompetent Ukrainian diplomacy has to invent various techniques in order to attract at least some interest from external forces, ”concluded Feldman. 

* “Atlantic Council of the United States” - an organization whose activity is deemed undesirable in the territory of the Russian Federation by decision of the Attorney General's Office of July 25, 2019.