The Director-General of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, believes that the global economic situation for this year will be worse than the crisis that the world witnessed between 2008 and 2009, but the urgent question is when will this crisis end?
In a report published by the Russian newspaper "Argomanti iFacti", the writer Elena Trigovova stated that the expectations of all financial institutions, bankers and economists do not bear a positive outlook on the prospects of the global economy.
And the writer quoted Musa Forschek, Chairman of the Expert Council of the Russian Federation Committee for Industrialists and Businessmen for Industrial Policy Affairs, that overcoming the crisis will require additional time, so it is difficult to determine a specific date for its end.
Aspects of the crisis will differ from one country to another, but in general the global economy can return to sustainable growth by 2021, while the situation will be unstable in the second half of 2020, and largely depends on the intensity and timing of the second wave of the Corona virus.
Overcome the epidemic
Forschek added that countries that can save their economic fabric and avoid bankruptcy will survive the crisis, and indicates that maintaining business and mental health for people helps to quickly return to normal after removing major constraints.
These countries are likely to include most developed countries, such as Japan, Germany, France, Switzerland, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, due to either the lack of significant losses caused by the crisis, or the adoption of measures to alleviate the severity of the crisis, including business or population support.
Forschek believes that China - which appears to have succeeded in overcoming the epidemic and was the first country to start almost restoring its economic growth - will not easily overcome the crisis as many believe.
"The fact that their reputation has been damaged in the world will lead in the near future to Chinese companies losing many global production chains, declining investment and even the withdrawal of foreign companies collectively," he says.
The suffering of developing countries
On the other hand, many developing countries, including Russia, Brazil, Mexico and India, may suffer severely from this crisis due to the delay in the war against the epidemic and the lack of resources by these countries to support the economy adequately.
The writer quoted Vladimir Klimanov, head of the Department of Economics at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, that the issue of ending the current crisis is rather complicated, and no one can predict its history as long as there is talk of a second or third wave of the epidemic.
Russia is currently living in two crises, the first linked to the Corona virus, and the second to low oil prices and the need to reduce production, and this will lead to additional impacts on the oil and gas sector and the country’s economy as a whole, and the crisis is likely to arise in the coming months in other sectors, even in the wake of the economic recovery after Quarantine bypassed.
According to Klimanov, it will be difficult to restore the previous path of sustainable development after the economic shock to the pre-crisis level, and the restoration process will take several years.
Stages of the economic cycle
Valeria Minichova, associate professor in the Department of International Financial and Economic Affairs of the Russian Economic University, considers that each economic cycle passes in four stages, namely, recovery, peak, stagnation and recession, and in the current situation, for Russia and the world, the stagnation phase will end with the removal of restrictions imposed on the movement of goods, services, capital and resources Fully working.
Besides, Minichova believes that this stage will continue at least until mid-autumn, and if a second wave of the epidemic occurs, quarantine and institution closures will continue until the spring of 2021.
Of course, the people of developed countries are more prepared for this crisis than previous crises by taking measures such as pooling savings, establishing a social support system, moving many industries to teleworking and automating many processes.
In general, the current crisis appeared in all countries of the world at the same time, and no one is good at dealing with it, and the crisis accompanying the decline in energy prices leaves the countries exporting oil, gas and coal in a more fragile situation.
Stabilization of the economy
As for economist Nikolai Nebeliuev, he considers that the crisis will affect all countries without exception, and indicates that although the smallest and medium-sized companies are the most harmful in Europe and the United States, the government support measures in these countries are very active.
Moreover, the stability of the leading economies is linked to the stability of the vast majority of entrepreneurs in the countries concerned, and the world's leading economies have realized how necessary it is to support employers and maintain the taxpayer economies through government support.