Doctors say they are making progress in understanding the epidemic, but they warn against relying on hope for an early vaccine. To date, more than six million people have been injured and an estimated 400,000 have died, a toll that will inevitably continue to rise for years to come. Our world has shifted, countries have been closed, and economies have come under intense pressure. However, we have only arrived halfway as the epidemic goes towards its first anniversary, a timing that raises a set of concerns and questions about our ability to navigate under the epidemic. What exactly have we learned about "Covid 19" during the past six months? How fast and how do we respond to the challenges posed by this epidemic?
More importantly, what are the questions that we urgently need to answer in the next six months? The answers of researchers and doctors must tell us about the possibility of living with one of the worst crises affecting humanity in modern times.
Are we ready?
One of the confirmed responses from scientists says that we were very poorly prepared with the arrival of "Covid 19". "It turns out that this disease is much worse than any epidemics we expected and plans to tackle it," said Martin Hibbard, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Health and Tropical Medicine. "She has a 1% mortality rate, and it is largely transferable from one person to another, features that we had not expected to a large extent in any new emerging disease we expect to face, and such features paint the worst possible realistic scenario we can imagine, so "The epidemic we are living in is worse than we thought. It is a very sad belief."
This point was also stressed by the Professor of Global Health at Imperial College in London, David Nabarro, who is the envoy of the World Health Organization on "Covid 19", where he said, "When we first encountered this disease, we thought it was just a respiratory disease affecting the upper chest, now from It is clear that it can cause sinus diseases, can affect the lining of blood vessels, and can lead to the development of blood clots. The disease has also been linked to severe fatigue, kidney damage and heart attacks, and often in young people relatively, this is not a disease that should be underestimated ».
Mark Wallhouse, Professor of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases at the University of Edinburgh, added that it is unlikely that he will disappear in the near future. “After we lived with Covid 19 for six months, the most important thing we learned is that we will have to live with him for a longer period, perhaps for life.” ».
In such circumstances, the closure - which Wallouse described as a "panic measure", but a necessary measure - will not be sustainable, and the problem we face over the coming months is finding ways to keep the disease away without resorting to the restrictions of the closure, and the economic and emotional damage associated with it. Woolhouse added that this would not be easy, as other lessons learned over the past six months have shown.
Aging disease
"The main feature that we have come to appreciate about Covid-19 is that it is an aging disease," he said. He justified this by saying, "The chance of death of those over 75 years of age is actually 10,000 times greater than it is for those of 15 years of age. It is really remarkable."
Problems with the effect of the disease on adults begin when one of them reaches 50 years old, and becomes more serious for every additional year of life. "This means that a large proportion of our population - those over 75 years old - need protection from this virus, because its consequences for them are very serious," Wallhouse added. "But is it wise to lock up grandchildren to save their grandparents?" In the sense that this is what we do so far ».
Biosecurity systems
One idea is to put in place very strict biosecurity systems around the role of care to ensure that coronavirus never enters it. Staff - from cleaners to caregivers - will be constantly tested for HIV infection. "No one will be allowed to enter without a test on the same day," said Wallhouse. "It is simple."
But, as Wallhouse admitted, the vast majority of people over 75 do not live in foster care. They live in their homes. This means that we will have to invent the concept of biosecurity for these people. This is one of the most urgent tasks we face now.
The test .. then the test .. then the test
Implementation of these ideas is now possible because virus testing technology has improved in accuracy and scope over the past two months. This provides other advantages and opportunities for understanding other questions about Covid 19. “Until now, we have been relying heavily on mathematical models to try to understand how the virus behaves and spreads across societies, and with the development of virus testing,” says epidemiology professor at University College London, Ann Johnson. And the new antibodies, we must have a much greater understanding, data-based, regarding the emergence and spread of Covid 19 cases. ” Johnson says that we should prioritize the collection of detailed epidemiological data, for example, what is the age, gender, ethnicity and zip code of people who have positive outcomes? Is this injured person a health care worker, or is he close to one of them, or does he live with one of them? Once we can quickly establish these facts, we will make a big difference in controlling the disease.
immunity
Then there is the crucial issue of the type of immunity that people who are already infected with the virus get. Heberd says: «Studies indicate that antibodies multiply in the blood of patients after their infection, and this immunity can be available against a future Covid 19 infection, and estimates indicate that immunity may last between six months and two years, yet we need to know how long it will last "It contains this immunity precisely, because it will have an important impact on how the disease is transmitted between the population."
The longer the antibody is available, the slower the disease to spread, and as a result, scientists ask these individuals who were among the first to have their blood taken and their antibody levels tested. Did the numbers of antibodies in the blood remain constant, or did they start to decline after only a few months? "This is a major search and needs to be done now," says Hibbard.
For those who were on the front lines, and who dealt with cases of Covid 19 when it began arriving in large numbers to hospitals in April, the battle to save patients with critical breathing difficulties was a problematic process, but doctors and nursing staff slowly developed treatments. "We are much better now in identifying those who will need intensive care, and those who can be brought home," says Tom Wingfield, a doctor at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine.
A reason for optimism
In the long run, a human vaccine may appear, yet most scientists believe this is a relatively remote possibility, a possibility that will not reach us for a year or two at the best. As Wallhouse said: "A vaccine is hope, not a strategy."
Yet there is still reason for optimism, scientists say. "Yes, the vaccine is a bit far away, but the anti-viral treatments are more optimistic," says Hibbard.
"If we succeed, it might help some people reduce death rates. We may succeed from 1% to 0.1% through improved tests, a better understanding of the immune systems and the response of antibodies to Covid 19. I think we will find ourselves in a completely different situation, and better." Much in the next six months, I'm optimistic. ”
In the long run, a human vaccine may appear, yet most scientists believe this is a relatively remote possibility, a possibility that will not reach us for a year or two at the best.
Trials are now being conducted on a number of antiviral drugs that have been developed to deal with other diseases, but are now being re-employed in the hope that they will be used to treat Covid 19.