Russian Ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov said that the US has no “positive signals” regarding the extension of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). He announced this on the air of the Big Game program on Channel One.

“We see that there is practically no security architecture today. There is an START, which lives on for several months. I’m quite pessimistic, because so far I’m not looking at any positive signals on this issue, ”Antonov said.

Earlier in an interview with Arms Control Today magazine of the American Arms Control Association, Antonov emphasized that Moscow was ready to agree to extend the agreement at any time. However, the United States does not give its consent to the extension.

The START Treaty (or START III) entered into force on February 5, 2011. It was concluded for a period of ten years with the possibility of extension by mutual agreement of the parties for five years. The agreement assumes that the Russian Federation and the United States will reduce the number of nuclear warheads to 1,550 units, and the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), ballistic missile submarines (SLBMs) ​​and heavy bombers - to 700. The agreement was signed on April 8, 2010 by Dmitry Medvedev, who held at that time the post of president of Russia, and his American counterpart Barack Obama.

“Forced”

The US insists that China should take part in the agreement to reduce the strategic arsenal. In early June, the special envoy of the US President for arms control Marshall Billingsley recalled this. However, Beijing has repeatedly stated that it is not going to join the negotiations that Washington plans to hold in the Austrian capital in the near future.

“China has just stated that it does not intend to participate in trilateral negotiations. He should reconsider his decision. To obtain the status of a great power, you need to take proper responsibility. There is no longer a great wall of secrecy around building a country's nuclear potential. We are waiting for China in Vienna, ”said Billingsley.

  • U.S. Special Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingsley
  • AFP
  • © CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images

However, in May in an interview with The Washington Times, special envoy Donald Trump said that START III had “many obvious flaws.” In particular, an American official pointed to an allegedly weak control regime. In this regard, according to the United States, it is necessary to spell out mandatory and verifiable provisions in the new document, since the White House fears that Moscow and Beijing will violate new agreements.

“This is very important because we are talking about two countries that are completely unable to comply with the treaties. Russia violated almost all the agreements that we signed with it. China also violated a number of agreements, ”said Billingsley, however, without providing any evidence to these charges. 

Commenting on Washington’s attacks on Russia and China, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the allegations and problems set forth by Trump’s special envoy contrived. According to her, Russia fully complies with the provisions of the START Treaty and for its extension there is no need to involve China in the negotiation process. She emphasized that Moscow opposes "artificial linkages that would call into question the solution of this increasingly urgent task."

“Our position is well known and remains unchanged. We are ready to support any multilateral schemes that can contribute to the strengthening of international security and stability. However, they should not be implemented “by force”, but on a voluntary consensus basis, with the obligatory consideration of the interests and concerns of all potential participants, ”said Zakharova.

Moscow's position is the need to extend the START Treaty for five years without any preconditions. From the point of view of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the extension would allow to gain time for finding optimal approaches to the problem of controlling strategic nuclear weapons. According to Maria Zakharova, Great Britain and France, which also have nuclear arsenals, could join such negotiations.

“The basis for interaction will disappear”

According to experts, Washington deliberately puts forward conditions that are unacceptable for the Russian Federation in order to find reasons not to extend the START Treaty. For example, the United States is demanding that Moscow curtail development programs for the latest types of nuclear missile weapons: Sarmat ICBMs, Avangard hypersonic unit, X-47M2 Dagger aviation ballistic missile, and Poseidon submarine unmanned aerial vehicle.

Moreover, as Moscow notes, only the Sarmat and Vanguard complexes fall under START III. Currently, the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile is at the test stage, and the Vanguard winged unit has been adopted by one of the strategic missile forces.

“The United States is unhappy with the modernization of the nuclear triad that Russia and China are conducting. They believe that new types of weapons threaten their national security and require greater transparency, but the paradox is that without the START, the legal verification mechanisms will completely disappear, ”said Vadim, professor of the Academy of Military Sciences, an employee of the Center for Political Studies of Russia, in an interview with RT. Kozyulin.

  • Launch of the Yars heavy intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk cosmodrome
  • RIA News
  • © Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

At the end of May, on the air of Channel One, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov expressed confidence that "the Trump administration will enable the 2010 START III treaty to expire."

Meanwhile, in the United States itself there is no consensus on the fate of the START. In early June, Democratic Senator Robert Menendez introduced a bill calling for an “immediate extension to the START.”

Part of the overseas expert community also opposes the destruction of START III and other international agreements in the field of arms control. In December last year, the Russian-American non-governmental group Dartmouth Dialogue for the first time in almost 60 years of its existence appealed to the leadership of the Russian Federation and the United States with a call to extend the START Treaty. 

Analysts, including former US ambassador to Moscow James Collins, warned that with the collapse of this agreement, the nuclear arms race could begin again. In their opinion, only the system of international control of the strategic arsenal is capable of limiting the risks of military clashes between the two powers.

The Dartmouth Dialogue supports the inclusion of other nuclear powers in the treaty obligations, but the essence of the problem, of course, is not the point. The main danger is that START III will cease to exist altogether and, as a result, a completely effective basis for interaction will disappear. The intensity of contacts will fall, as a result, the situation with mutual trust will become even worse, and it will be very difficult to return to the negotiations with or without China, ”said Kozyulin.

The expert believes that with the expiration of the START treaty, the United States will not mass-produce ballistic missiles. However, he sees the main risk in eliminating the mechanisms of mutual inspections, reporting and consultations on the strategic arsenal. In this regard, both powers will be forced to intensify intelligence activity against each other, predicts Kozyulin.

As an expert of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Sergey Ermakov noted in an interview with RT, the Trump administration expects that, thanks to the refusal to extend the START, it will be possible to rebuild the nuclear missile control regime under American interests.

“The USA is striving to break all agreements and build a new regime at this place that would better meet Washington’s interests. The United States proceeds from the assumption that their national interests are more important than the views of partners. Such a one-sided approach is not positive for global security. It causes fair concern and resistance not only in Russia and China, but also among American allies in Europe, ”said the expert. 

Ermakov suggests that in the near future the United States may “bury” a moratorium on nuclear tests, while increasing investment in the development of new nuclear weapons. 

“Washington’s irresponsible policies could ultimately lead to the collapse of the nuclear proliferation regime. It is highly likely that the existing nuclear powers, looking back at the United States, will begin to increase their arsenals, and states devoid of nuclear weapons will begin to develop them. The consequences of the destruction of START III will be very serious. In the current situation, Washington needs to stop senseless bargaining, ”Yermakov concluded.