According to a poll conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), the rating of the President of Ukraine dropped below 40%. So, if the presidential elections were held in early June of this year, only 25.7% of citizens would vote for Vladimir Zelensky. At the same time, of those survey participants who have precisely decided on their choice, the current president would be supported by 37.6% of respondents.
The second place in the rating of sympathy of Ukrainians is occupied by ex-president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. For him, the results amounted to 11.1% of the total number of respondents and 16.2% excluding those citizens who have not yet decided on the choice, but plan to vote. Yuriy Boyko, the leader of the Opposition Platform - For Life party, was in third place: 9% and 13.2% of the participants, respectively, and Yulia Tymoshenko in fourth place. For it, 6% of the total number of survey participants and 8.7% of those who are determined are ready to cast their votes.
- Petro Poroshenko
- Reuters
- © Press service of European Solidarity Party / Mikhail Palinchak
At the same time, 2.6% of respondents said they would spoil the ballot, and 1.6% of the participants refused to answer questions, 11.3% are not going to vote, and 16.2% have not yet decided on their choice.
The party "Servant of the people" created by Zelensky also lost its position. In the event that the parliamentary elections were held at the beginning of this month, it could count on 17.1% of the vote. If converted to a percentage of the number of respondents who determined the choice, the result would be 28%.
The second place in the ranking of political parties was taken by the Opposition Bloc - For Life, which gained 10.8% and 17.7% of the vote, respectively.
Third place - in the party of Petro Poroshenko “European Solidarity”. 9.9% of the total number of respondents and 16.2% of the number of citizens who decided on the choice are ready to vote for it.
At the same time, 14.7% said they were not ready to vote in the elections, 3.3% would spoil the ballot, 19.4% had not yet decided on their preferences, and 1.6% refused to answer sociologists.
The survey was conducted from May 24 to June 4, 2020; 4 thousand respondents from all over the republic took part in the study.
At the same time, despite the fact that Petro Poroshenko ranks second in the ranking of political sympathies of Ukrainians, he is unlikely to be able to return to the presidency in the coming years, experts say.
“For the second time, Poroshenko cannot become president of Ukraine, although today he is the leader of the Ukrainian right. The growth of his rating was due to a drop in the rating of Vakarchuk and other right-wing politicians, ”said Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Kiev Institute for Analysis and Policy Management, in an interview with RT.
A similar point of view is shared by the president of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko.
“Poroshenko is unlikely to be able to be elected again, since his figure does not suit either the Ukrainian oligarchy or the West. Today, the limit of his dreams is to break into the premiere as a result of backstage arrangements.
As for the second most popular party, Opposition Platform - For Life, this is one of the few Ukrainian political forces with ideology, traditions and history, says Bortnik.
“However, if it comes to power, it is only in alliance with another political force. The electoral niche of the “Opposition Bloc” is in the region of 25-30%, and this is not enough to win, ”the expert explained.
“The opposition platform - For Life” is also unlikely to come to power, because Ukrainian oligarchs and nationalists are opposed to it, ”Ischenko explained in a comment to RT.
Rating curve
Recall that last spring, Vladimir Zelensky won the presidential election, leaving Petro Poroshenko far behind. In the second round of voting, he won 73.22% of the vote, while the current president at that time managed to get only 24.45% of the support.
Zelensky managed to maintain a high rating during the first months of the first months of his stay in power. So, in September 2019, 71% of citizens trusted him. Such results were obtained during a opinion poll conducted by the Rating group. At the same time, 55% of respondents agreed with the statement that the country was moving in the right direction.
- During the elections in Ukraine
- Reuters
- © Valentyn Ogirenko
At the same time, the pro-presidential party “Servant of the People” was inferior in popularity to its founder. In June 2019, it was supported by 47.5% of citizens who planned to take part in the vote. As a result of the parliamentary elections, the party won 43.16% of the vote.
By the end of the year, Vladimir Zelensky’s rating dropped to 52%, while anti-rating rose to 19%. Moreover, a decrease was noted throughout the fall - in October, 66% of Ukrainian citizens approved the actions of the president, and in early November - 64%. At the same time, the share of those who negatively assessed the activity of the head of state was growing - in September the percentage of skeptics was 7%, in October - 9%, and in early November - 12%. Such data were presented by KIIS.
During the election campaign, Vladimir Zelensky actively criticized the then current government. The former showman promised that in the event of his victory in the elections, Ukraine will expect big changes, and the previous orders tied to corruption and nepotism will be a thing of the past.
Zelensky guaranteed that he would pass a law on the abolition of parliamentary immunity - this idea was very popular in Ukrainian society during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma, then the vast majority of citizens voted for it in a referendum. However, the norm did not enter into force due to resistance from the Rada.
The situation changed under Zelensky - he signed the law on the abolition of the inviolability of people's deputies in December 2019. In addition, the law on impeachment of the head of state was adopted.
On the other hand, the new president took a step extremely unpopular among the country's population - lifted a long-standing moratorium on the sale of agricultural land.
The ban on the sale of agricultural land has been in force in Ukraine since 2001. Although the IMF has long insisted on the need to lift the moratorium, calling it one of the conditions for prolonging credit support for Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko did not dare to take these measures. According to a poll conducted by KIIS in February 2020, 62% of Ukrainian citizens oppose the liberalization of the land market in the country. This percentage of Ukrainians would vote against lifting the moratorium if the government put this issue to a referendum. Only 15% of respondents expressed support for the reform, while another 18% of respondents said that they would not vote at all on the land issue.
Note that land reform is not the only concession made by the IMF to the Zelensky government. Kiev agreed to other conditions of the fund, including the optimization of the healthcare system, as well as the rejection of state regulation of utility tariffs.
One of Zelensky’s campaign promises was also the settlement of the conflict in the Donbass. In his inaugural speech, the politician called this task "first" for himself.
- IMF building
- AFP
- © Karen BLEIER
“I can assure: so that our heroes no longer die, I am ready for anything. And I’m definitely not afraid to make difficult decisions, I’m ready to lose my popularity, my ratings, and if necessary, I’ll be ready to lose my position so that peace only comes, ”Zelensky said then.
However, the only advances in this direction so far remain the exchange of retained persons between Kiev and the self-proclaimed republics, as well as negotiations in the Norman format. Also in the fall of 2019, the Ukrainian authorities agreed to adopt the Steinmeier formula, which determines the procedure for implementing the Minsk agreements. But progress actually stopped there - Kiev is in no hurry to start implementing the political part of the agreements.
In the country of unfulfilled promises
“Zelensky is a politician without a program, ideology and team, he came to power at the peak of the request of the population of Ukraine for a policy of radical steps to solve social problems. And at the beginning of the term, he took a number of unpopular measures, taking advantage of the high level of support from the population. Now, most likely, Zelensky’s team will go into the regime of retaining power and will repeat Poroshenko’s steps, ”says Ruslan Bortnik.
In his opinion, the main reason for the downgrade of Zelensky was the president’s inefficiency in fulfilling his own campaign promises.
“Zelensky is a populist president who came to power promising to quickly solve all key problems. But so far, in no area has he achieved a result, including peace in the Donbass, in the fight against corruption. It was also influenced by the fact that he carried out land reform unpopular among the population. Most likely, the rating of Zelensky and the party “Servant of the People” will continue to decline, ”Bortnik predicts.
The same opinion is shared by Rostislav Ishchenko. He notes that the coronavirus pandemic did not affect Zelensky's rating - its popularity began to decline even before it.
“Zelensky initially had a rather motley electorate: some wanted peace, others counted on laxations in the language sphere, some relied on the prosecution of Poroshenko and the restoration of economic stability. 73% of those who voted for Zelensky are not one social group, they are different people with different political views, ”the expert noted, adding that Zelensky won the presidential election amid Poroshenko’s colossal unpopularity.
Ukrainians voted for Zelensky simply because he personified the changes, the type of a new, unsystematic politician, experts say. But in practice, it turned out that it differs little from its predecessors, and this is the reason for the disappointment of the population.
“If Zelensky suddenly starts abruptly fulfilling all his campaign promises, then he will probably be able to regain his former popularity. But this is from an incredible area. He had many opportunities to realize promises, since he received all the power. However, Zelensky decided to continue the policy of the previous president, ”concluded Ishchenko.