A survey by the Basque Government with one month to go before the 12J elections places the PNV as the undisputed winner of the elections by increasing its representation to 31 members of parliament . A forecast that would meet the objective of Ortuzar's party to grow with one more seat per Historical Territory but that will require him to return to agree almost certainly with the PSE-EE to achieve an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament that he yearns to address the consequences of the Covid-19 crisis without the pressure of the opposition parties in Euskadi.

The Basque Executive confirms in its survey the strength of the PNV that will grow in the three Historical Territories in the third consecutive elections with Iñigo Urkullu as headliner . The electoral poll, moreover, foresees that participation will remain practically at the same levels as four years ago, despite being the first appointment with the polls in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to these estimates made by the Lehendakaritza Sociological Prospecting team, abstention will range from 40% in Bizkaia and Álava to 41% in Gipuzkoa . In the 2016 elections, abstention in the Basque Country as a whole was 39.98% because 713,062 decided not to go to the polls.

The forecasts from the official poll also reward the PSE-EE, Urkullu's partner in the Basque Government. The socialists would go from 9 parliamentarians to 11 and represent Podemos, one of the forces that will suffer an electoral decline in Euskadi. Party Pablo Iglesias chose as candidate Look Gorrotxategi which caused an internal crisis to resign the leadership of the Lander Martinez Rosa Martinez had endorsed as a candidate. Podemos will hold other primaries this month to choose its new address in Euskadi to which the 'oficialista' Pilar Garrido and Marisa Gadea aspire. The poll places Podemos in fourth place with 8 parliamentarians , three fewer than in the last legislature.

The official survey also penalizes the new PP and Citizens coalition led by Carlos Iturgaiz . Of the 9 current parliamentarians, it would go to 6, and only one of them would be from the party of Inés Arrimadas when it collapsed in Bizkaia, where only Iturgaiz had his election practically guaranteed. The 'popular' aspire to at least a second parliamentarian for Bizkaia and have as reference the seat to the Congress achieved by Beatriz Fanjul in the count of the CERA vote in the 2019 general elections. PP and C's would add 4 Basque parliamentarians in Álava to endure growth of Vox that, according to this survey, would not enter by a few tenths in the Basque Chamber because the vote estimate leaves it with 2.5% of the ballots when it would need to reach at least 3%.

EH Bildu faces, according to this survey carried out between June 1 and 6, with good prospects the imminent electoral campaign despite the wear and tear suffered in the wave of graffiti by the radicals who have joined the protests led by ETA Patxi Ruiz. The abertzale coalition would win a parliamentarian to add 19, which mathematically opens two possibilities of agreements after 12J to form majorities.

On the one hand, PNV and PSE-EE would jointly obtain 42 parliamentarians in a Chamber with 75 representatives. The repetition of the coalition government launched in 2016 is the priority of both Andoni Ortuzar and Idoia Mendia, and the electoral growth of both parties would reinforce their desire to maintain this formula of generalized government in most Basque institutions. EH Bildu, PSE-EE and Elkarrekin Podemos would also reach the 38 parliamentarians but the socialists do not contemplate or support a government controlled by Otegi with Maddalen Iriarte as Lehendakari, nor do they question their alliances with a PNV turned into a pillar of the Executive of Pedro Sánchez in Madrid .

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  • PNV
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  • Álava
  • Bildu
  • Vox
  • Andoni Ortuzar
  • Carlos Iturgaiz
  • Citizens
  • Elkarrekin We Can
  • Inés Arrimadas
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  • Madrid
  • Pablo Iglesias
  • Basque Country
  • Basque Country Elections

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