OECD forecasts 6% or 7.6% contraction in the world economy this year
Xinhua News Agency, Paris, June 10 (Reporter Chen Chen) The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released an economic outlook report on the 10th, and proposed different assumptions about the control of the new crown epidemic and the second wave of outbreaks before the end of this year. Estimated economic prospects.
The report said that the new crown epidemic caused the worst economic recession in nearly 100 years. Although countries are gradually relaxing prevention and control measures, the road to world economic recovery is still full of uncertainty.
The report predicts that if a second wave of outbreaks occurs before the end of the year and causes localities to take quarantine restrictions again, the world economy will shrink by 7.6% this year and 2.8% in 2021; if the second wave of outbreaks is avoided, the world economy will shrink 6 %.
According to the OECD, the isolation restrictions adopted by European countries have a particularly serious economic impact. In the case of the second wave of outbreaks this year, the euro zone economy is expected to fall by 11.5%; in the absence of the second wave of outbreaks, the euro zone The economic decline is expected to exceed 9%.
In addition, if there is a second wave of outbreaks, the economic decline of the United States and Japan is expected to be 8.5% and 7.3% respectively this year; if there is no second wave of outbreaks, the U.S. and Japanese economies will decline by 7.3% and 6%, respectively. The report also believes that the economies of China and India are relatively less affected by the epidemic.
OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said that under the current circumstances, governments should take prudent and urgent measures to promote a resilient, inclusive and sustainable recovery of their economies.