- Covid, shock to the economy: Istat expects GDP to drop by 8.3 in 2020
- Istat, exceptional decrease in GDP in the first quarter of 2020
- ECB: record fall in GDP in Europe, the second quarter will be tougher
- GDP falling in OECD area: -1.8% due to the lockdown
- Bankitalia: GDP 2020 can drop by 9%, rebound by 4.8% in 2021
- Phase 2, Confcommercio: April consumption -47.6% and May GDP -16%
ShareJune 10, 2020 The Parisian body estimates that the Peninsula's GDP will experience an 11.3% drop in 2020, in a scenario without new waves of coronavirus infections, but 14% if a second wave will break out later. A rebound of 7.7% in the base scenario and 5.3% in the case of the new Covid wave is expected in 2021. But in any case at the end of 2021 Italy will not have recovered the fall in terms of GDP, while it will have lost the progress made before the crisis in terms of employment, says the OECD in the chapter on the Peninsula.
The OECD expects a deficit that would jump to 11.2% of GDP in 2020, in the scenario with a single Covid wave and a moderation in 2021, with a second wave instead the deficit would rise to 12.8% this year and then it would mark 9.7% in 2021. On this basis, it estimates that Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio will jump to 158% this year, due to the fallout of the pandemic crisis, but if a new wave of infections occurs, it will reach 169, 9%, to then score 165.5% in 2021.
Globally, in the study the OECD predicts a 6% contraction in GDP 2020 due to the pandemic crisis, but in the case of a second wave of infections, the collapse will be 7.6% on a global scale. The eurozone would suffer the sharpest contraction among the major economic areas, with a minus 11.5% in 2020 in the most severe scenario. Until a vaccine has been found, "the global economy will walk on a rope," warns the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
OECD: Italy, tourism sector particularly exposed
"Beyond the short-term risks related to the pandemic crisis, the main risk concerns the strength and duration of the recovery. The tourism sector in Italy is particularly vulnerable to a prolonged crisis in the so-called scenario with a 'double impact' (ie with a second wave of viruses in 2020, ed.), because tourism risks weakening in the medium term as well as small businesses in the sector, 52,000 only as regards housing ": this is what it reads in the sheet devoted to Italy of the OECD Economic Perspectives.