The OECD forecasts a global recession of 6% for 2020 if the Covid-19 pandemic "remains under control" and 7.6% in the event of a second wave, in its economic outlook published on Wednesday June 10.
For 2021, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development anticipates a strong rebound in the first case with growth of 5.2%, a rebound which would be limited to 2.8% in the event of a second wave.
As restrictions on # COVID19 are gradually lifted, the path to economic recovery appears very uncertain & vulnerable to a second wave of the epidemic.
More details in our news #Economic Outlook pect https://t.co/hmDr9F5QoE pic.twitter.com/iiBL5YOFSV
In early March, when the coronavirus had already hit China, but not yet the other major economies of the planet, the OECD was still counting on 2.4% global growth for the current year.
Whether or not there is a second epidemic wave, "by the end of 2021, the loss of income will exceed that of all previous recessions in the past hundred years, except in times of war, with dire and lasting consequences for people, businesses and governments, "said OECD chief economist Laurence Boone.
>> Read: The French economy will take at least two years to recover from the Covid-19
"Everywhere, confinement has reinforced the inequalities between workers", the most qualified able to telework while the young and the least qualified are "often on the front line" in the fight against the pandemic, notes the chief economist of the OECD.
The euro zone particularly affected
The Covid-19 also "accelerated the shift from a 'big integration' to a 'big fragmentation'" of the world economy with the appearance of "additional restrictions on trade and investment", according to Laurence Boone .
The euro area will be particularly affected with a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) expected to 9.1% in the most favorable scenario, and to 11.5% in the event of a second wave in 2020.
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For the United States, the OECD forecasts a decline in GDP of 7.3% or 8.5% respectively, depending on the scenario.
China, still championing growth last year with 6.1%, will also see its economy contract, by 2.6%, or even 3.7% this year if the virus resurfaces massively.
To allow the economy to recover, the OECD notably recommends "strengthening health systems", "facilitating changes in the professions while strengthening income protection", and "making supply chains more resilient ".
With AFP
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