Report says epidemic prevention and control policies in China and other six countries avoid about 530 million cases

　　Effects of "natural" evaluate prevention and control policies on the new pandemic virus crown of
　　interventions six countries to take the equivalent of about 530 million overall to avoid cases

　　Science and Technology Daily, Beijing, June 9 (Reporter Zhang Mengran) The British "Nature" magazine published an online report on the 8th, quantifying the large-scale anti-infection policies adopted by six countries, aimed at reducing the rate of infection of the new coronavirus These policies include closures and travel restrictions. Researchers used econometric methods to determine the health benefits of these policies and found that these interventions may prevent or delay approximately 62 million new cases of pneumonitis in 6 countries.

　　During the pandemic of the new coronavirus, governments around the world introduced various social policies, including closures, travel restrictions, and suspension of work and school, which may have considerable social and economic costs. However, these measures have reduced the spread of new coronavirus by limiting interpersonal contact.

　　Although previous epidemiological models can provide clues for deciding what measures to take, it is still a challenging task to directly assess the impact of these policies on infection rates.

　　Xiang Zhongjun, a researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, and his colleagues recently analyzed the daily rates of new coronavirus infections, the definition and implementation of new pneumonia cases in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States as of April 6, 2020. The timing of the infection policy analyzed the growth rate of viral infections in these countries before and after implementing more than 1,700 local, regional, and national policies.

　　They found that when the anti-infection policy was not fully in place, the rate of early infection of the new coronavirus in Iran increased by 68% daily, while the average daily growth rate of other countries was 38%. The team adopted an econometric model (the most typical use of this model is to assess the impact of policies on economic growth), indicating that large-scale social policies have significantly slowed the growth rate of new coronavirus infections, and in most cases have produced Measured health effects.

　　They estimate that in these six countries, these policies prevent or delay approximately 62 million confirmed cases of new pneumonia, which is equivalent to avoiding approximately 530 million infections overall.

　　The researchers believe that as more regional data becomes available, they will also be able to further optimize their research results. The combination of epidemiological simulation results with these empirical observations will help the government determine whether and when these policies need to be extended or cancelled.