China News Service, June 10 (He Luman, Liu Cong) Recently, the situation on the Korean peninsula has been turbulent again. The DPRK announced that it would "disconnect" with South Korea from noon on the 9th-cutting off all communication lines between the DPRK and South Korea. The South Korean side stated that according to the DPRK-ROK agreement, both parties should maintain contact channels.

　　What happened to North Korea's move? How will this "disconnection" affect the situation on the Korean Peninsula and the relationship between the ROK and the DPRK? In the face of the current situation, what is South Korea's position?

Data Map: Korean staff contact the DPRK through the DPRK-ROK Liaison Hotline.

Harbinger

　　On the morning of June 9, North Korea’s official news agency, the Korea Central News Agency, issued a statement saying that the relevant North Korean departments will completely cut off and abolish the DPRK-Korean communication line and the DPRK that have been maintained through the DPRK-ROK joint liaison office from 12:00 local time on the 9th. The East-West communication line between the Korean military, the North Korea-Korea communication test line, and the hotline communication line between the WPK Central Headquarters building and the Blue House.

　　This move by the DPRK may seem sudden, but it is not without trace. A few days ago, the DPRK released the signal against the ROK several times.

Figure 2 Information map: The first deputy minister of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, Kim Yo-jung.

　　On June 4, Kim Hae-jung, the first deputy minister of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, made a statement, strongly condemning the dissemination of anti-DPRK flyers by the "North Korean defectors" groups, and emphasized that the ROK will face the dismantlement and closure of the Kaicheng Industrial Park unless it takes corresponding measures The DPRK-ROK Liaison Office and the lifting of the "Agreement on the Implementation of the Consensus in the Military Field in the Declaration of Panmunjom" and other consequences.

　　The next day, a spokesman for the North Korean United Front Department again spoke, condemning the "North Korean defectors" from South Korea to North Korea for distributing anti-DPRK flyers, and the South Korean attitude of "tolerating this matter." The spokesman said that the first step of the DPRK is to close the DPRK-ROK liaison office in the Kaicheng Industrial Park, and other corresponding measures will be taken thereafter.

　　"Actually, this kind of connection with South Korea is cut off, but from a broader perspective, this reflects a kind of adjustment of North Korea's basic policy for South Korea." Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China and an expert on the Korean Peninsula issue, is accepting Xin Net reporter said in an interview.

　　Wang Sheng, a professor in the Department of International Politics at the School of Administration of Jilin University and a visiting scholar at the Asian Institute of Korea University, told China News that in fact the DPRK expressed dissatisfaction with the South Korean government. The second act is to exert pressure on South Korea through this matter. The purpose is to hope that the international community will attach importance to the development of DPRK-ROK relations, the situation on the Korean peninsula, or the development process of the DPRK-US nuclear negotiations.

On the afternoon of April 27, 2018 local time, the leaders of North and South Korea signed the "Panmendian Declaration" after a day of talks.

Or reopen

　　In fact, the North Korea-Korea Joint Liaison Office mentioned by North Korea has experienced many twists and turns since its establishment.

　　On April 27, 2018, South Korean President Wen Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un issued a "Panmendian Declaration" after they met in Panmunjom, announcing that both parties will work hard to realize the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the conversion of the suspension mechanism.

　　The joint liaison office is the first joint liaison office in the history of North Korea and Korea established in accordance with the contents of the "Panmendian Declaration", located in the Kaesong Industrial Park in North Korea.

　　According to the previous introduction of the Ministry of Unification of Korea, the agency will perform the functions of contact and negotiation between the DPRK and the ROK, intergovernmental talks and consultations, non-governmental exchanges and assistance, and facilitating the exchange of personnel between the DPRK and the ROK. The DPRK and South Korea will also discuss through the office on the implementation of the "Panmendian Declaration" such as the connection and modernization of north-south railways and highways, and mountain-forest cooperation.

On February 11, 2016 local time, in Paju City, South Korea, the Korean government decided to stop the operation of the Kaicheng Industrial Park, and Korean companies are preparing to withdraw from the Kaicheng Industrial Park.

　　For example, Wang Sheng said that after the Kaicheng Industrial Park was closed, it is now very difficult to recover. This time the DPRK did this, mainly "still a little disappointed with South Korea", hoping that South Korea can continue to promote (the development of DPRK-ROK relations). "North Korea's relations with the United States and South Korea cannot be achieved overnight, and all have to go through such repeated game processes," he pointed out.

　　After North Korea issued its communiqué on the 9th, South Korean authorities again called the DPRK on the morning through multiple channels of communication between the DPRK and the ROK, but the DPRK did not answer.

　　Will communication between North and South Korea really be interrupted?

　　"The closure may also be temporary. With the improvement or development of the DPRK-ROK relationship, it can be restored or reopened, not a permanent closure." Wang Sheng said.

Data map: On October 10, 2014 local time, a Korean civil society distributed anti-DPRK leaflets in Paju, South Korea. About 20,000 anti-DPRK leaflets were lifted off with balloons.

"Should be maintained"

　　On the day of Kim and Jung’s talk, South Korea’s Ministry of Defense spokesperson Cui Xianzhu at a regular press conference disseminated anti-DPRK leaflets on North Korea’s condemnation of “North Korean defectors” and mentioned that the DPRK and South Korea’s “September 19 Military Agreement” may be lifted According to one incident, the ROK’s position on upholding the implementation of the "Military Agreement" remains unchanged.

　　In addition, an official from the Ministry of Unification of the Republic of Korea also stated on June 7 that before Kim and Jung made a speech, the South Korean side had begun to advance the legislative work of the DPRK-related leaflets. It has nothing to do with the DPRK's talks, and the ROK will continue to take measures on the issue of DPRK leaflets.

On the afternoon of June 30, 2019 local time, US President Trump arrived in the North Korean Demilitarized Zone by helicopter. South Korean President Wen Jae-in also arrived at the same time.

　　Not only that, South Korea has also kept in touch with the "big brother" the United States.

　　The South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on the 7th that the South Korean and US diplomatic departments held working-level consultations to discuss the North Korean issue. South Korea and the United States maintain close communication on the North Korean issue, including the talks between Kim and Jung, and are closely following the relevant developments.

　　The Korean media speculates that South Korea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Peace Negotiations Minister Li Duxun and the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and Special Representative to the DPRK Beggen may exchange views on related matters in the near future. However, Zhang Liangui and Wang Sheng both experts said that the United States will not intervene.

　　"The relevant channels are the basic channels for communication and coordination between the DPRK and the ROK. According to the DPRK-ROK agreement, the two parties should maintain these communication channels." On the 9th, the South Korean Unification Ministry stated its position on the DPRK's announcement to close all communication channels between the DPRK and the ROK.

Figure 7 In June 2019, South Korea opened the first public walking tour of the Korea-DPRK demilitarized zone to the public. The picture shows tourists are walking on foot, surrounded by barbed wire around the trail. China News Service reporter Zeng Nashe

What about the future?

　　In fact, this is not the first time that the DPRK-ROK communication channel has been interrupted. Counting this time, North Korea and Korea have "broken" five times in the past 12 years.

　　How will the situation develop this time?

　　Zhang Liangui said that South Korea very much hopes that their "3.0 version of the sunshine policy" will achieve results, at this time it is impossible to take any retaliatory measures. If North Korea puts forward various requirements in the next step, South Korea will do it step by step.

　　"North Korea is very disgusted with some of the words and deeds of the'North Korean defectors', and South Korea should formulate some relevant policies on this issue." Wang Sheng pointed out that the most important issue in the situation on the Korean peninsula is the development of DPRK-ROK relations. In particular, South Korea should actively promote the development of bilateral relations to promote the development of other bilateral relations.

　　Wang Sheng analyzed that the situation on the Korean peninsula may remain as it is until the results of the November election in the United States. But whether North Korea can wait until then is still unknown. If North Korea wants all parties to step up the process of negotiating the situation on the peninsula, it may release some pressure chips. (Finish)