The containment measures decided to deal with the Covid-19 were effective in regaining control of the pandemic and made it possible to avoid 3.1 million deaths in 11 European countries, estimates a study published Monday.

Conducted by Imperial College London, whose scientists advise the British government on the health crisis, this study analyzes the main measures taken in 11 countries including France, such as banning public events, restricting travel or closing of shops and schools.

"Measuring the effectiveness of these measures is important, given their economic and social impact", underline its authors, while the magnitude of the collateral effects of confinement is regularly underlined and that certain voices are raised, notably in the United Kingdom , to demand the acceleration of the lifting of the restrictions.

A declining virus reproduction rate

The researchers compared the number of deaths recorded on the database of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control with the number of deaths that would have occurred in the absence of control measures, estimated by mathematical modeling.

Their article, published in the journal Nature, also estimates that they have made it possible to reduce by 82% on average the reproduction rate of the virus (the number of new people infected by each infected person), allowing to bring it back below 1, threshold below which the number of new cases decreases.

The researchers also calculate that on May 4, 12 to 15 million people were infected with Covid-19 (or 3.2% to 4% of the population on average, with significant variations depending on the country).

In Europe, Belgium particularly affected

Belgium would therefore have the highest infection rate, with 8% of the population having contracted the coronavirus, followed by Spain (5.5%), the United Kingdom (5.1%) and Italy (4.6%). 

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This figure would be 3.4% in France. Conversely, only 710,000 Germans have contracted the virus, or 0.85% of the population.

The authors point out that since the measures followed each other on a short schedule, it is difficult to assess the impact of each of them separately.

They nevertheless conclude that "containment had a substantial effect" on controlling the epidemic.

The 11 countries studied are Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, France, Italy, Norway, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland.

With AFP

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