Coronavirus: the French economy should take 2 years to recover

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In France, 2020 promises to be a dark year on the economic front. Although the activity has restarted since the gradual lifting of containment, it will take many months to recover the level before the confinement. This is what the Banque de France has just published its forecasts.

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In its macroeconomic projections, the Banque de France predicts for this year a new recession of 10%, a surge in unemployment, and an increase in debt up to 120%. According to the institution's economists, the French economy will need two years to recover.

In the second quarter of this year, activity will fall by almost 15%, then by 10% in the third quarter and by 7% in the fourth quarter. The Banque de France then forecasts a very gradual recovery. After a 10% drop in GDP this year, we should see a rebound in growth of just over 7% in 2021. It was not until mid-2022 that the economy French will return to its level at the end of 2019.

Unemployment is expected to peak around June 2021, at 11.8%, a loss of more than a million jobs compared to the beginning of this year. It is only from the second half of 2021 that unemployment will start to decrease. And it is only in 2022 that employment will increase again with an unemployment rate that will drop to 9.7%.

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• France
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• Economic crisis
• Coronavirus