【Global Times Special Correspondent in the United Kingdom and Germany, Ji Shuangcheng, Sun Weiqingmu, Global Times reporter Zhang Wang, Ding Yuqing】In January this year, when the British government made a decision to approve Huawei's "limited" participation in the construction of the country's 5G network, many international observers praised the British leadership People are not afraid of pressure or the courage to be an American blind follower. But in recent times, from seeking to establish a "Democratic Partnership Club" called "D10" to planning to reduce Huawei's share of the UK's infrastructure to zero by 2023, news of Britain's rejection of Huawei has been frequently reported. It was decided to let go for a while, and now it has been reevaluated. What happened in the UK in the past few months? "British diplomacy has always been'flexible'," Chinese scholar Cui Hongjian told the Global Times reporter. "You can take a step forward today, and you can take a step back tomorrow. The premise is that you have enough things to exchange with him."
Timeline since this year
"Huawei is launching a newspaper and internet campaign to commemorate its 20 years of business in the UK." According to a report by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) on the 8th, in an open letter to the public, the company said that it would promise as before Continue to provide the best equipment. The article said that the UK is currently conducting a new round of security reviews of Huawei, which may lead to a government ban on the use of Huawei 5G network equipment.
According to the British "Financial Times", Huawei has been increasingly attacked by members of the British Conservative Party and the US government in the past few weeks. Huawei has decided to respond publicly, emphasizing its commitment to the United Kingdom over the past 20 years. Huawei Vice President Zhang Jiangang said that Huawei grew up in the UK and contributed to improving British communications, but many people still mistake Huawei for a state-owned company. He reminded that the United Kingdom is trying to recover from the Brexit challenge and the impact of the new crown epidemic. If Huawei withdraws from 5G construction and fixed networks, the British economic losses will reach billions of pounds.
The UK has changed on the Huawei issue. According to media reports on the 7th, the British House of Commons Foreign Affairs Task Force Chairman Tugendhat made five suggestions for China, including "protecting the independence of the British electronic communications industry, and changing the decision on Huawei is only the first step." The "first step" here refers to the fact that some members including him recently urged the Conservative government to give up cooperation with Huawei as soon as possible, at least to force Huawei to withdraw from the British communications market in 2023.
This should start from the beginning of the year. On January 28 this year, the day before US Secretary of State Pompeo visited London, British Prime Minister Johnson announced that the country would continue to use Huawei 5G technology. The specific decision is that “high-risk suppliers” are not allowed to participate in the construction of the core network and other sensitive facilities of 5G networks and Gigabit broadband networks, and can participate in the construction of non-sensitive parts of the network, but their market share is limited to 35%.
In April, Simon McDonald, an official of the British Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that the British government’s decision to allow Huawei to participate in the construction of the UK’s 5G network will not be easily changed, and as far as he knows, the government will not discuss the decision again.
In late May, British media reported that Johnson planned to reduce China's Huawei's participation in the development of the country's 5G network infrastructure to zero by 2023. At the end of May, several British media said that the British government was seeking to form an alliance of 10 so-called democratic countries to provide the UK with a 5G network.
On June 1, a British government spokesperson told the outside world that whether Huawei could continue to participate in the UK's 5G construction is still to be determined. The UK needs to conduct a further evaluation of the previous US new regulations to determine the relevant impact on the UK's 5G construction. On June 2, Johnson presided over the second National Security Conference since cabinet members attended the New Crown Outbreak. British media said that one of the key points of this meeting is to discuss whether it is necessary to expand cooperation with traditional allies in the communications market and find enterprises that can replace Huawei.
In fact, these changes have a track to follow. In early March, 38 members of the Conservative Party voted against letting Huawei join the UK's 5G network construction. The number of people exceeded expectations. Their "reason" is that Huawei has a close relationship with the Chinese government, and conservative lawmakers, including Tugendhat, hope to exclude the so-called "high-risk suppliers" in the communication system in a few years. Tugendhat proposed at the time that Britain could not just regain its sovereignty from Brussels, but would have to hand it over to Beijing.
On April 4, a group of 15 Conservative MPs wrote a letter to Johnson one day before he was admitted to the hospital for new coronary pneumonia, asking him to reconsider his relationship with China. Entering May, Huawei's market prospects in the UK were once again pushed to public opinion. In the same month, British officials and Japanese network equipment supplier Japan Electric Company (NEC) and South Korean network equipment supplier Samsung Electronics held discussions on 5G matters.
According to the BBC report, the "catalyst" for the UK to reconsider the Huawei issue is that in early May, the United States restricted Huawei from buying chips based on "national security". The British National Cyber Security Center is studying how this will affect the UK network using Huawei technology. . Analysts believe that this paved the way for the British government to “turn around” and also help ease relations with the White House.
However, everything has not settled. Germany’s “Focus” Weekly stated that the UK has not yet fully prepared to exclude Huawei’s 5G and has not yet fully resolved to exclude Huawei. "This is more like a trial of China and the United States. There have been many trials of this kind. This is understandable because the United Kingdom cannot lose the United States or stay away from China. Like Germany and other countries, the most realistic measures are not excluded. Huawei 5G, but it can be limited."
Who is rendering "building a nest for the dragon"
Many analysts believe that the British attitude towards Huawei and even China is obviously related to the United States. "The United Kingdom is undergoing a'thinking change' in Beijing". In May this year, Elwood, chairman of the British National Defense Committee, told the US "politics" website. He also claimed that this is related to China's handling of the epidemic. "Politics" website said that this statement coincided with the escalation of attacks on China by US President Trump and his "ally", and it is exactly the same as US Secretary of State Pompeo's accusations against Beijing.
In the past few months, the United States has exerted a lot of pressure on British lobbying. In addition to Trump’s personal warning, in mid-January, the US Assistant Deputy President of National Security Affairs Bottinger led a US delegation to visit Britain. During this period, US officials said that the use of Huawei technology by 5G in the UK was “crazy”; January 29 On Sunday, Pompeo issued a warning to the United Kingdom to allow Huawei to participate in the construction of some 5G networks; in March, a cross-party group composed of 20 US senators called on the UK to reverse its Huawei policy; on June 2, US anti-China lawmaker Corton was in the UK Congressional Defense Committee meeting declared that cooperation with Huawei will damage the US-UK special relationship...
"Besides the American factors, the previous decision made by the United Kingdom was not very stable and was the result of internal balance in the United Kingdom." Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on the 8th that the British government is internal and conservative. Within the party, between the two parties, and public opinion, there has been a lot of controversy over whether Huawei can enter the UK 5G. The previous results are very "fragile." During this period, on the one hand, the epidemic had an impact on bilateral relations, and on the other hand, due to problems such as Hong Kong, the balance supporting the previous decision was broken. The previous balance result believes that Huawei cannot be replaced in the short term, so from a market and technology perspective, the United Kingdom must choose Huawei, but due to pressure from the United States or security considerations, Huawei must be set a limit. Now bilateral relations and security considerations prevail.
Within the British government, most of the opponents of Huawei are those responsible for internal affairs, security and national defense, diplomacy, and economic and trade. This group relatively supports Huawei's participation in the construction of 5G in the UK. Cui Hongjian said that the British Parliament has always been negative, and the lower house, especially the Foreign Relations Committee, has always been conservative on the Sino-British issue. At other levels, some so-called right-wingers in the UK, such as think tanks and the media, are critical of Huawei. They form a confluence among the people, exerting influence on the parliament, and thus affecting government decision-making. At the same time, the British right is moving closer to the extreme right, and their criticism of Huawei will grow louder.
As mentioned earlier, the British "released" Huawei earlier, which caused a negative reaction in the parliament's Chinese hawks. For example, Duncan Smith, the former leader of the Conservative Party, said in March that Conservative lawmakers have security concerns about Huawei because Huawei is a company wholly owned by Chinese trade unions and controlled by the Chinese state. On June 5, some anti-China lawmakers from the eight countries including the United States and Britain established the so-called "Transnational Parliamentary Union for China Policy", among them was him. Tugendhat is also a representative. In May last year, he said in parliament that allowing Huawei to participate in the construction of 5G in the UK is equivalent to "building a nest for the dragon."
"We are now seeing the issue against Huawei from the voice of British hawks," European policy analyst Frank Richter told the Global Times reporter. "Some British politicians play a game of condemnation... I did not see This is the case in other European countries."
The hawks in Richter's mouth arrived on April 26 with a more specific title-"China Research Group." In addition to the leader Tugendhat, the members also include 10 people including Duncan Smith. It is said that there are currently more than 50 members. Some people in the group also made a big speech about China's response to the epidemic. In this regard, Kerry Brown, Dean of the China Institute of King’s College London in the United Kingdom, told Japan’s “Nikkei Asia Review”: “Suddenly because of the epidemic, British politicians'discovered' China. They suddenly realized that there was a name called'China' This is why many people are looking for political opportunities."
Excluding Huawei, what is the cost of the UK
The relationship between Britain and Huawei began in the early 21st century. In 2001, Huawei UK was established. In 2005, five years after entering the UK market, Huawei's business achieved a major breakthrough-starting to assist the UK's largest telecommunications operator, BT, to upgrade its network. In 2010, the UK decided to allow Huawei to supply critical components to the BT network, but set up a Cyber Security Evaluation Committee to monitor and test Huawei’s products.
"Will Huawei really disappear from the UK's 5G network?" German News TV said that British operators are already using Huawei equipment, and even Nokia and Ericsson will have difficulty replacing Huawei. 35% of the UK's 4G technology transmits signal base stations from Huawei. BT, Vodafone and the "3" (Telecommunications) early 5G network all use Huawei equipment. Huawei technology is at least nine months to a year ahead of other competitors. In addition to the time to change equipment, disabling Huawei will cause the UK 5G network to be two years behind.
According to research data published by Mobile UK, the UK network operator trade organization, last year, the ban on Huawei’s participation will seriously affect the progress of 5G and cause the British economy to lose up to 7 billion pounds. Huawei’s main 5G competitors are Nokia and Ericsson, two European companies. A study commissioned by Huawei last year stated that the reduction in competition will increase a country’s 5G investment costs by 8% to 29%.
Huawei is also an important player in the UK fixed-line broadband. British regulator Telecommunications Agency (Ofcom) said that 44% of ultra-fast all-fiber equipment in UK homes, offices and other buildings is currently provided by Huawei. To reduce Huawei’s share, BT’s Openreach department tried to use more of the kits provided by Nokia and Adtran, but this ignored the fact that another set of fiber optic signals could only reach the roadside cabinet , The final link is provided by the copper base, and the thousands of roadside cabinets involved are Huawei.
Even Huawei’s opponents admit that it is unrealistic to completely abandon Huawei in the short term. For Prime Minister Johnson, the situation seems even worse, he has promised to increase the UK's data speed to gigabit levels by 2025. But from the current situation, the British government is indeed reconsidering the decision about Huawei, even if it means a high price.
The American "Forbes" magazine said that this is not surprising in many ways. Insiders said that supporting Huawei was the idea of Johnson's predecessor. He was never particularly enthusiastic about it. On the other side of the Atlantic, the hostility towards Huawei is more obvious. Sharing information with the United States is crucial to the national security of the United Kingdom, let alone the Prime Minister is hoping to reach a transatlantic trade agreement with the United States. But adopting such policies that serve Washington’s interests is very risky. If the UK shuts out Chinese companies, the bilateral trade between the UK and China will exceed US$90 billion per year.
Germany’s “Economic Weekly” said on the 7th that while excluding Huawei’s 5G, the Johnson government was worried about economic relations with the world’s second-largest economy, and that large British companies might become victims. “One thing is certain, if the United Kingdom excludes Huawei Outside, there will be a price to pay. And, this is just the beginning." The German "Le Monde" believes that the United Kingdom has become a weak person sandwiched between two superpowers, and is "captured" by the United States to contain China.
"How to develop next depends on whether other factors will change." Cui Hongjian told the "Global Times" reporter, technically speaking, to what extent Huawei can be replaced, is still the main issue to be considered by the United Kingdom. If China can let Britain see the prospect of developing relations with China, the British will think again. He believes that British diplomacy does not have many real ideological considerations, and it is more flexible. It always seeks to be "paired" with you. For example, it used to be afraid of Russia and the entire West, but it jumped out to fight and engage in diplomatic wars from time to time. "One of its characteristics is that there are many adjustments in small steps. Today you can take a step forward, and tomorrow you can take a step back, provided you have enough things to exchange with him."