Washington (AFP)

The longest economic expansion in US history came to an abrupt end in February. And the world's largest economy then entered a recession as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, a committee making the news announced on Monday.

"The peak of monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in February 2020," said the Economic Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

"This peak marks the end of the expansion that started in June 2009 and the start of a recession," he adds.

The growth will have lasted 128 months, or nearly 11 years.

Given the brutality of the economic shock, this independent body has even revised its definition.

Traditionally, a recession has meant a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) for at least two consecutive quarters.

But, the committee "concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its extent throughout the economy, deserve to present this episode as a recession, even if it were to prove to be shorter than previous contractions. "

The pandemic, which spread to the United States earlier this year, has left almost 110,000 dead to date, according to official figures.

It brought the world's first economy to its knees.

In all the countries where the new coronavirus has struck, local authorities have taken more or less severe containment measures.

In the United States, containment measures were gradually put in place from mid-March before peaking in April.

Whole swathes of the economy, in particular transport, tourism, hotels and catering as well as the leisure sector were then shut down. In addition, part of manufacturing production was simply stopped.

As a direct result, in two and a half months, 43 million Americans have registered as unemployed.

In the first quarter alone, GDP fell by almost 5%. And economists predict that it will unscrew by around 20% in the second when the containment measures hit the majority of the population.

- Gradual recovery or strong rebound? -

However, the largest economy in the world showed some signs of recovery in May thanks to the partial reopening of part of the federated states.

The economy has also benefited from a vast state support plan which has granted 3,000 billion dollars in aid to businesses and individuals.

Thousands of billions of additional dollars have also been injected in the form of cash provided by the United States Central Bank.

Outsmarting forecasts, the unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in May, when the most pessimistic analysts saw it approaching 20%.

And 2.5 million jobs were created, against 8.5 million destroyed jobs expected.

For the White House, no doubt, this unexpected rebound is due to the revival of economic activity, which President Donald Trump has been demanding for long weeks, and which began in May in certain states.

The Trump administration is also convinced that the rebound at the end of the year will be particularly sustained.

In mid-May, Fed chairman Jerome Powell was much more cautious, arguing that more budget aid would likely be needed to support a recovery.

He then considered probable a peak at 20 or 25% of the unemployment rate, and a fall of 20 or 30% of the GDP in the second quarter.

The head of the Federal Reserve is eagerly awaited Wednesday when he will speak at the end of the meeting of the monetary committee.

The Fed's economic survey, published at the end of May, had highlighted "very uncertain" prospects.

The companies in the country questioned were then mostly "pessimistic about the potential rate of recovery".

On the household side, consumer confidence certainly improved slightly in May, according to the bi-monthly survey from the University of Michigan.

But for the time being, they have not yet accelerated their non-essential expenses, which are essential to restart the economy in the long term.

In the United States, consumption is the traditional engine of growth.

© 2020 AFP