The "Orient 21" report highlights the shift in the balance of power in Libya in favor of the Al-Wefaq government, thanks to Turkish support, the cohesion of its forces, and the refusal of the residents of the western military dictatorship, in exchange for France's relapse in support of Haftar.
The report says that the wind is blowing in favor of the ruling coalition in Tripoli, as its forces have recovered several cities from Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. It is true that this is happening with Turkish support, but also with the support of residents who seem to be resuming the idea of a military dictatorship.
The many regional and international powers interfering in Libya may try to avoid the possibility of an escalation, the first of which is France, which has aligned with Haftar.
It is a time of joy in the Martyrs' Square in Tripoli on the evening of May 19, a hot day in Ramadan. Residents of the Libyan capital could not celebrate for a long time. Tripoli residents are anxious for a near victory, after they had been the target of bombing Haftar forces for several months, and they were worried by the spread of the Corona virus, in addition to suffering from daily water and electricity cuts, supply difficulties and the accumulation of household waste.
No one wants to miss the opportunity to see the presentation of the huge anti-aircraft vehicle "Pantzier" that was captured the day before by Fayez al-Sarraj (the National Accord Government) forces at the Al-Wattia air base, the last bastion of Haftar, west of Tripoli.
This Russian air defense system, which the UAE recently delivered to Haftar forces, summarizes what happened in Libya in recent weeks. The war scales turned in favor of the Al-Wefaq government forces, as the initiative moved to the opposite line, while the "Libyan National Army" experienced one setback after another, whose spokesman continues to describe it as "tactical withdrawals."
Turkish support
Within weeks, the Al-Wefaq government forces recovered scores of cities in Tripoli, which had previously declared their loyalty to Haftar before the successful attack on the huge al-Wataya airbase.
50 km southeast of Tripoli, the city of Tarhuna, Haftar's last stronghold in the region, was besieged, as Major General Osama al-Juili, commander of the western military sector in the National Accord Government, announced that the city would be the next target of his forces, and then took control of it.
Turkey's military support for the Al-Wefaq government was a decisive factor in Tripoli's victories. The bombing operations that were led by drones delivered by the Emirates to Haftur and the mercenaries of the Russian "Wagner Group", before the gradual reinforcement of Turkish support, succeeded in thwarting any attempt to control Tripoli.
Turkish participation has enabled the situation to be restored to balance by providing two: intelligence and bombing drones. The ability to bomb supply lines, command centers and enemy positioning positions, day and night, then played a decisive role.
However, this victory is due first to the forces of the National Accord government, which have succeeded in overcoming their differences, bridging the fault lines within them, and organizing themselves to fight what it regards as the danger of establishing a military dictatorship in its country.
The recent events of those who talk about chaos to characterize the situation in Libya - and they often themselves who believe that an authoritarian and even a military regime is the only alternative to this "chaos" - have proven that the opposite is true.
These events highlight the continuing aspirations of the Libyan people, the vast majority of whom reject the military regime, and this is also evident through popular consultations held in 2018, as part of the national conference process launched by the then United Nations Special Representative, Ghassan Salameh.
A political option
In his stronghold in Barqa (east), criticism began to be heard regarding the Haftar attack, despite the absence of dissent or dissident voice. On April 27 last year, the reporter's announcement that the people “entrusted him with running the country” sparked few positive responses, represented in some small demonstrations that appeared to be organized by his security services.
Moreover, Aqeelah Saleh, Speaker of Tobruk Parliament and traditional supporter of Haftar, launched his own political initiative just hours before that statement, which specifically aims to turn the current presidential council into a council composed of a president and two vice presidents, each of whom hails from the three historical regions of Libya (Tripoli, Barqa and Fezzan).
This Aqeelah’s announcement did not in any way refer to Haftar’s “mandate”, and Western officials did not reject this political initiative, not only because they saw in it a potential to weaken the other camp, but also because some of them considered it the basis of a credible political option to emerge from the crisis .
It is difficult to predict what will happen in the future, because the war is not over, and the variables are many. Since 2011, Libya has been the scene of increased international intervention, until it has turned into a kind of "voice box" that reflects the conflicts of regional and international powers and conflicts of interests between them.
Even if the Libyans are able today to find a political option to end the crisis, this option will not be achieved in the absence of the minimum level of unity, or at least without the commitment of external parties to stop their military support to the parties to the conflict.
A good example is that of Field Marshal Hifter’s refusal to commit to a Russian-Turkish ceasefire, which he expressed in Moscow in mid-January.
French support
As for France, whose former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, rushed to take the war decision and toppled the Gaddafi regime in 2011, not only refused to condemn the Haftar attack on April 4, 2019, on Tripoli, but also consistently refused to hold him responsible for the war.
Paris has been keen over the past thirteen months not to take a clear position and bias towards either side, while turning a blind eye to the Marshal and its main arms supplier, that is: the Emirates.
Even before the Haftar attack, he was encouraged by Paris' support - or what he considered to be it - in his military option. In this regard, we cite an excerpt from an article in the newspaper “Le Figaro” on March 20, 2019, which appears to have increased in importance over time.
"At the Libyan National Army headquarters, near Benghazi, in eastern Libya, one might think that in Switzerland. The grass is well cared for, and the flowers have just been watered. General Haftar's men are more disciplined and open than the militias of Tripoli.
A beautiful scent emits inside the headquarters. The carpet is very clean and serves tea (for guests). “You haven't been to me for a long time,” thus Haftar’s tall, confident and confident successor, Jean-Yves Le Drian, received a huge golden eagle, one of the emblems of Libya.
“We were waiting for your victories!” Le Drian replied with a quick spontaneity. Clearly, the two men respect each other. "
This essay, which embodies the pervasiveness of the prevailing press towards the government and the apparent bias of the cursor, requires its context. We are at the end of March 2019, when Haftar launched an attack a few weeks ago aiming to regain control of southern Libya.
A few hundred Libyan Arab National Army men, led by Khalifa Haftar and with the support of local allies, managed to find a foothold in the main cities of the south.
The intense communication campaign that accompanied the process and the positive reception it received from residents - who feel they have been abandoned since 2011 - made some observers believe in a promising victory awaiting the counselor.
For France, which is militarily participating in the Sahel, the operation to retake southern Libya by a military man was welcome.
Many in the Ministry of Defense, as well as in the vicinity of President Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Yves Le Drian, played the card for the return of a strong regime in Libya.
Jean-Yves Le Drian - who left his position as defense minister two years ago - was one of the owners of this vision in the name of the "war on terror".
This illustrates France's perception of its interests, in addition to the interests of its military industrial complex, and the objectives of the war of its army heavily involved in the African Sahel region. In April 2019, some analysts in Paris, especially among Macron's consultants, expected Haftar to be able to recover Tripoli within a few days.
The national conference failed
In parallel, the UN envoy Ghassan Salameh was in charge of organizing the national conference that was scheduled to take place on April 15 in Ghadamis (400 km south of Tripoli), and the aim of the conference was to adopt a national charter and a road map.
This conference did not take place on April 4. While UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was on an official visit to Tripoli, Haftar launched his surprise attack on the capital.
The Security Council, which met on April 18, appeared divided, and this division within the Council continues to this day, but there are indications that things may change, after the military setbacks of al-Mushar.
The latter's announcement of a large-scale air attack and continued military reinforcements flowing to both camps raised concerns about a possible military escalation, which appears to have increased the determination of regional and international powers to avoid the worst.
US moves
After meeting his French and Turkish counterparts on May 19 and 20, US President Donald Trump called for a de-escalation in Libya, and Russian and Turkish leaders announced their agreement on the need to reach an agreement in Libya.
Perhaps this agreement was mainly aimed at securing the withdrawal of hundreds of Wagner mercenaries who were fighting alongside forces loyal to Haftar, south of Tripoli.
Thus, they managed to reach Bani Walid airport safely before they left the Libyan west by air on May 24.
For his part, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called Al-Wefaq Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and began contacts with Haftar.
For many observers in Tripoli, Pompeo’s connection to al-Sarraj confirms that Washington has learned lessons from Haftar’s military setbacks, and that it was about to review its flexible neutrality toward it.
As for Russia, which has never neglected its relations with a number of actors in the Tripoli region, it changed its tone towards Al-Mashir by condemning the April 27 “referendum” and by supporting the political initiative of Aqeelah’s community.
It is too early to tell whether Haftar's arc - at least in its current form - is about to close.
Is the UAE ready to give up its military support for Marshal, without strong stimulus from the United States and France? In this regard, the spectrum of establishing Turkish strategic bases in Tripoli and the prospect of the Turks settling there over the long term is the main argument of Khalifa Haftar to fight the former “Ottoman colonizer”.
This sensitive justification has a major impact on the residents of Cyrenaica, and some of them do not support the political ambitions of the Marshal. The prospect of a Turkish position in Tripoli is also a major inconvenience to the UAE and Egypt, where you see a danger of support for the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood. And like Cairo, Paris sees the emergence of a new force in Libya, a threat to its strategic interests in North Africa and the Sahel.
The resumption of political dialogue
Nothing is certain. Ironically, the moment might be conducive to reducing escalation and the resumption of political negotiations, under the auspices of the United Nations.
As reminded of this by Stephanie Williams, the Acting Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General in Libya, in her quarterly report to the Security Council on May 19, the idea of restructuring the Presidential Council around a president and two vice presidents is one of the realistic goals of resuming political dialogue, the first session of which was held in Geneva in February.
On May 5, al-Sarraj approved this new structure, which is in line with the Speaker's initiative on April 23.
The success of the upcoming rounds of political dialogue, under the auspices of the United Nations, depends on the participation and engagement of all Libyan parties. The absence, exclusion or marginalization of any of the parties from this political forum - as was the case in Skhirat in 2015 - will have the same disastrous consequences for the Libyans.
The current war - contrary to what many observers affirm - is not a confrontation between East and West. If history, geography, physical conditions of life and social structures help shape the various regional identities between Tripoli and Cyrenaica, then this did not prevent a Libyan national feeling.
This sense of belonging to the same nation has resisted the destruction of the state, various foreign interventions, nine years of divisions and the absence of stability.
The great diversity of the indigenous population (urban dwellers, Bedouins, mountain dwellers, Berbers, etc.) in addition to the fragmentation left by the 2011 war, led to the emergence of a political culture of negotiation and settlement, which is embodied in the government of national reconciliation in Tripoli. In Cyrenaica, the social structures around the large Bedouin tribes managed to more easily adapt to a hierarchical authority and a military style of government.
The road will be long and difficult, but the goal is not out of reach. As for Jean-Yves Le Drian, if he was waiting for Haftar's upcoming victories before visiting him again, he feared that he would have to wait a long time.