In the heart of Cairo, accompanied by his militarily defeated ally, Libyan General Khalifa Haftar, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi stood up to announce a political initiative aimed at ending the conflict in Libya.

During a press conference with the Tobruk Speaker Aqila Saleh and retired Major General Khalifa Haftar in Cairo yesterday, Sisi said, "The Cairo agreement aims to ensure fair representation of all three regions of Libya in a presidential council elected by the people under the supervision of the United Nations, and obligate all foreign parties to remove mercenaries. Foreigners from all Libyan lands, dismantling the militias and surrendering their weapons.

Al-Sisi confirmed that the Libyan army chief, Khalifa Hifter, and the Speaker of the Libyan Tobruk Parliament, Aqila Saleh, have a commitment to the interest of the Libyan people, stressing the importance of reaching a political initiative to end the conflict in Libya.

Today I had the honor of meeting with Counselor Aqila Saleh and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, Commander-in-Chief of the Libyan Armed Forces at Federal Palace this morning, which resulted in Cairo's announcement of a Libyan-Libyan initiative to end the crisis and reach a peaceful settlement that includes the unity and integrity of national institutions and Libya's strong return to the international community pic.twitter. com / go1Yh55YEo

- Abdelfattah Elsisi (@AlsisiOfficial) June 6, 2020

Immediately, the UAE announced its welcome to the Sisi initiative, followed by the rest of the countries supporting Haftar - namely Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Russia and France - and the United States announced its welcome to the initiative, while the initiative rejected the internationally recognized government of reconciliation, and Turkey is its main supporter.

In December 2015, the Libyan parties signed a political agreement that resulted in the formation of a presidential council leading the Al-Wefaq government, and the creation of a higher state council, but Haftar has sought for years to block it and topple it.

With the support of Arab countries - led by the United Arab Emirates and Egypt - and France - led by France - Haftar militias launched on April 4, 2019 an attack that managed to blockade the capital Tripoli (west) and if it was not able to enter it, but suddenly and for only two weeks, his forces lost all Its locations in the west of the country.

Observers confirm that the initiative is of no value, as the Sisi regime is a non-neutral mediator between the two parties to the conflict in Libya, while others saw the initiative as evidence of Sisi 's commitment to support Haftar until the end.

Observers said that Haftar's recent defeats and his successive withdrawal from the Libyan West made the bet on him a loser, especially since the countries that support him do not explicitly announce their military support for fear of international blame, just as Sisi will not venture to push the Egyptian army towards Libya, where he will inevitably face his generals rejecting this adventure. , In addition to the existence of more dangerous files threatening the core of the country's national security, including the Renaissance Dam and armed violence in the Sinai.

Haftar's alternative

The Libyan researcher, Alaa Farouk, considered that the Egyptian President's initiative came after communication and understandings with the French and Italian sides, that it is necessary to search for political solutions, and that there is almost an international consensus to reject military solutions in Libya.

Faruq said in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net that "the initiative came as well after Haftar's military defeats and his loss of strategic concentrations in the Libyan West, the last of which was the fall of cities that represented operations rooms for the Libyan general, such as Tarhuna."

Farouq emphasized that it was natural that the initiative did not receive any acceptance at the Libyan West camp, especially the military ones, as it came at a time when they were advancing militarily.

It is not excluded that the Libyan reconciliation government will come under special international pressure from France and Russia to accept the Egyptian initiative, according to Farouk, in particular that this initiative is a recycling of the initiative of the last Speaker of Tobruk Parliament.

The spokesman expressed his surprise at the continued betting of the Egyptian regime on Haftar and his project despite his successive defeats, stressing that Haftar will disappear from the political and military scene soon, as a search for an acceptable alternative is taking place now, and Parliament may take a decision by society to isolate it as a matter of saving face, especially with high voices In the Libyan East, it is against him and against his escalatory steps, including the one requesting the mandate and installing himself as governor of the country.

Farouk concluded his speech by emphasizing that the initiative remains a mere "television advertisement" until accepted by the absent party and adopted by the United Nations Security Council or the United Nations Mission.

Zero fight

In turn, the researcher in security and military affairs Mahmoud Jamal said that if Haftar’s control was confined to the Libyan East only and all paths to a political solution were stalemated, Sisi could support the project of dividing Libya if he lost the hope that it would remain united under Haftar’s leadership, so that the Haftar project remained the one that controlled The eastern part, adjacent to the Egyptian border, to preserve the security of the Sisi regime, there is currently no alternative but to continue to support the Haftar project inside Libya.

"The initiative that Sisi put forward is an attempt to save Haftar, so he will not abandon him for whatever reasons, and even if other supportive countries abandon him, the battle for enabling Haftar is considered a zero battle by Sisi," Gamal added in his Twitter account.

# Al-Sisi currently has no alternative but to continue to support the project of Haftar inside Libya and the genocide put forward by Al-Sisi today as an attempt to save him. Al-Sisi will not abandon # Haftar whatever the reasons, even if other supportive countries abandon him so the battle of enabling # Haftar is considered by Al-Sisi as a battle Safaria. "# Libya (1) continued

- mahmoud gamal (@ mahmoud14gamal) June 6, 2020

In another tweet, he said, "If the Al-Wefaq government can transfer the battles to the east to impose full control, and the support provided to Haftar's forces is not sufficient to repel the Al-Wefaq forces, then it is not unlikely that the Sisi regime will interfere directly and announced by the forces in those battles, and that intervention will be justified in order to preserve Egyptian National Security. "

If the Al-Wefaq government was able to transfer the battles to the east to impose full control, and the support provided to the Haftar forces was not sufficient to repel the Al-Wefaq forces, it is not unlikely that the Sisi regime would interfere directly and announced with forces in those battles, and that intervention would be justified as a safeguard of Egyptian national security. # Libya (2) follows

- mahmoud gamal (@ mahmoud14gamal) June 6, 2020

A national initiative

As for political analyst Walaa Al-Din Bakri, he confirmed that Egypt's position was not clear since Haftar announced the "Labik Tripoli" process for what he called the liberation of Tripoli in April 2019, and that no official statement supporting this process was issued at the time.

He added in a post on his Facebook page that there was evidence indicating that he who paid for this "reckless" act is Saudi Arabia, and this act has given Turkey the right to support the internationally recognized government of reconciliation.

Bakri explained Egypt’s recent initiative in a Facebook post that it does not want Turkey to seize the Libyan “pie” on its own, and that the UAE wants Saleh's wife Aqila to replace Haftar in Libya’s future political formation.

He drew attention to the phrase “representatives of the three regions” mentioned in Al-Sisi's statement, which is evidence of Al-Sisi's desire that the neighboring regions of Egypt continue to be subject to a safe ally for him.

According to Bakri, Haftar will never become president of Libya, not even al-Sarraj, in any political solution through fair elections, but Egypt supports Haftar "in defense of its national security and has the right."

The pro-Palestinian media in Egypt was interested in promoting the Egyptian initiative, as ambassador Adib Adib, spokesman for the Haftar Forces, hosted Colonel Ahmed Al-Mismari, who said that they were awaiting an official response from the Al-Wefaq government to the Egyptian initiative, stressing that the one who hastened its rejection was the head of the Libyan State Council Khaled Al-Mashri, who - in his view - does not represent the state, but rather the "global organization of the Muslim Brotherhood" led by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a refusal equal in value with the Libyan Revolutionary Council’s response to multiple "terrorist militias", he said.

Al-Mismary appreciated the initiative by saying that it brought about two important things that were not mentioned in the Skhirat Agreement and what preceded it. The first is to cultivate the foundations of trust between the Libyan people’s rules through the government and the official council, because trust between the Libyans is the basis, in his opinion, and the second point is the succession of international and welcome Arab responses He said, stressing, "Full confidence in the Egyptian intentions in this direction."