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by Leonardo Sgura 05 June 2020 This morning Al Serraji's forces are entering Tarhouna and Al Dawoun, the last two strongholds of Haftar in Tripolitania. "The enemy is on the run", writes Colonel Muhammad Qanunu, spokesman for the Libyan army, on the social page of Operation Vulcano di Rabbia: "The entire administrative border of the city of Tripoli - he adds - is now under our control together to the cities of Ain Zara and Wadi al Rabi ".

On the opposite side, the Libyan National Army spokesman, Al Mismari, confirms that the Haftar army has left the capital, but only to honor the reopening of the peace talks, announced Tuesday by Unsmil, the UN mission in Libya.  

But the president of the National Accord Government, Fayez Al Serraji, seems to dismiss any mediation hypothesis: he praises the liberation of the capital and foresees the total defeat of the enemy, announcing that his army intends to recover the entire country. Words spoken after meeting yesterday the ally Erdogan, to whose drones, in addition to the thousands of jihadist militants moved from the Syrian front, Tripoli now owes practically everything.

In response, Khalifa Haftar flew to Cairo to seek help from his ally Egypt and denounce the "Ottoman" invasion of Libya. It is the Turks and not the Libyans, says Haftar, who fight against us. No negotiations if the invader does not withdraw.

What is certain is that the siege on Tripoli, after more than a year, has ended. A new phase opens, but difficult to decipher.

The signals coming from the two contenders seem to divert hopes of mending the confrontation started in Berlin, rekindled on Tuesday with the announcement of the green light for the reopening of the military table, one of the three (the others address economic and political-administrative issues) in charge of prepare peace agreements. Moreover, one of the main obstacles to the negotiation, so far, has been precisely the situation of force on the ground: Haftar controls much of the country, including the main oil fields, and Tripoli has always said that it is willing to negotiate only after having regained the territory "unduly" invaded by the army of Cyrenaica.

So why, a few days ago, was the go-ahead given for the reopening of the negotiations? Was it just a tactical move, taken under the strong international diplomatic pressure?

Certainly something has changed in a matter of hours, perhaps due to the pressure of allies who do not want peace at the moment and who have forced Haftar and Al Serraji to revert publicly again.

Cairo continues to reiterate that it will in no way allow the Libyan border to become a threat and condemns Turkish interference in Libya, demanding respect for the embargo against arms supplies. Egypt does not want an agreement recognizing the Turkish protectorate over Tripolitania. Position shared by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, also lined up for Ankara's exit from the conflict. While Russia, another ally of Haftar, returns to ask to stop hostilities and start a global dialogue with the participation of the most important Libyan political and social forces.

Turkey, on the other hand, has no interest in a diplomatic settlement of the crisis, because a peace agreement would force Erdogan to renounce the expansion plans on Libyan oil resources, which are still paralyzed and under the control of Haftar, and especially on the immense gas fields identified off the coast of Cyprus, in a stretch of sea that Erdogan and Al Serraji, with the agreements of last autumn, arbitrarily removed from the Greek-Cypriot sovereignty to assign it to Tripoli, in violation of international law.