Le Monde Diplomatique reviewed the scenarios of the geopolitical landscape in the world in the wake of the economic crisis that resulted from the outbreak of the Corona virus and manifested many imbalances in the cycle of production, distribution and consumption, given the complexity of relations between all international parties in the context of globalization.
There is three possible scenarios of the balance of power in the world after the great shock that he is currently living under the impact of the Corona crisis, where about four billion people live in a situation, according to an article in the newspaper’s number for the month of June, signed by Philip Golub, a professor at the American University in Paris. Quarantine.
Cooperation and Takaful The
author of the article believes that the deep and long recession that will characterize the global economy may be directed towards a first scenario that is based on more cooperation and interdependence between all parties through international organizations, by adopting effective global policies in the field of health, energy, nutrition and fighting poverty.
Intensification of competition
In light of the atmosphere of suspicion and mistrust that prevailed in the world as a result of the Corona crisis, academic Golub sees that the second possible scenario is the intensification of competition between all international parties, as the United States will seek to enhance its strength, which will restore the world to the logic of competition and the individual spirit that prevailed in the international arena In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, which is one of the moments when the global economy collapsed.
A mixture of cooperation and competition
As for the third scenario, it is expected that it will be a mixture of cooperation and competition in many areas of global politics. The writer says that this scenario is the most likely and reasonable, as the world will be close to the atmosphere that prevailed in the international arena after 1947 in the aftermath of World War II.
In his analysis of the potential geopolitical scenarios after the Corona crisis, the author questioned the possibility of the United States and China benefiting from the repercussions of this crisis, and said that this circumstance would accelerate the process of restructuring the globalized capitalist system and achieving a balance between East and West.
The writer made comparisons between China and the United States, and stressed that the current crisis has exhausted the economies of the two countries and said that their current position in the global balance of power is not better than before.
The writer explains that China's economy is more globalized than the American economy and has many strengths, among which are the great capabilities for economic intervention in many regions of the world, but it is not without weaknesses, including the increasing dependence over recent decades on external sources regarding energy and agricultural materials, which makes Food security is a major challenge for China.