Paris (AFP)

The government has further aggravated its recession forecast for France this year, with a fall in historic gross domestic product (GDP) of -11%, as the economy tries to recover slowly with deconfinement.

"I have never hidden that the hardest part is ahead of us" because "the shock of the crisis has been extremely brutal," said Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire, announcing this new forecast on radio on Tuesday. RTL. "We have a huge air hole" with this crisis.

The government will endorse this new estimate of the extent of the recession in a new draft amending budget to be presented to the Council of Ministers on June 10.

Last week, INSEE had indicated that the fall in GDP would be much greater than the -8% anticipated by the government, because the recovery in activity since the start of deconfinement will be "at best gradual in the second half".

In the first quarter, the decline in activity finally reached -5.3%, but the National Institute of Statistics anticipates a plunge of -20% in the second quarter.

The French economy "is trying (...) to catch its breath", but it "resurfaces in a world which is no longer exactly the same as before the health crisis", had judged the national institute of the statistics.

If the deconfinement started on May 11, and that the Prime Minister announced last week an acceleration with in particular the lifting of the ban on moving more than 100 kilometers from his home, the resumption of activity is slow. All businesses have not yet reopened and the restart of some businesses has been slowed by persistent disruptions in the production chains.

Small clearing: on Tuesday, restaurants and cafes can reopen in the "green" departments and only their terraces in the "orange" departments, including Paris.

It is "a very positive signal", with 300,000 establishments which will be able to reopen and half a million employees who will be able to resume their activity, stressed Mr. Le Maire, even if he considers that "to recover us economically it much more will be needed. "

- learning, tech and aeronautics -

"I have the absolute conviction that we will rebound in 2021," he said, however.

After the emergency plan of more than 100 billion euros implemented since the start of the crisis, the government is now preparing specific support plans for the most affected sectors.

Efforts of 18 billion euros for tourism, 8 billion euros for the automobile or 4.5 billion euros for communities have already been announced, before measures for aeronautics, learning , youth employment or start-ups in the coming days.

"We are taking all measures in all sectors," said Bruno Le Maire, who however already warned that bankruptcies and layoffs would be inevitable despite public support.

Several companies in the distribution sector, such as Camaïeu, La Halle or Conforama, are already in great difficulty, with thousands of jobs threatened, while the car manufacturer Renault plans to cut 15,000 jobs including 4,600 in France , the crisis having reinforced preexisting difficulties.

While some argue for an increase in working hours to accelerate the recovery in businesses, the minister said that the challenge of the economy will be mainly to fight unemployment.

"This is what is at stake for France in the coming months: work all and try to contain unemployment which will increase," he said.

© 2020 AFP