"I never hid that the hardest was before us," launched Tuesday, June 2, the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire, announcing that France had once again worsened its forecast of recession for 2020. Gross domestic product (GDP) should drop by 11%, a historic figure. 

"The shock of the crisis was extremely brutal," continued Bruno Le Maire on RTL radio. "We have a huge air hole."

The government will endorse this new estimate of the extent of the recession in a new draft amending budget, to be presented to the Council of Ministers on June 10. 

"Catch one's breath" 

Last week, INSEE had indicated that the fall in GDP would be much greater than the - 8% anticipated by the government, since the recovery in activity since the start of deconfinement would be "at best gradual in the second half". 

In the first quarter, the decline in activity finally reached 5.3%, but the National Institute of Statistics anticipates a plunge of around 20% in the second quarter. 

The French economy "is trying (...) to catch its breath", but it "resurfaces in a world which is no longer exactly the same as before the health crisis", had judged the national institute of the statistics. 

If the deconfinement started on May 11, and that the Prime Minister announced last week an acceleration with in particular the lifting of the ban on moving more than 100 kilometers from his home, the resumption of activity is slow. All businesses have not yet reopened and the restart of some businesses has been slowed by persistent disruptions in the production chains. 

“We are going to bounce back” 

Small clearing: on Tuesday, restaurants and cafes can reopen in the "green" departments and only their terraces in the "orange" departments, including Paris. 

It is "a very positive signal", with 300,000 establishments which will be able to reopen and half a million employees who will be able to resume their activity, underlined Bruno Le Maire, even if he estimates that "to recover us economically it much more will be needed. " And to continue, "I have the absolute conviction that we will rebound in 2021", he however advanced. 

After the emergency plan of more than 100 billion euros implemented since the start of the crisis, the government is now preparing specific support plans for the most affected sectors. 

Efforts of 18 billion euros for tourism, 8 billion euros for the automobile or 4.5 billion euros for communities have already been announced, before measures for aeronautics, learning , youth employment or start-ups in the coming days. 

“Work all and try to contain unemployment which will increase" 

"We are taking all measures in all sectors," said Bruno Le Maire, who however already warned that bankruptcies and layoffs would be inevitable despite public support. 

Several companies in the distribution sector, such as Camaïeu, La Halle or Conforama, are already in great difficulty, with thousands of jobs threatened, while the car manufacturer Renault plans to cut 15,000 jobs, including 4,600 in France, the crisis has reinforced preexisting difficulties. 

While some argue for an increase in working hours to accelerate the recovery in businesses, the minister, he said that the challenge of the economy will be mainly to fight unemployment. 

"This is what is at stake for France in the coming months: work all and try to contain unemployment which will increase," he said. 

With AFP

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