Share

May 29, 2020 The macroeconomic forecasts for the period due to the coronavirus pandemic were certainly not rosy, but Istat corrects the preliminary growth estimates released on April 30 last, speaking of the 'exceptional' decrease in GDP in the first quarter of 2020.

" The complete estimate of the quarterly income statements confirms the exceptional extent of the decrease in GDP in the first quarter with decreases of 5.3% in economic terms and 5.4% in trend terms never recorded since the first quarter of 1995 ", or since the start of the reconstructed time series, for which comparison is possible "

In the first quarter of 2020compared to the previous one, "all the main aggregates of domestic demand are decreasing, with a 5.1% drop in national final consumption and 8.1% in gross fixed investments," says the Institute, spreading the economic accounts quarterly. 

The national consumer price index for the whole community (nic) in May 2020 gross of tobaccos recorded a decrease of 0.1% both on a
monthly and an annual basis. It notes Istat on the basis of preliminary estimates, remembering that the trend variation was zero in the previous month.

The downward trend in the general consumer price index is mainly attributable to the dynamics of the prices of unregulated energy goods, which accentuate their drop (from -7.6% to -12.2%). "basic inflation", net of energy and fresh food, recorded an increase (price index from + 0.8% to + 0.9%) while the price index net of energy goods only went from + 1% to + 1.1%. Inflation acquired for 2020 is zero for the general index and + 0.7% for the underlying component.

The prices of food , home and personal care products slightly accelerated growth in May from + 2.5% to + 2.6% tendentially (+ 0.7% on April) while those of high frequency products d The purchase recorded a tendential change of zero (from + 0.8% in April). 

In May , inflation in Italy turned negative for the first time since October 2016 (when the drop in the general index was -0.2%). Istat underlines this in the press release which released preliminary estimates on the May consumer price index. However - reads the note from the Institute - this trend is mainly determined by the drop in fuel prices (one of the most volatile components of the basket), which pushes the drop in the prices of energy products to an extent (-12, 7%) which has not been recorded since
July 2009 (when it stood at -14.6%). net of energy, inflation rises to + 1.1% and the underlying component to + 0.9%. in this context, the prices of food, home and personal care products maintained sustained growth (+ 2.6%), accelerating by a tenth of a point compared to
April. 

Spending by households in Italy , on the territory, decreased by 7.5% in economic terms. a collapse that was particularly affected by the drop in purchases for durable goods (-17.5%), from
cars to furniture. the decrease was also strong for semi-durable goods, which include clothing, (-11.4%). The data relating to services also fell (-9.2%). the decrease for non-durable goods, a classification where food is
included, is much more contained (-0.9%). This is what emerges from Istat data on the first quarter.

Finally , imports and exports in the first quarter of 2020 fell at a cyclical level, respectively, by 6.2% and 8%.