Analysis: Despite the beginning corona debate - still wind in the back for Löfven

Since February, the Social Democrats have increased from 23.2 percent to 31.5 percent, in the SVT / Novus voter barometer. A sensational increase of just over eight percentage points in just a few months! This corresponds to 550,000 new voters, voters that the Social Democrats have taken from, above all, the Left Party and the Sweden Democrats, but also from other parties.

The rise can reasonably be interpreted as a broad support for the government's corona strategy. At the same time, confidence has increased for both government and government as well as for the prime minister personally. However, Sweden is not unique here. The international trend seems to be that opinion support is increasing for leading government parties.

However, there is now an emerging debate about Sweden's way of combating the coronas center. These are high death rates in Sweden compared to, for example, Norway, Denmark and Finland, but also that elderly housing seems to have been hit particularly hard in Sweden.

In addition, the moderates and their party leader Ulf Kristersson have on several occasions criticized the government severely for not achieving the target of 100,000 coronate tests this week.

In spite of this, the upward trend in the opinion of the Social Democrats seems to continue. The increase compared to last month is certainly within the statistical margin of error, which applies to all parties in the voter barometer, but we compare with the time just before the corona eruption is dramatic.

However persistent this increase is, no one can answer today. Should criticism of the government's actions during the crisis become fierce in the future and gain a foothold in wider electoral groups, opinion support for the Social Democrats will fall back again.

If the Social Democrats progressed during the corona crisis, the opposite has happened for the Sweden Democrats. In February, SD was Sweden's largest party with 23.9 percent in the SVT / Novus voter barometer.

During the pandemic, the party has backed by nearly six percentage points to 18.0 percent. It is obvious that the Swedish Democrats are ill-equipped for the corona crisis. When issues like immigration and crime are no longer at the top of the political agenda, the party loses voters.

Even the Moderates, with their 19.2 percent in this voter barometer, have passed the Swedish Democrats. Historically, the support of moderates is not particularly high, but the party notes its highest support since October last year.

The Corona crisis has created an opportunity for the party to re-emerge as leader of the opposition. Here, the Moderates and Ulf Kristersson have gone through a difficult balancing act between, on the one hand, marking national unity, on the other hand criticizing certain specific issues against the government's actions. This has led to the party being able to hold its positions in the public opinion despite the progress of the Social Democrats.

The Liberals, but also the Environment Party, continue to emerge as the grieving children of politics right now. Most difficult is the situation for the Liberals who have parked under the parliamentary blockade.

As yet there is no clearing in sight and this means that Nyamko Sabuni continues to be vulnerable as a party leader. The debate about the influence of lobbyists on the party's politics may also be an expression of continued fragmentation within the Liberals.

The downward trend of the Liberals has been going on for a long time. The main problem at the moment is ambiguity and that the party is in a position between the government alternatives. While the Liberals are cooperating with the Social Democrats, Nyamko Sabuni does not want to establish a long-term strategy for the party. This means that the party has a hard time winning new sympathizers while the dissatisfied ones have already left.

The situation of the environmental party is another and is rather about an inability to appear relevant to broad electoral groups. Low confidence figures continue to be a major problem for the party.

Even when the climate issue was at the top of the agenda, the party managed to lift public opinion. During the corona crisis, the Environmental Party has fallen into the shadow and has emerged as a support party to the Social Democrats.

For both the Liberals and the Environment Party, the road to the next parliamentary election can be developed into a real shudder.