"China knows it is strong enough to do what it wants with Hong Kong"

It is a small territory of 1,106 m² at the gates of China, that the Chinese Dragon would like to bring to the fore. Hong Kong's "autonomous special region" is once again at the center of the international game. The Chinese central government tabled in Parliament on May 22 a very controversial text aimed at prohibiting "treason, secession, sedition and subversion" on the peninsula, provoking a resurgence of protest movements in Hong Kong, despite the pandemic of Covid-19.

The bill was passed Thursday, May 28 by 2,878 votes - only one member voted against and six abstained - and Beijing asked for its implementation "without delay". Many Hong Kongers see it as the most serious breach of the principle "one country, two systems", which is supposed to guarantee them until 2047 freedoms unknown in the rest of China. The concern is shared by certain Western capitals, but the latter are struggling to organize a response.

A law that Beijing has wanted to see adopted for a long time

For Beijing, this law is a direct response to the massive and often violent demonstrations that have marked 2019 in Hong Kong. Demonstrations that the central government considers manipulations piloted from abroad to destabilize China.

China is not at its first attempt in terms of expanding its prerogatives over Hong Kong. In 2003, she tried to pass a similar law at the local legislative council (nicknamed Legco) before having to back down before a wave of demonstrations. But this new method, with a bill presented before the central parliament in Beijing caught everyone by surprise.

"It was a shock. It comes directly from Beijing. A bill in the National People's Congress is almost a direct directive from the Communist Party. It is a direct violation of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, the Hong Kong fundamental law and bypassing Legco. This is what scares Hong Kong activists ", explains Dorian Malovic, head of the Asia service at La Croix newspaper, and author of several books, including" Hong Kong: a Chinese destiny ", interviewed by France 24." This is a huge violation of Hong Kong's semi-autonomy and a death sentence for freedoms. "

China wants to sign the "death warrant" for Hong Kong, according to a lawyer for that city. The risk of "new violations" is extremely worrying, according to Maya Wang (HRW). https://t.co/8SsEmDavkb via @LaCroix @dorianmalovic

The timing chosen by China is far from coincidence: "They are launching this project while the rest of the world is struggling with the coronavirus and is not interested in the situation in Hong Kong. Beijing sends a signal: ' we don't care what other countries think. "China knows it is strong enough to do what it wants with Hong Kong," said the China specialist.

Aware of the stakes, pro-democracy activists have broken the rules of social distancing in force in these times of pandemic to express their dissatisfaction in the streets in recent days.

Insufficient reaction from Great Britain

Under the joint Sino-British declaration of 19 December 1984, the United Kingdom undertook to hand over its entire colony to China in 1997. In return, the People's Republic undertook to maintain the economic and and the Hong Kong way of life for fifty years. For Hong Kongers, the future Chinese law is a direct violation of this statement: "If there is one point on which many Hong Kongers are angry, it is that the British government should more firmly oppose the way in which the China is violating the terms of the joint statement, "Hong Kong Legislative Council member Claudia Mo told the BBC over the weekend.

His point of view is shared by Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, from 1992 until the handover in 1997: "The people of Hong Kong have been betrayed by China," said Chris Patten, quoted by the newspaper. The Times. Britain, he added, had a "moral, economic and legal [duty to defend Hong Kong]" duty.

Chris Patten, followed by 230 parliamentarians and policymakers from 25 countries, including former prime ministers, signed an open letter denouncing "this unilateral introduction of national security legislation by Beijing to Hong Kong". He also calls on governments to "unite to say that this blatant violation of the Sino-British joint declaration cannot be tolerated."

"Better than nothing"

"It's better than nothing but it seems a little desperate. Chris Patten did his best to get the most democratic system possible before 1997, but he failed," said Dorian Malovic.

In a joint statement, the Foreign Ministers of the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia said that the security law, "without the direct participation" of the people or institutions of the former British colony, would come " clearly undermine the principle "one country two systems" which guarantees Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy ". They recall that the joint declaration "legally binding, signed by China and the United Kingdom", provides that "the rights and freedoms, including that of the people, the press, assembly, association and others are guaranteed by law in Hong Kong. " Without however specifying what retaliatory measures could be implemented in the event of a violation.

For experts in the region, this press release demonstrates the impotence of the former British colonial power to support the pro-democracy movement:

"The United Kingdom has done very little to support Hong Kong," notes the La Croix reporter. "Britain is currently in a slump because of Brexit. In London, it is estimated to need Chinese investments, agreements with the United States, but especially not Europe. And, the inhabitants of Hong Kong is aware of this cowardice and has no illusions. "

Since the 1984 joint declaration, the United Kingdom has never been in a position of strength to negotiate democratic freedoms for Hong Kong because of its need to maintain diplomatic and economic ties with the inevitable Chinese power.

"In the Hong Kong case, there was such a power imbalance between China and the United Kingdom that we were forced to take what we could. For me, 'one wish is better than two you will have it'" says Percy Cradock, former chief negotiator for the United Kingdom and former ambassador to China.

The entry into the dance of the Americans

In the absence of British leadership on the issue, it is up to the United States to defend Hong Kong. Donald Trump said on Tuesday May 26 that he was "unhappy" with Beijing's intentions. According to him, it is "difficult to imagine how Hong Kong can remain a financial capital if China takes control".

Asked later about the possibility of sanctions against Chinese officials - as demanded by American parliamentarians -, Donald Trump assured that he was preparing "something right now" and that he would make announcements by the end -may.

About 85,000 U.S. citizens lived in Hong Kong in 2018, according to State Department figures, and more than 1,300 U.S. businesses operate there, including almost all of the major financial companies, as well as many legal and accounting departments.

In November 2019, the United States passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. With this law, the United States Department of State becomes able to judge whether Hong Kong retains a sufficient degree of autonomy to justify a special commercial status, in a context of trade war with China.

"It would be a blow to Hong Kong if the United States came to regard Hong Kong as any Chinese city and raised tariffs. But it is a double-edged sword since American companies also earn billions in Hong Kong, "says Dorian Malovic.

China sees Hong Kong as an internal problem

For its part, Beijing is firm on the subject. Chinese diplomacy spokesman Zhao Lijian on Monday (May 24th) called on Washington to reverse a decision that "interferes with China's affairs and harms its interests". Beijing says it is ready to "take all necessary measures to defend the rights and interests of Chinese companies."

During the campaign and during his presidency, Donald Trump used the Chinese question to mobilize his electorate. A strategy which Beijing is adapting to, but which Hong Kong could pay for, like Dorian Malovic.

"You have the two greatest powers in the world, with two different ideologies, but acting in the same way. Trump uses the Chinese enemy to stir up patriotic and nationalist feelings and Beijing does the same. It is so childish. would be funny if it weren't so dangerous, "said Dorian Malovic.

Summer will be hot

Beijing's intransigence also contributes to radicalizing the pro-democracy camp in Hong Kong. A spiral that serves the interests of China, which refuses to reach out to the pacifists, while the propaganda insists on the "terrorists" infiltrating the demonstrations. At the same time, the Hong Kong calendar for the coming summer is filled with symbolic dates, such as the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre on June 4 and the commemoration of the retrocession on July 1, which will not fail to spark their share of events. Add to that, local legislative elections in September and the American campaign which should accelerate: the cocktail is explosive. 

In the People's Daily, #PCC dehumanization of the enemy to allow himself to crush him like a "cockroach"! Mass brainwashing targeting @SecPompeo @iingwen @JimmyLaiApple #HongKongProtests ... #ChineseVirus #WuhanVirus #StandWithHongKong #HK #Xinjiang #Tibet pic.twitter.com/6R4yFmlRia

The Covid-19 crisis has put China even more in the spotlight. Critics of his "mask diplomacy", his lack of transparency in the management of the pandemic and his attempts to circumvent international organizations have made the headlines. The Hong Kong crisis adds a new area of ​​concern for Western democracies. 

The price of inaction, warns journalist Dorian Malovic, will be historic. "If nothing is done against China, the takeover of Hong Kong will mark a turning point in contemporary history, like the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. It would set in stone the fact that China can now do whatever she wants. "

Adapted from English by Romain Houeix. Find the original article here.

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