British study says uncontrolled "unblocking" of the US epidemic or a surge in deaths

　　China News Service, May 23, according to a report from the Financial Times, according to a report by scientists at Imperial College London, in most parts of the United States, the New Coronavirus epidemic has not been controlled. The report warns that further relaxation of epidemic prevention restrictions may cause the death toll to surge again.

On May 6, local time, New York subway staff carried out cleaning and disinfection work inside and outside the carriage.

　　According to reports, the report estimated the reproductive rate of the new coronavirus in 50 states based on the published death toll and mobile statistics calculated by Google. The study found that in about half of the states in the United States, the new corona virus reproduction rate is likely to be higher than 1. Among them, the states with the highest rate of virus reproduction are Texas, Arizona and Colorado.

　　According to reports, the reproductive rate of the new coronavirus is higher than 1, meaning that each person infected with the new coronavirus will infect more than one person, which means that the virus will spread exponentially.

　　The study also simulated what would happen to the daily mortality rate in different parts of the United States if people resume normal behavior patterns. The model shows that if the turnover of New York State in the United States returns to the previous 40%, the death toll of the new crown in New York is very likely to return to the peak of about 1,000 people per day, and may even soar to 3,000. The report warns that the same situation may also occur in Florida, where the peak of new crown deaths was about 80 per day.

　　Axel Gandy, a professor of mathematics at Imperial College of Technology, said: "This shows that the epidemic has not passed. (Although) the number has fallen and the results of the efforts are showing, but continued efforts are needed."

　　Gandy added: "If you relax too much (limit), this may be a very serious mistake. We need to keep the reproduction rate below 1, and it seems that most states (in the United States) do not have a reproduction rate much lower than 1. . "

　　According to reports, Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House New Corona Virus Special Team, addressed the US Congressmen last week and warned that if the states relax the restrictions too quickly, it will cause "pain and death."

　　However, US President Trump has slammed the warnings issued by government health experts and has been urging state governors to restart the economy as soon as possible. Today, Oklahoma has reopened the nightclub; Florida reopened the stadium.

　　At the time of the Imperial College of Technology research report, almost every state and region in the United States has begun to relax its movement restrictions, although many of these states have not yet met the standards set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). CDC Director Robert Redfield told the Financial Times this week that he expected a second wave of outbreaks in the United States in the winter of 2020.