Abdullah Salam - Baghdad
There are many questions about the future of the Islamic State, after the Iraqi Intelligence Service announced last Wednesday the arrest of one of its most important leaders and founders, Abdel Nasser Qirdash. This comes seven months after the organization's leader, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, was killed by an American airdrop in Idlib countryside (northern Syria), which raises speculation that the organization's structure was affected by the loss of most of the first-line leaders.
Qardash, who was rumored to be the potential successor to al-Baghdadi, was arrested by the SDF in March 2019, after the battles of al-Baghuz "in eastern Syria on the border with Iraq", to be received by Iraqi intelligence within the agreement of the two parties before the latter disclosed his receipt.
Qardash's arrest remains valid for many scenarios that could arise in the organization, given its extreme importance and the information it carries.
Abdel Nasser Qirdash
is known as Abu Muhammad and his name is Taha Abdul Rahim Abdullah Bakr Al Ghassani, born in 1967, from Tal Afar district, Nineveh Governorate. He joined Al Qaeda in 2007 and held several important positions.
And when ISIS announced the caliphate in June 2014, he held many positions, to finally settle down as Commander of the Commission delegated and a deputy to al-Baghdadi before his death, as well as his leadership of the battles in eastern Syria until 2019, and his contemporaneousness to the most important leaders of al Qaeda and the state and met al-Baghdadi dozens of times.
Given its classification as one of the most important evidences of the two phases of establishing Al Qaeda and the organization of the state, many of the organization's codes, represented by general methodology, fiscal policy, or internal conflicts could pave the way for new splits.
The expert on militant groups, Fadel Abu Ragheef, told Al-Jazeera Net that the group’s general policy will not be affected by the loss of its founding leaders, given that it follows the principle of “Abu Khalid Al-Suri, the owner of the largest juristic author on jihad without leadership,” and also relying on the group’s spirit, in the presence of Delegated committee.
He ruled out the impact of financial policy, given that the positions he held were not related to finance, but rather primarily industrial or legal.
Abu Ragheef does not believe that major splits occurred in the structure of the organization, suggesting that it would maintain its cohesion and the strength of its influence that would enable it to carry out any military operation.
In the context, security expert Hisham Al Hashemi says in an interview with Al Jazeera that the methodology used depends on several fronts and specific operations inside the cities that create social, political and sectarian chaos.
He explained that 43 known ISIS founders were killed between 2017 and 2019, along with 79 major leaders from the middle level, as well as hundreds of field and logistical leaders, and that today the organization has between 3,500 and four thousand active fighters and eight thousand inactive, distributed Crossed 11 regional sectors in Iraq, compared to 36 thousand fighters in 2014.
Al-Hashemi depleted that two thousand active IS fighters are concentrated in the "Triangle of Death", a rugged region located on the borders of the provinces of Diyala (east), Salah al-Din and Kirkuk (north), which has recently witnessed an increase in the frequency of attacks, along with other operations in the provinces of Anbar (west) Nineveh (north).
For his part, spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, Brigadier Yahya Rasoul, said that the arrest of Qirdash represented a strong blow to the organization, as it is one of its most important leaders and information bank.
He added that the arrest of Qirdash is extremely important on the security level, referring to the statements of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kazimi, which confirmed that the investigation with Qirdash had frustrated the organization's operations.
And about the timing of the announcement of the arrest of Qirdash, observers considered that he is now coming - although he has been in possession of the Iraqis for months - in order to absorb the anger of public opinion, after the ISIS broadcast a visual issuance of its operations in Iraq, focused on targeting individuals.