Triple consideration of China's lack of specific targets for economic growth

(Observation of the two sessions) China's triple consideration of not setting specific targets for economic growth

　　China News Service, Beijing, May 22 (Reporter Wang Enbo) In 2020, China rarely seldom raised specific targets for the annual economic growth rate.

　　But the “countless” GDP does not mean that the Chinese government has countless. This special arrangement in the government work report disclosed on the 22nd reflects the official triple consideration of economic development under the epidemic.

　　Consideration one: Flexible arrangement, leaving room for dealing with uncertainty.

　　Judging from the trend, the Chinese government has become more flexible in arranging the annual GDP growth rate at a time when it has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development compared to the past.

　　Since 2016, from setting growth expectations in a "range" way to adding flexibility to growth figures with the words "left and right", behind the fine-tuning of the targets in the government work report is the official's dilution of growth rate and development quality Emphasize.

　　From a practical point of view, in order to prevent and control the epidemic, the Chinese economy has paid a huge price, and the GDP in the first quarter showed negative growth. The current global epidemic situation and economic and trade situation are highly uncertain, and China's development also faces some unpredictable factors.

　　Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, predicts that China's economy will shift from a conventional growth model to a "long-term epidemic growth" model.

　　Facing unprecedented challenges in extraordinary times, it is proper to fully estimate the difficulties. When determining the growth target for this year, the report also needs to consider the possible direction of the epidemic and combine it with China's economic and social development needs and risk tolerance.

　　However, this special arrangement without specific targets for growth rate, on the one hand, leaves enough policy space to respond flexibly to potential risks, and on the other hand, it helps to avoid excessively high target numbers that cause macro-policy “too much force”. "Other side effects.

　　Consideration 2: Keep the bottom line and win time in order to overcome the difficulties.

　　To cope with the challenges, we must reserve space and keep the bottom line. Although the government work report does not propose specific targets for the annual economic growth rate, the bottom line for China's economic and social development is clearly visible.

　　The report clearly pointed out that in doing so, it is conducive to guiding all parties to concentrate on "six stability" and "six guarantees". "Six Guarantees" is the focus of this year's "Six Stability" work.

　　In fact, since the "Six Guarantees" was proposed by the Politburo meeting, this concept has been regarded as the bottom line of China's current economic and social development. The more uncertainty increases, the greater the significance of keeping the bottom line.

　　Dismantling the contents of the "six guarantees" is not only a matter of urgency under the epidemic, but also a difficult task facing the Chinese economy in the medium and long term.

　　If the employment pressure in China is increased due to the impact of the epidemic, ensuring the employment of residents and the first two of the "six guarantees" for the basic livelihoods of the people highlights the official concern about basic livelihoods. As the most basic unit in economic operation, the main body of the market helps prevent the epidemic from developing from a short-term to a long-term economic impact, thus laying a foundation for the people's livelihood.

　　Once these three are kept, it will bring income, boost consumption, and expand market demand, thereby stabilizing China's economic fundamentals, and creating time and conditions for tackling the difficulties.

　　Consideration three: Focus on the long-term and escort the structural reform.

　　With the improvement in economic performance in March and April, all parties have reached a consensus: the impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy is short-term and generally controllable, and the fundamentals of the long-term improvement of the Chinese economy have not changed.

　　China has always adhered to the development idea of ​​combining the present with the long-term perspective. One of its signs is that it has long been determined to use supply-side structural reforms to obtain dividends for long-term economic growth.

　　Despite the huge impact of the epidemic, China must not mess up its development. It still needs to combine solving short-term problems and resolving long-term conflicts, as well as responding to external challenges and solving internal problems.

　　From this, it is not difficult to understand why the report proposes to use reform and opening up methods to stabilize employment, protect people's livelihood, promote consumption, stimulate the market and stabilize growth, and embark on a new way to effectively deal with shocks and achieve a virtuous circle. Dilution of the specific growth rate will help to prevent all parties from carrying their "digital baggage" again when downward pressure is increasing, thus creating more room for reform.

　　In this regard, Liu Wei, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and president of the People's University of China, stated that the stability of the basic macroeconomic indicators is not supported by the speed of the fight, but by the adjustment of the structure to ensure support. "The changes in structure and the adjustment of methods are the main ways and fundamental way out for China to overcome the impact of the epidemic." (End)