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by Leonardo Sgura 21 May 2020Saudi health authorities do not hide satisfaction. "We have one of the lowest coronavirus mortality rates in the world, and the lowest percentage of critical cases among infected patients," said Health Minister Dr. Tawfiq Bin Fawzan Al-Rabiah. The numbers prove him right: Saudi Arabia out of 54,752 infected by Covid19 has so far only 312 deaths, equal to 0.56%, compared to an average world mortality of 6.7%.
Like Riyhad, the other Arab capitals of the Persian Gulf also show surprising numbers: in Quatar there are 15 deaths out of 32,604 cases (0.04%), in Oman 25 out of 5379 (0.46%), in Kuwait 112 out of 14,850 (0 , 75%). The highest mortality rate, around 1%, is that of the Emirates, with 220 deaths out of 23,358 positive swabs.
How is it possible?
Al Rabiah attributes the result to the "exemplary care provided to patients" and to the virus containment and management plans that the Saudis triggered when the most alarming news began to arrive from Italy. Social distancing, closing of schools, universities, shops, cinemas, mosques, sporting events. Stop also to pilgrimages to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina; stop to collective prayers in mosques and prohibitions of gatherings even after sunset, during ramadan.
At the same time, the Saudis, like all the Gulf countries, have deployed an impressive prevention machine, with carpet pads, home insulation, quarantine, assistance services. "We have tripled the speed of the tests and we are able to intercept the infected in advance", adds the Minister of Health, "this allows us to intervene before it is too late".
The application of the prohibitions is very hard: reports of very high fines for those who violate the curfew, spread alarmist news, or speculate on the prices of safety devices, such as masks and disinfectant gels, and on food or basic necessities.
The mental health center Irada, explains director Nawaf Al Harthi, offers remote support to the infected and to anyone who is placed in quarantine, through social workers, psychologists and psychiatrists.
In the Saudi kingdom, all information, contacts and reservations with the anti-Covid task force can be managed with the Mawid app, on which everyone can enter data relating to travel, travel and any symptoms of infection. It is not clear whether the application also performs tracking functions of risk or positive subjects.

The UAE's integrated healthcare system boasts one of the highest COVID-19 recovery rates in the world. Most Covid19 cases are asymptomatic, explained Amer Al Sharif, head of the Pandemic Command and Control Center. In the Emirates, containment plans include carpet tests, prevention measures in all public spaces and workplaces, masks and gloves distributed free of charge everywhere.
Dubai is littered with policemen equipped with thermal scans to detect body temperature. All public activities have been suspended by applying international protocols. And on the social distancing a further crackdown has been decided to prevent the celebrations of Eid al Fitr, the big party that ends the fast and that this year falls between next Saturday and Sunday, from becoming a multiplier of the infection.
Going out without a mask in Dubai can cost a fine of 750 euros. The curfew begins at 10 pm and ends at 6 am: for those who do not respect the domestic quarantine, the penalty is our € 12,500. QuantLase Imaging Lab, a medical research facility, says it is ready to carry out mass screening with tests that give results in seconds, making prevention and tracing protocols more effective.

The celebrations of Eid al Fitr also concern Quatar, another country where the pandemic has more psychological and social consequences than strictly health, given the mortality index stopped at 0.04 percent.
However, Hamad Medical Corporation has appealed to the elderly to stay safe and avoid social contacts. In collaboration with the Primary Healt Care Corporation, he launched a massive awareness campaign. Dr Hanadi Al Hamad, national senior health officer, medical director of the Rumailah hospital, explains that people over 60 are vulnerable here as in any other part of the world. The solution? Staying at home, turning to a telemedicine service set up to limit travel as much as possible: the specialist visits the patient with a video call. If he needs drug therapies, teams of nurses join him at home.

Massive prevention and assistance interventions, as can be seen, possible above all thanks to the enormous economic resources available to the Gulf countries. But that did not prevent the spread of the virus, whose contagion rate, compared to the population, was not different from that recorded in western countries: if in Italy Covid19 reached 0.29% of the inhabitants, in Saudi Arabia it hit 0.15%, in the Emirates 0.2%, in Quatar even 1.16% of residents, that is an incidence almost four times that of Italy.

So how do you explain, just to take the most striking example, the Qatari mortality rate at 0.04% of those infected?
It is to be excluded that the countries of the Persian Gulf discovered a therapy that heals from Covid19, they would have shared it. Just as, according to virologists, a role of the hot and dry climate that characterizes the area must be excluded. If this were the case, for example, the situation in Egypt could not be explained, where it is true that there are only 14 thousand official infections compared to a population of 100 million people, but the mortality rate is 5.2%, in in line with the global average.

The only possible answer, therefore, is the average age of the population. In Saudi Arabia she is about 31 years old, 38 in the Emirates, 34 in Quatar. And, again, 26 years in Oman, 30 years in Kuwait, 32 in Bahrain. They are all very young countries, in which the segment of the population most exposed to the risks of coronavirus, i.e. over 65, represents just 1% of the inhabitants, as in Quatar and the Emirates, up to a maximum of 3.3%, as in Saudi Arabia.
Italy, the second "oldest" country in the world after Japan, has an average age of 46.5 years and the over 65 are 23% of the population. Spaniards over 65 are 19.4%; the Germans 21.5%; the French 19.7% and the British 18.5%.

Ultimately, and unfortunately, strategic indications for the fight against the Virus do not arrive from the Persian Gulf countries, but the confirmation that the third age is the most fragile and the most exposed to its worst clinical complications and that, awaiting therapy and of a vaccine, the rate of expansion of Covid19 can be controlled only with severe measures of prevention, social distancing and isolation of the infection.