Analysis: "The biggest risk with the US decision is that Russia does the same"

The one who first proposed the "Open skies" treaty was Dwight Eisenhower in July 1955. At that time Soviet Union leader Nikita Khrushchev said no. Not surprisingly, because at that time the United States had significantly worse control over the Soviet than the Soviet had on the United States, and thus had more to gain from an agreement.

Instead, it would take until 2002 before observation flights could finally be implemented, an important part of the world's nuclear disarmament.

Today, the treaty feels quite outdated at least from an American perspective. Some information is still only available to Americans by flying an aircraft with sensors over Russia. But the aircraft approved in "Open skies" are old, and now the world's satellites catch most of the time. The United States can use any of its 100 military ones to take pictures of Russia, instead of seeking flight permits through the treaty.

For most of the 35 countries included in the treaty, the situation is different. The flights can provide valuable information, not least about Russia's military activity in Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast.

Therefore, the biggest risk with Trump's decision is not that the US withdraws. The biggest risk is that Russia does the same. Then a number of European countries - which have limited satellite surveillance capabilities - will have reduced opportunities to monitor Russia's nuclear weapons activity. That is why European leaders have been opposed to the US leaving the treaty.

In six months we know. If President Trump announces today, this will be the third time in his presidency that he will choose to submit a disarmament or weapons control agreement.

Two years ago, the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and last year also withdrew from the INF agreement, which banned land-based medium-range robots. Russia withdrew the following day.

Now the world's leaders are looking forward to the last major treaty that limits the two countries' nuclear weapons arenas of which the United States is still a part, the "New START" agreement.

The agreement stipulates that the US and Russia may only hold a maximum of 1550 nuclear warheads each. The agreement expires in February and Donald Trump has long said he does not want to renew it as long as China does not want to participate in the renewed agreement.

China's interest has so far been moderate, and more and more are now suggesting that the United States under President Trump will have submitted four arms control and nuclear disarmament agreements.