Recently, many European countries have taken step-by-step measures to lift the ban to restore economic production and social life. However, in the face of the rebound of the epidemic in some countries, experts have warned that the outbreak of the epidemic should be strictly prevented. On one side is the pressure of epidemic prevention and control, and on the other is the risk of economic recession. Europe is trying to find a way to prevent and control the spread of the epidemic and restore economic development.
Gradually lift the ban to boost the economy
Since entering May, many European countries have begun to lift the restrictions cautiously and gradually.
On May 13, the United Kingdom entered the first phase of lifting the ban: "actively encourage" people who cannot work from home to return to work, food processing, construction and other industries to resume work; public outdoor exercise changed from once a day to an unlimited number of times. As early as June 1st, it entered the second stage: the store gradually resumed business, and the primary school resumed classes in stages. Then, as early as July 4th, it entered the third phase: industries such as hotels and restaurants could resume work.
The French lifting measures will be implemented from May 11. French Prime Minister Philippe said that the gradual lifting of the ban will continue for at least a few weeks. In the first stage, shops and schools reopened. According to estimates by the French Ministry of Economy and Finance, about 400,000 companies and shops resumed work on the 11th.
As the first outbreak country in Europe, Italy began to gradually unblock it on May 4. According to a report on the "Business Insider" news website in the United States, on May 4th, about 4.5 million people in Italy returned to work, mostly in the manufacturing industry.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel reached an agreement with the governors of 16 federal states on May 6, and gradually lifted the seal from that day. All federal state governments have reached a consensus: Once the infection rate in any county or city rises to 50 new cases of infection per 100,000 people, the region will re-implement restrictions.
At the same time, European countries have also introduced new measures to deal with the economic impact of the epidemic.
The European Commission issued a guidance plan for the gradual recovery of summer travel on May 13 in order to save the tourism industry. Italy ’s economic stimulus plan includes: providing subsidies and tax relief for small and medium-sized enterprises; providing 25.6 billion euros in subsidies to employees and self-employed people whose income is affected by the epidemic; providing various subsidies such as childcare funds to families; increasing medical system investment; The heavily damaged tourism sector implemented stimulus measures, etc. French Finance Minister Le Merle announced that the small and medium-sized enterprises in the wine industry are exempted from social security contributions and established a support plan of 140 million euros. The Austrian government and the Federal Chamber of Commerce have agreed on a 500 million euros catering industry assistance plan, which aims to support the gradual recovery of the catering industry through means such as tax reductions and consumption stimulation. The Cyprus government has approved a 6 billion euro stimulus plan aimed at revitalizing the economy, an amount equivalent to nearly 1/3 of the country ’s GDP in the previous year before the outbreak.
Long-term lockout suffered heavy losses
"At present, the epidemic situation in various countries has stabilized. Many people in Europe believe that as long as they pass the high point of the epidemic, they can begin to gradually lift the restrictions. For example, in Germany, medical experts and government officials believe that the annual number of deaths due to influenza is 25,000 So far, society has not shut down or forced vaccinations. This is understood as the potential price paid for the pursuit of personal freedom and economic welfare. "Wang Hongyu, a researcher at the National (Beijing) Opening Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, pointed out that In the electoral system, the governments of European countries cannot keep the people at home for a long time. In addition, Germany and other countries have strong medical systems and good results in epidemic management and control. The gradual lifting of the ban is also confident. "
According to the timeline for the development of the new crown epidemic released by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the European new crown pneumonia epidemic has increased sharply since the outbreak in late February and reached a peak in early April, and then slowly slowed down in the ups and downs. In the latest assessment report released by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention on April 23, the risk level of severe new coronary pneumonia outbreaks in European countries was lowered from the previous "higher" to "low", but the premise is to continue to ensure appropriate social distance .
The epidemic severely impacted the European economy, and the huge recession pressure is undoubtedly the driving force for lifting the ban. On May 14, local time, the European Central Bank, headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany, released the latest economic report that, affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, in the first quarter of this year, the euro zone's GDP fell 3.8% month-on-month, the largest decline since 1995. Judging from the sharp decline in economic activity in April, the impact of the eurozone economy on the epidemic in the second quarter will only be more pronounced. In addition, official data released on the 13th showed that in the first quarter of this year, UK GDP fell by 2.0% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. This is the largest quarterly decline since the international financial crisis at the end of 2008. According to the forecast of the Bank of England, the epidemic will cause the United Kingdom to face the worst economic recession since 1708. In the first half of the year, economic output will shrink by nearly 30%, and the annual negative growth will be 14%.
"A long social shutdown will have a huge negative impact on the economy and people's livelihood." Wang Hongyu said, "German experts estimate that Germany's weekly economic loss caused by the social shutdown is as high as 50 billion euros. The United Kingdom is to rescue business organizations affected by the epidemic , Recently decided to extend the bailout plan until the end of October. Southern European countries have always relied on tourism and more urgently need to restart the economy. In the final analysis, in the case of unsustainable national finances, it is still necessary to strive to restore reasonable taxes as soon as possible to promote sustainable financial operation . "
Strictly prevent rebound and move forward cautiously
The analysis pointed out that the current measures to lift the ban in Europe are still a bottleneck for driving economic recovery. With the epidemic situation not completely eliminated, economic development still faces many uncertainties.
"Under the principle of maintaining social distance, all European countries are facing the problem of service object reduction, and the European countries' economy is highly dependent on the developed service industry. At present, although European countries have gradually reopened their borders, they are only aimed at countries within the European Union. The possibility of entry by citizens of external countries is very small. It is still far away from the real economic restart. ”Wang Hongyu also has concerns about the UK ’s restart plan.“ The UK ’s economic restart plan pursues 'big' and 'full', covering almost all In the industry affected by the epidemic, the goal is to spare no effort to ensure the smooth operation of the economic system. However, I do not think that the restart plan will have much effect. The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was strongly resisted by the opposition when the parliament proposed the restart plan. At present, The UK ’s restart plan is still in its infancy, and there is still some way to go before it is actually implemented. "
Moreover, even if the ban is lifted, it will be difficult to recover the supply chain and the job market that have been severely hit in the short term. A survey of 1,300 French entrepreneurs by the Xerfi Institute for Economic Research in France recently showed that entrepreneurs are generally pessimistic about economic recovery due to problems such as insufficient demand, labor shortage and future cash flow. One-fifth of entrepreneurs predict that the French economy will have difficulty recovering before September this year.
The biggest uncertainty lies in the epidemic. Ryan, the executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, pointed out on May 11 that countries should not blindly lift the blockade without closely tracking person-to-person contact. Andrea Amon, head of the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention, also said that the current danger comes from the current unblocking measures. She said that the probability of people gathering is increased. If there is not enough virus testing, the confirmed cases are not tracked, and the social distance and hand washing are ignored, then the next wave of outbreaks should not be far away.
In fact, the European epidemic has begun to show signs of rebound. Since May, there have been cluster infections in many places in France. In addition, according to the German "Daily Mirror" report, the Robert Koch Institute said on the 12th that the number of basic infections in the German new crown epidemic has rebounded to 1.13 in the past weekend, which means that the epidemic has been higher than the "red line". German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on the same day that the German epidemic was in a "new stage" and warned the public again that they must abide by the "communicative ban" and wear masks when going out.
As the epidemic resistance enters a new stage, European countries are carefully seeking a balance between controlling the epidemic and resuming production. French Finance Minister Lemer pointed out: "We are entering a new world. In this world, we must learn to combine economic activities, work and virus control." British Prime Minister Johnson said that the challenge now is to find a way forward The road can not only maintain the hard-earned anti-epidemic results, but also reduce the burden of blockade measures, "it is very difficult to achieve a balance."