Paris (AFP)

For the government, the building now embodies a much-desired economic recovery after two months of paralysis. But the future of the sector remains uncertain: whether it is redoing the kitchen or launching major public works, customers risk being shy.

Construction "is an absolutely vital sector for the French economy," said Bruno Le Maire on the first day of deconfinement, May 11. "It can be the symbol of the French economic recovery."

It was the first trip of the Minister of Economy after two months of strict confinement to fight against the spread of the coronavirus, and his choice was emblematic: a site, near Paris.

Why the building rather than the automobile, heavily hit by the crisis and in search of subsidies, or the businesses, largely forced to close during confinement?

First, there is the concrete symbol of the resumption of construction sites, the vast majority of which have been interrupted since mid-March. Activity had restarted on 72% of them on Sunday, and the government wants them all to resume at the end of May, even if the sector hardly believes in it.

The recovery of the building is a crucial driver. Its activity represents more than 5% of the French economy. And beyond that, the health of the sector guarantees an adequate supply of housing, essential for the proper functioning of the entire economy.

Its restart is not obvious since it depends on the attitude of its three main categories of customers: individuals, public actors - State and local communities - and private groups, including developers who build housing.

The latter are still trying to understand the immediate future of the market. Since the start of the crisis, there have been no more monthly building permit figures. The halt is expected to be brutal, although the government has taken steps to ensure a rapid resumption of their examination after confinement.

The promoters, who already mentioned a fall in permits before the crisis, fear in particular that blockages persist with the uncertainties around the municipal, interrupted between the two towers by containment.

- Customers "have lost everything" -

At least "the demand for housing, driven by demography and the deficit in structural supply, does not disappear: it is transferred", underlined at the beginning of May Alain Dinin, CEO of Nexity, first French developer.

"I do not believe in a return to normal before the end of the year," he warned, however, in the latest edition of the Journal du Dimanche. "For property development, the year 2020 will be down significantly, by at least 100,000 homes."

And difficult to be optimistic for the other major categories of building customers. Individuals, in particular, will they still want to redo their kitchen, after, for some, months of partial unemployment or even total inactivity?

"Customers are worried about the future: some have saved money, but others have lost everything," reports AFP Patrick Liébus, president of Capeb, the organization which dominates the building craftsmen, particularly affected by the subject.

"We still have a lot of customers who are in commerce, hotels and restaurants," he adds. "They are not necessarily in a condition to give us quotes."

At another level, concerns are similar in the public works sector. In what state will local authorities come out of the crisis and will they be able to start work?

According to FNTP, the main organization of public works companies, the crisis could cost local authorities up to nine billion euros, in particular because the stoppage of the real estate market has deprived them of the local taxes they levy on these transactions. .

The federation already reports an "air gap" in the tenders and believes that many companies in the sector may not survive it even before the end of the year.

"Without waiting for the stimulus plans that will be discussed once the health crisis has passed, we should immediately support the local public order which is threatening to collapse," she pressed in late April in a statement.

© 2020 AFP