After rejecting the annexation decision, will Amman stop its security coordination with Tel Aviv?

Hassan Al-Shobaki - Amman

It appears that Jordan is alone in a battle that no one wants to fight, as observers say, and the liquidation of the Palestinian issue sneaks quietly and without hustle - Israeli and American planning and execution - at a time when the Corona pandemic is gaining everyone's attention, so how can Jordan fight this confrontation?

The Israeli right does not take into account any weight for the kingdom, which extends its long western borders with occupied Palestine, and the "American ally" runs back completely to Jordanian interests, and continues to pressurize, and the most difficult of them are Arab parties that gave Netanyahu free of charge whatever he wanted and more.

The King of Jordan, Abdullah II, chose the memory of the catastrophe to raise his voice, his concern, and his anger over a prospective decision for Israel to implement the annexation of settlements in the West Bank, the Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea. What can be saved, to discourage the Americans and Israelis from the annexation decision after a month and a half. 

Meanwhile, the king's words about "a great clash with Jordan in the event that Israel implements its plans" have opened doors for expectations and analyzes. What can Jordan do to respond to this annexation that gives the Israeli occupation fertile lands that constitute 30% of the West Bank? It prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state with borders from Jordan, and paves the way for a smooth displacement from the West Bank to Jordan, according to the concerns of Jordanian politicians.

At the table of the king in this open concern is the peace treaty between Amman and Tel Aviv signed 26 years ago, and the agreement to import gas from Israel, which began flowing early this difficult year, in addition to security and intelligence coordination with the occupying country.

Pressure papers The
former Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister, Dr. Muhammad Halayqa, expects to withdraw the Jordanian ambassador and reduce relations between the two sides, as well as freeze security and military coordination with Israel, and this is "very important" in the opinion of Halayqa, but he stressed that the gas agreement is "not on the table" as a pressure card, referring to its penal terms .

Such a move - stopping security coordination - would create a division within Israel if Jordan did, and would be costly to the Israeli government in estimating Professor of International Relations at the University of Jordan, Dr. Hassan al-Barari.

As for talking about a European role and about trying to influence the Israeli interior through some of the left’s forces and what has been published daily since the king’s statements in “Haaretz”, Al-Barari revealed that there is a “Zionist consensus on annexation”, and that the right is prevailing in the scene in Israel supported by an American support, indicating that Europe is mired in the Corona pandemic swamp and does not have a single foreign policy, in addition to its role complementary - according to the prairies - the role of the United States with regard to the conflict in the region and the paths of peace. 

It is reported in the political salons in the Jordanian capital that Jordan has lost its power and influence in the American ally, and the Kingdom no longer has the ability to influence the American position, while America provides assistance to Jordan in more than a billion and a half billion dollars annually.

It is also rumored that Washington before Tel Aviv does not want a Palestinian state, which makes the Jordanian position complicated by an ally who no longer cares about Jordan's higher interests, and next to an occupying power that wants to liquidate the Palestinian issue at the expense of Jordan, while Israeli media publish - from time to time - a skepticism. With the Jordanian position, "and that Jordan will eventually adapt to all these arrangements."

Risks to come It
is noteworthy that the former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Moasher revealed earlier this year - quoting Jordanian officials - that Amman cannot do anything about the American pressure and that there is no way to resist these pressures.

Al-Muasher’s talk about these pressures came in the context of showing the size of the coming risks that Israel plans and has American support, foremost of which is that Israel does not want a Palestinian majority, as the number of Palestinians reaches 6.6 million, while the number of Israelis does not exceed 6.5 million Israeli Jews, and that there is no solution - From Israel's point of view - except by displacing Palestinians to Jordan. 

Al-Barari believes that Jordan today does not possess the necessary strength to confront Israel as it should, and that the Kingdom suffers from a "major strategic exposure" caused by the Arab world, especially what Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Egypt are doing to negate the Palestinian cause, and in return Al-Halaiqa goes beyond that, where Netanyahu is taking advantage of an Arab trot toward him, making him "not give weight to Jordanian-Israeli relations," according to Halayqa.

"The king's statements carried several messages in a firm tone and a high ceiling," Halayqa says, including letters to his Arab surroundings, which became a hindrance after "some Arabs jumped on the Jordanian and Palestinian roles through security relations with the Israeli occupation and a rush that opened Netanyahu's appetite" to proceed with what he planned and He does not back down on these plans, and gave him rewards without offering anything to the Palestinians.