Dangerous castling: why in the USA they announced the possible relocation of the nuclear arsenal from Germany to Poland

The possible redeployment of US nuclear weapons from Germany to Poland will adversely affect security in Europe. So experts commented on the recent statements by the US ambassador to Warsaw, Georgette Mosbacher, who proposed placing American nuclear weapons in Poland in the event Germany refuses to be present in the country.

The diplomat wrote about this on her Twitter on May 15, publishing relevant posts in English and Polish.

If Germany wants to diminish nuclear capability and weaken NATO, perhaps Poland - which pays its fair share, understands the risks, and is on NATO's eastern flank - could house the capabilities here: https://t.co/VIzpHIgoUN

“If Germany wants to reduce its nuclear potential and weaken NATO, then perhaps Poland, which pays all its contributions, is aware of the risks and is on NATO’s eastern flank, could host weapons,” the diplomat wrote. 

Mosbacher confirmed her position on the possible deployment of US strategic nuclear weapons in Poland on May 16 in an interview with Fakt. In her communication with reporters, she emphasized that the “Russian nuclear arsenal” is the main threat to Europe.

In response to Mosbacher’s remarks, Russian Senator Alexei Pushkov suggested that American and Polish politicians recall the history of the 1962 Caribbean crisis. Then the deployment of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba led to one of the most dangerous aggravation of relations between the USA and the USSR during the years of the Cold War.

“Most likely, they don’t know about him or forgot about him. Placing such weapons in Poland is the right way to bring things to the same crisis, ”said Pushkov.  

Those in Washington and Warsaw who dream of deploying US nuclear weapons in Poland should familiarize themselves with the history of the 1962 Caribbean crisis. Most likely, they don’t know about it at all or have forgotten. Placing such weapons in Poland is the right way to bring matters to the same crisis.

Confrontation in the Bundestag

With such statements, Mosbacher made against the background of the ongoing political discussion in Germany about the deployment of US nuclear weapons in the country. The need to withdraw him from the territory of Germany was announced, in particular, by representatives of the Social Democratic Party (SPD). At the same time, their partners in the ruling coalition from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are categorically opposed.

U.S. nuclear weapons have been present in Germany since the 1950s. Now in Germany posted up to 20 tactical nuclear bombs B61. During the Cold War, the size of the US nuclear arsenal as a whole in Europe reached 5-7.5 thousand charges and warheads.

• American atomic bomb B-61
• © US Air Force

Georgette Mosbacher, in a statement on the possible redeployment of nuclear weapons to Poland, referred to the article "The need for reliable nuclear deterrence remains" authored by colleague Richard Grenell, US ambassador to Germany, published on the website of the US diplomatic mission in Germany. In it, the diplomat condemns the confrontation of German politicians, considering it to undermine the solidarity that underlies NATO’s nuclear deterrence.

“Today, Germany is at the center of a united Europe, but threats to peace on the continent are not something that is a thing of the past, as some may believe. A Russian invasion of Ukraine, an increase in the number of Russian missiles capable of carrying a nuclear charge on the borders of the European Union, the emergence of new weapons from China, North Korea and other countries - all this clearly indicates the real existence of the threat, ”says Grenell. 

He said that the German side should continue to fulfill its obligations to the Allies in the North Atlantic Alliance.  

“Instead of weakening the unity that underlies NATO’s nuclear deterrence potential, Germany should now fulfill its obligations to the Allies while continuing to pay contributions to the NATO nuclear program,” the article says the American ambassador to Germany. 

At the same time, Grenell’s material does not consider the possibility of relocating the US nuclear arsenal to any countries that may become its new custodians. 

According to an expert from the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Sergey Ermakov, serious debates have been going on in Germany for a long time.  

“Formally, air bombs are not strategic nuclear weapons, so they are not taken into account in the START treaty. However, due to its proximity to the Russian borders and the development of military aviation, this weapon has strategic importance, which is the reason for the debate in Germany now, ”the political scientist explained. 

The confrontation in the German parliament is due to the fact that the political landscape in Europe is fundamentally changing against the background of the dismantling of the strategic arms control system, Yermakov added.

“Some politicians in Germany understand that the country, retaining American nuclear bombs, becomes a hostage to this situation, puts itself at risk,” he explained.  

In turn, political analyst Alexander Asafov believes that the United States is not advisable to move nuclear weapons from Germany to Poland. 

“Rather, they will place missiles there that violate the canceled INF Treaty, because they need to implement the Pentagon’s budget. Do not forget that the deployment of American bases throughout Europe is an additional instrument of control over the European political landscape, as well as creating tension with Russia, ”the expert noted.  

Polish aspirations 

Earlier, Poland made statements that the issue of deploying American nuclear missiles in the country was open for discussion.

So, in August 2019, the head of the Polish government Mateusz Moravecki announced this, answering a question from the correspondent of the German newspaper Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung about the possible emergence of American nuclear weapons in Europe after the denunciation of the Treaty on the deployment of medium and short-range missiles.

• US and Polish military at NATO joint exercises
• © Cezary Aszkielowicz / Agencja Gazeta via REUTERS

“The issue of deploying medium-range missiles with nuclear warheads in Europe should be discussed and resolved within NATO,” Moravecki said. Thus, the Polish prime minister did not virtually exclude the possibility of the appearance in Europe of missiles previously banned by the INF Treaty.

It is worth noting that the deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland will be a gross violation of the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act.

At the same time, experts believe that such a scenario is quite possible, given that Poland is the main conductor of American interests in Europe and is consistently strengthening the US military presence on its territory.

Sergei Ermakov recalled that the Polish leadership in recent years has sought to improve the status of its country and prove that Poland is a reliable supporter of the United States.  

“Warsaw is trying to enlist the special support of Washington, striving to become its serious support in Europe,” the expert noted.  

However, Poland’s deployment of American nuclear weapons on its territory will fundamentally affect security in Europe, Yermakov added. 

“Undoubtedly, this will strengthen the military confrontational potential. This will be comparable to the deployment of medium- and shorter-range missiles on European territory and will mean a serious military threat. Russia rightfully believes that the presence of American nuclear bombs in Europe is a violation of the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, respectively, their further movement into the territory of new countries entails extremely serious political and military risks for both these countries and the United States, ” summed up the expert.