Trade in Corona's time ... Trump tempts Britain, Johnson angered Europeans

Ayoub Al-Rimi - London

The Corona epidemic imposed its agenda on negotiations between Britain and the European Union, in order to reach a trade agreement that would protect both parties from the exit scenario without a deal at the end of this year.

Although the UK has become the second country in the world in terms of deaths due to the epidemic, this has not prevented it from opening - within one week and simultaneously - trade negotiations with the European Union, and with the United States on the other hand.

The faltering track of negotiations between the Union and the Boris Johnson government continues, by exchanging accusations between the two parties to obstructing the talks and imposing impossible conditions, as well as London's insistence on preserving the option of leaving without an agreement on the table, a new round of which ends at the end of the week. 

As the differences between Britain and the European Union widen, things are going well in trade talks between London and Washington to reach a free exchange agreement, which was shown by the statements that preceded the start of virtual meetings between the British Minister of Foreign Trade and her American counterpart this week, all of which are statements that The tendency to remove all obstacles to reaching this "historic" agreement, as the US President likes to call him.

Disappointment
Michel Barnier, the European negotiator for the Brexit dossier, anticipated the new round of negotiations with the United Kingdom, held for a week, to express his disappointment at the slow progress of the talks between the two parties, stressing that progress to reach a trade agreement is still limited, blaming the British side that the latter does not deal with Negotiations with the required seriousness. 

The differences between the two parties are concentrated in a number of files, the first of which is marine fishing, as the Europeans require a full permit for their ships to fish on the British coasts, while London says it wants to restore its sovereignty over its territorial waters, in addition to the dispute over the quality and safety standards for agricultural materials and food, security cooperation and coordination Intelligence. 

Each of the parties to these negotiations stems from a different philosophy. Britain wants to obtain access to the European common market and only at a time willing to stay away from the Europeans in all matters relating to trade laws, food standards, laws regulating the financial field and economic competition. 

As for the Europeans, they insist that the trade agreement is comprehensive "either to be taken whole or left in it" and this means that Britain must agree to adhere to European standards in agriculture and food and allow European ships to fish freely in British waters, and that every trade dispute is referred To the European Union’s Court of Justice for adjudication.

This is what the British see as an injustice against them, considering that the European Union did not impose the same conditions on other countries with which the trade agreement was concluded.

Although all opinion polls indicate that British merchants do not want their country to go to the exit scenario without an agreement, the Johnson government is determined not to extend negotiations beyond December 31. 

The European Union remains the largest trading partner of the United Kingdom, with exchanges between the two parties amounting to $ 721 billion. In the event that no agreement is reached, the University of London's Center for Economic Performance is expected to decline in the per capita GDP by 3.5 to 8.7%, over the next ten years. 

And there remained few opportunities for the parties to start negotiations this month, and end by July, in which the two sides are supposed to have reached a draft trade agreement to be discussed in Parliament, and amendment before approval at the end of the year.

Trump and the elections
on the other hand, the Corona epidemic canceled an extraordinary summit that was to be held between US President Donald Trump and the British Prime Minister, during which the outlines of the free trade agreement between the two sides would have been announced, but this did not prevent Washington and London from continuing negotiations and that From a distance, between the two countries' trade ministers.

In contrast to the British hardline with the European Union, the Johnson government shows a lot of softness in dealing with the American administration, and this is not evidenced by the statement of Foreign Minister Dominique Rapp who stressed that his country will reconsider all its relations with China after the end of the Corona pandemic crisis, which is what Many saw him as a response to US pressure to demand greater British firmness with Beijing. 

Trump is luring his ally Johnson with a trade deal, the largest in history, that will raise four times the volume of exchanges between the two countries, which currently stands at $ 262 billion, which is almost equivalent to the volume of trade exchange with the European Union, but many experts expect this number to double to reach at best to 500 Billion dollar. 

And Britain paved - for the beginning of its negotiations with the United States - a lot of legal amendments, including non-compliance with European standards in the field of food, so as not to be a barrier to American products. 

A research paper from Harvard University - published in the Financial Times - expects that the electoral race in the United States will accelerate the process of trade negotiation with London, so Trump wants to enter the campaign while he holds in his hands a "mini trade agreement" with Britain, which is a declaration of principles without agreement on all the details.

The same report considers it difficult - if not impossible - to reach a free exchange agreement, before the US elections, because of the complexities and details that require a lot of time. 

Perhaps what worries London is the ceiling of the American ambition wishing to completely storm the British market, including investment in the health sector, which has become excluded with the Corona pandemic, and the return of the state’s interest in this sector, in addition to the American insistence on excluding major technological companies (Facebook, Amazon, Google) from the tax.