"Herd immunity" feeds the Corona virus until it dies from satiety ... Is it better to starve it?

Dr.. Osama Abu Al-Rub

With the outbreak of the new Corona virus causing the "Covid 19" disease in the world, Sweden implemented a different policy from the rest of the countries in dealing with the epidemic, as it did not impose quarantine, and applied flexible measures to reach "herd immunity", so did this experiment succeed? Can it be applied in Arab countries?

The “herd immunity” strategy is based on the idea that when as many people as possible catch a disease like corona, most of them will recover - despite potentially significant deaths - and then they will have immunity to the virus, which will ultimately help curtail the disease.

Perhaps the closest analogy to the "herd immunity" strategy is to allow the virus to "feed" on the largest number of people, which creates immunity against it in society, and the result is that it retracts and is defeated after it becomes "satiated."

As for the quarantine and isolation strategy, it undertakes in return for the principle of starvation, according to a member of the Egyptian Society for Allergy and Immunology in Cairo, Professor Magdy Badran - in previous statements to the German Media Authority "Deutsche Welle" - when people infected with the virus remain away from others and cannot pass it on to anyone Else, this will "starve the new coronavirus," meaning to deny the virus access to individual cells, and in this way the number of people who contract the disease decreases at the same time and the virus does not find whoever enters it and dies.

Deaths
In return, and until the herd immunity spreads, the virus will have infected millions and killed thousands, which has exposed this strategy to criticism from health experts. Earlier, the "Guardian" quoted a senior official in the British National Health Service that with an infection rate of 80%, the death rate will reach more than half a million people (in Britain).

Let's start with Sweden, which was an exception in the West’s dealings with the Corona crisis, as instead of imposing a quarantine or declaring a state of emergency, I relied a lot on the population’s understanding of adopting a policy of social divergence, according to an article published by the American magazine “Foreign Affairs” by writers Niels Carlson and Charlotta Stern. And Daniel B. Clay.

To date, the number of coronavirus infections in Sweden has exceeded 28,000, and 3,500 deaths, according to WorldMeter.

The Swedish authorities have imposed flexible restrictions to flatten the curve, such as preventing gatherings of more than 50 people, and distance education in secondary schools and universities. The Swedes have responded to these flexible measures and changed their behavior.

The article indicated that the Swedish authorities have not formally announced that their goal is to reach the herd immunity, although most scientists believe that this may happen when more than 60% of the population is infected with the virus, but increased immunity is undoubtedly part of the broader strategy of the government, or at least Possible outcome of keeping schools, restaurants and most companies open.

The chief virologist at the Swedish Public Health Agency Anders Tijnell predicted that Stockholm would be able to reach "herd immunity" early this month. According to the updated behavioral assumptions daily, according to Stockholm mathematician Tom Bretton, achieving 40% of the herd's immunity in the capital may be sufficient to stop the spread of the virus by mid-June.

According to the article, Sweden's policy has received approval from some quarters for maintaining a near-normal economic situation and a lower death rate compared to many European countries such as Italy, Spain and Britain. But she also criticized her from other circles, given that her death rate exceeded the rest of the northern countries, not to mention the lack of protection for the elderly and immigrant populations.

However, the Swedish authorities have said that the country's high death rate will decrease over time, and when most of the world faces a deadly second wave, Sweden will have left the worst behind.

According to the article, Sweden's response to the virus was not ideal, but it succeeded in strengthening the immunity of young people and healthy people, that is, those who are less at risk of complications from the Corona virus, while maintaining the flatness of the curve. The situation also did not spin out of control in the intensive care units in the country, and the medical staff was not overburdened.

The dark side
But in Sweden as well, the homes of the elderly were hardest hit by the Coruna epidemic, which prompted the country to acknowledge that it had failed to protect its elderly.

"We have failed to protect the elderly ... It is a failure of the entire community ... We must learn from it, we have not yet finished with this epidemic," Swedish Health Minister Lina Hallingeren said in a statement to state television.

When Sweden crossed the threshold of 3,000 deaths with the emerging coronavirus, nearly half had occurred in homes for the elderly.

And local media have talked in recent weeks about working conditions in nursing homes that suffer from a lack of protection means, to the point that some preferred not to work, and some homes suffered from a shortage of employees.

Testimonies showed that some of the elderly became infected while entering the hospital to receive other treatments, and then returned to the home where they transferred the virus without their knowledge.

And in an opinion essay by Carl T. Bergstrom and Natalie Dean published in "The New York Times", Sweden has already seen many more deaths than its neighbors. 

The authors said that reaching the herd's immunity without a vaccine would kill millions. Even after achieving access, this does not mean that the virus has stopped, as the number of infections will continue to rise.

Arab countries
and about the herd's immunity and its applicability in the Arab world, Dr. Alia Abu Kiwan, a researcher at Heidelberg Hospital in Germany, said in previous statements to the "Deutsche Welle" organization, that applying this methodology is a great risk, especially with the elderly and people with weak immunity, and therefore many Some countries stand against the implementation of this strategy because they do not want to sacrifice these critical groups.

Dr. Alia added that this matter will result in a huge number of injuries, which may put pressure on the health sector, noting that Germany, despite all its enormous potential, preferred to disable the economy for a whole month, because it does not want to risk the health or lives of the elderly or the weak, but on the contrary I decided to do more to protect and treat them.

In turn, Professor Badran believes that the idea of ​​herd immunity will not be beneficial at present, and he added, "I do not accept that we sacrifice the death of a million in order for 100 million to live .. But perhaps this strategy will be useful in the future if the virus mutates and becomes seasonal or endemic, then its hour will gain the immunity against it, It becomes a simple disease. "

We need a vaccine,
so experts believe that, according to current data, herd immunity cannot be reached without developing a vaccine, which was confirmed by a recent French study.

The study was conducted by the Pasteur Institute, and found that only 4.4% of the French population - that is, 2.8 million people - were infected with Corona virus, which is much more than the official count of cases, but it is much less than the number needed to achieve herd immunity.

The Pasteur Institute monitored the infection rate starting May 11, the day that France began easing its nearly two-month general isolation measures.

The researchers said - in the study published last Wednesday in the journal "Science" - that "approximately 65% ​​of the population should be immune if we want to control the pandemic by the means of immunity alone."

"As a result, our results show that without a vaccine, the herd immunity alone will not be sufficient to avoid a second wave at the end of the general isolation, so effective control measures should be applied after May 11," the researchers say.

The Pasteur Institute said that the general isolation that France began on March 17 led to a sharp decline in the rate of reproduction of the Coronavirus, as it decreased from 2.9 to 0.67 during the 55-day closure there. 

Spain also, and
a Spanish study published on Wednesday concluded similar results, and said that about 5% of the population became ill and there is no herd immunity in Spain, which in turn began to gradually reduce measures of general isolation. The study was published by the Spanish government.

"The study found that 5% of Spaniards were infected with the virus, just over two million people," said Health Minister Salvador Ella. Some studies have shown that some of the affected people will not have any symptoms, but they can still transmit the disease.

Therefore, the available data currently do not encourage the implementation of the herd immunity strategy, and it seems that its price will be high in terms of deaths, especially among the elderly, as happened in Sweden. There are also doubts that the herd immunity could be reached originally without developing a vaccine for SK.