In the fifth month of the "war" against the epidemic of New Coronary Pneumonia, the cumulative number of cases of New Coronary Pneumonia diagnosed worldwide has exceeded 4 million, and more than 280,000 people have been killed by the virus. The depth and breadth of the epidemic's impact have far surpassed several previous global crises. Behind the increasing number of cases, the public health prevention and control system in many countries is showing signs of fatigue, the rising unemployment rate and the imminent social chaos.
Although WHO has repeatedly called on countries to be alert to the rebound of the epidemic caused by premature “unblocking”, many countries have decided or begun to relax control measures in stages and regions to restore economic production and social life when the epidemic is not fully controlled. This inevitably increases the uncertainty of the "second outbreak" of the epidemic. From large American prisons to British nursing homes, from German meat processing companies to Singapore ’s foreign labor dormitory, from night clubs in Itaewon, Seoul, South Korea, to the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in Toulon, France. The aura of some "anti-epidemic model" countries has faded, and the issue of long-term and normalized anti-epidemic issues has been placed before all countries.
Aggregated epidemic situation has caused many countries to "stop" the emergency brakes
The haze of the rebound of the epidemic has shrouded over many countries where positive signs of anti-epidemic have emerged and cautious relaxation of prevention and control restrictions has begun. Under difficult trade-offs, these countries may press the "unblock" pause button in a targeted manner.
South Korea is one of the earliest outbreaks of the new crown epidemic. Since the number of newly diagnosed cases in a single day is less than 20 consecutive days, it has been transferred to the "life epidemic prevention stage" of normal life and epidemic prevention from May 6. But on May 6th, a 29-year-old man living in Yongin, Gyeonggi-do, was diagnosed with an infection, breaking the stable situation. From the 10th to the 11th for two consecutive days, there were more than 30 newly diagnosed cases in South Korea. The man had traveled between 3 nightclubs and 2 bars in Itaewon, Seoul from late 1st to early 2nd without wearing a mask. According to a report from the South Korean Central Epidemic Prevention Headquarters on the 12th, as of 12:00 local time on the 12th, the number of confirmed cases associated with the nightclub in Itaewon, Seoul, has risen to 102.
At present, South Korea has issued a one-month administrative order to shut down entertainment venues across the country, requiring people to wear masks on the subway during peak hours and postpone the offline resumption of classes at all levels for a week. Prime Minister Ding Shijun emphasized: "Hesitating for a day, maybe our clock will stop for a month."
Germany has become the earliest country to be unblocked in Europe ’s “heavy-hit country” based on sufficient testing capabilities and adequate medical resources. As early as April 20, it took the first step of unblocking. Small shops and bicycle stores , Bookstores, and car dealerships have reopened. To be cautious, the federal government also reached an emergency mechanism with the state governments on May 6. If a county or city "unblocks" the number of newly diagnosed cases for more than 50 consecutive days (calculated on average per 100,000 people), the local A series of "closing the city" measures will be implemented again. As soon as the "unblocking" rules were introduced, the number of newly diagnosed cases in at least three counties in Germany had exceeded the above "red line". Cosfield County in North Rhine-Westphalia immediately announced the suspension of "unblocking" and continued to implement strict anti-epidemic measures.
Coincidentally. On the eve of the opening of France in phases starting from May 11, the new southwestern province of Dordogne, where the epidemic has been mild in the past few months, has seen a new cluster of infections on May 9. A man was diagnosed with an infection after attending a funeral in the local area on April 30. Currently, 9 persons have been diagnosed with the infection. On the evening of the 9th, France decided to extend the state of health emergency to July 10 while unblocking in stages.
Similar situations have occurred in key countries such as the United Kingdom and India. WHO Director-General Tan Desai emphasized at the epidemic briefing on May 11 that before the vaccine is developed, comprehensive control measures are the most effective way to deal with the virus.
Experts admit that the epidemic may be seriously underestimated
In fact, the clustered infection incident runs through the whole process of the global spread of the new crown epidemic. In early February, the "Diamond Princess" cruise liner docked in Yokohama, Japan, successively detected 723 confirmed cases, which once became the focus of global attention. It is also because of the occurrence of cluster infections that changed the epidemic situation in countries such as the United States and Italy, from outward imports to local community development, and gradually closed the "window of opportunity" to prevent the global spread of the virus.
Different countries have different definitions of aggregated infections, but the same thing is that there may be interpersonal transmission caused by close contact between cases, or the possibility of infection due to joint exposure. In this new crown epidemic, large cities have become a high incidence of clustered infections due to the concentration of people and mobility. In addition, some countries in Europe and the United States did not adopt timely and effective prevention and control measures in the early stage of the epidemic, making large cities such as New York, Rome, and Sao Paulo the cities with the largest number of diagnoses in their countries. Even the White House and the British royal family in the United States were not spared from the epidemic. ".
In the post- "unblocking" period, the gathering of people is inevitable, and the clustered infection seems to have become an "untimed bomb" without solution. Medical experts in many countries have issued warnings. Shigeru Oshio, deputy leader of the Japan Epidemic Expert Group, admitted on May 11 that Japan did not have an overall picture of the actual infections. The actual number of infected persons may even be 10 times, 15 times, or 20 times the statistical data. Anthony Fudge, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also said on the 12th that if the United States rushes to restart its economy, it will face the possibility of a new outbreak of the new crown epidemic.
Multiple-choice questions about resumption of work and anti-epidemic will exist for a long time
WHO Director-General Tan Desai said on May 11 that life will no longer return to normal. The implication is that no matter what level of echelon the country is in under the situation of epidemic differentiation, it is necessary to prepare for a protracted war. British Prime Minister Johnson also said: "The challenge now is to find a way forward that can maintain the hard-earned anti-epidemic results and reduce the burden of embargo measures." He also admitted: "It is very difficult to achieve balance."
Considering that various forms of “foot restraining orders” in various countries have locked more than half of the people in their homes in the past 4 months, Johnson ’s “difficulties”, in addition to the country ’s difficult trade-offs between fighting the epidemic and stabilizing the economy, may There is also the "passion" that people of all countries need to release. At the beginning of the "unblocking", some Italian people have started to hold cocktail parties along the canals of Milan. The day when France launched the “unblocking” on May 11th, the phenomenon of people gathering and drinking and chatting increased significantly. The Paris Police Department issued a special ban for this purpose, prohibiting people from gathering and drinking on both sides of the Seine. In the United States, the only country in the world where the number of infections has reached seven figures, the multi-state people have long relaxed their vigilance under the Trump administration's tough economic restart attitude.
The "aggregated infection" bomb has been buried at the feet of countries. It is difficult to find a balance between "anti-epidemic" and "unblocking", or even a multiple-choice question without a correct answer. Xu Liping, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy Institute, expressed an opinion similar to Tan Desai in an interview with a reporter from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily. "We need to learn to adapt to the new normal of the epidemic."
Newspaper Beijing, May 13th
China Youth Daily · China Youth Daily trainee reporter Ma Ziqian Source: China Youth Daily