“In the face of an imaginary enemy”: how the Polish authorities speculate on the “Russian threat”

Polish President Andrzej Duda signed an updated national security strategy for the country, which focuses on the military threat that allegedly emanates from Russia.

“The most serious threat is the neo-imperial policy of the authorities of the Russian Federation, carried out, inter alia, through military force. The aggression against Georgia, the illegal annexation of Crimea and actions in eastern Ukraine have violated the basic principles of international law, undermining the pillars of the European security system, ”the new document says.

From the point of view of official Warsaw, Moscow allegedly holds rallies of a "hybrid nature" that increase the risk of armed confrontation. It is also alleged that Russia "carries out diverse and all-encompassing actions by non-military means." This refers to some cyberattacks and the stuffing of misinformation "with the aim of destabilizing the structures of Western states and societies and sowing discord between the allies."

In the national security strategy, Warsaw expresses concern over the intensive development of the offensive capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces, including in the western strategic direction, and the expansion of the so-called anti-access / area denial or A2 / AD zones of restriction and prohibition of access and maneuver movement of NATO forces in the region.

Poland also sees a serious threat in large-scale exercises held in the Kaliningrad region. On these maneuvers, the Russian army, as the strategy says, works out “scenarios of conflict with NATO member states,” conducts the rapid deployment of large military units and “imitates the use of nuclear weapons”.

Moscow has repeatedly pointed out that such fears are not based on anything. Thus, speaking at the Munich Security Conference in February this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on foreign states to stop cultivating the thesis of the “Russian threat”.

• BTR-82A of the Baltic Fleet Marine Corps during exercises in the Kaliningrad Region
• RIA News
• © Igor Zarembo

According to the minister, the real threat to security lies in the destruction of the system of international agreements, the advancement of NATO infrastructure in the East, as well as in the excessive growth of the military budgets of Western states.

“In the hardware, the structure of the Cold War confrontation is being recreated. It’s time, before it’s too late, to abandon the cultivation of the phantom of the “Russian threat”, and any other threat, to remember what unites us, ”Lavrov emphasized.

Shortly before the Munich conference, in an interview with RIA Novosti, the Russian ambassador to Warsaw, Sergey Andreev, noted that the topic of the “Russian threat” was constantly being raised by Polish politicians and the media.

“I cannot judge the extent to which people in Poland really believe or do not believe in the threat of an attack from Russia. It seems that elementary logic should prompt them that Russia has neither a reason for this nor such intentions. However, the topic of the “Russian threat” is constantly being pumped up in the Polish political and information space, ”Andreev said.

RISI Leading Researcher Oleg Nemensky, in an interview with RT, noted that the Polish authorities purposefully intimidate citizens with the “Russian threat”, fixing in official documents unconfirmed information about allegedly conducting “hybrid wars” by Russian intelligence agencies, about organizing “cyber attacks” and about “aggressive plans "command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. 

“Polish statehood is largely based on the idea of ​​confronting Russia. Russophobia is now for the ruling elite a way of rallying the nation in the face of an imaginary enemy. Also, with the help of anti-Russian policy, Warsaw is trying to raise its status in the Western community, ”Nemensky explained. 

Gain course

The previous version of Poland’s national security strategy was adopted at the end of 2014. It did not speak directly about the “Russian threat”. The document emphasized that the security of Poland largely depends on the nature of relations between the West and Moscow. It also noted that the Ukrainian conflict that began that year negatively affects the security situation in the region.

According to Duda, the updated strategy takes into account changes in recent years. In addition to the “Russian threat” thesis, clauses on the importance of artificial intelligence and other technologies, on the dangers of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases, as well as on the growing strategic rivalry between the US, China and Russia, were added to the text of the document. 

Poland intends to defend against “Russian aggression” by strengthening cooperation with NATO members and strengthening its own Armed Forces.

As Duda said at the signing ceremony, since 2014 several positive events have occurred for the security of Poland. Among them - the appearance on the territory of the republic of US troops, an increase in the military budget by 40% and the size of the army by 30 thousand people.

Duda had previously argued that Russia allegedly acts aggressively on the international stage. For example, in March 2020, in an interview with the Polish publication Sieci, the president of the republic stated that Moscow was pursuing a policy that “cannot be considered credible and peacefully pursuing its own interests.” He accused the Russian Federation of supporting the Donbass militia and regular violation of the airspace of foreign states.

Oleg Nemensky connected Duda’s constant attacks on Moscow with the specifics of the course of the ruling party, Law and Justice, which aims to “strengthen Poland by military means by any means.” The expert noted that anti-Russian rhetoric allows the current leadership of the republic to increase allocations for the needs of the army and the purchase of expensive weapons in the United States.

Recall that in March 2018 Warsaw made a deal with Washington to supply the Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) in the amount of $ 4.75 billion. According to the contract, by 2024 the Polish army should receive 16 launchers, 208 missiles and four radar stations (radar) )

• Abrams American tank at exercises in Poland
• Reuters
• © Kacper Pempel

In March 2019, Northrop Grumman signed an almost $ 350 million contract with Poland for the supply of an integrated IBCS air defense and missile defense combat control system. These weapons are necessary for the integration of short-range and long-range air defense systems.

In early 2020, Poland signed a contract with the American company Lockheed Martin for the acquisition of 32 fifth-generation fighter-bombers F-35. However, later in Warsaw they thought about the appropriateness of this purchase. In April, on the air of RMF FM radio station, Minister of State Assets Jacek Sasin said that authorities could analyze the deal in connection with the negative economic consequences of the coronavirus epidemic.

“Intimidated by the imaginary Russian threat”

Interviewed by RT experts said that the Polish leadership is trying to use the Russophobic vector to further rapprochement with the United States. In particular, Warsaw favors an increase in the US military presence in the republic.

“In Poland, several years ago we came to the conclusion that NATO is not a sufficiently reliable structure of the country's military defense. Therefore, they laid the main emphasis in their foreign and defense policies on a direct military alliance with the United States. Contrary to all declarations of loyalty to the principles of the alliance, the Poles are focused exclusively on Americans, ”emphasized Oleg Nemensky.

Currently, over 5,000 US troops are serving in Poland on a rotational basis. At the same time, in Warsaw, hoping that Washington will decide on the construction of a permanent military base. Polish authorities said they were ready to allocate $ 2 billion for this.

“I must say that most Poles are intimidated by the imaginary Russian threat. Therefore, they positively perceive the information that Poland is growing militarily. This is such a vicious circle of Polish politics. From here comes the request for militarization and strengthening the alliance with the United States, ”said Nemensky.

In an interview with RT, an employee of the Center for Political Studies of Russia, professor of the Academy of Military Sciences Vadim Kozyulin noted that the militarization of Poland and the course towards "close friendship" with Washington were dictated primarily by the political ambitions of the current leadership of the republic.

In particular, Warsaw hopes in the future to strengthen its political positions in Europe and in the Western world as a whole. Russophobia, pumping money from the military budget, “special” (following the example of the UK) relations with the United States serve as tools to achieve this goal. However, Kozyulin doubts its feasibility. 

“Russophobia feeds many in Poland. The current Polish authorities are cultivating it diligently, including through speculation on historical topics relating to our common past. However, the policy pursued by Warsaw is not of a great mind. In response to Polish helpfulness, the United States behaves very pragmatically: they push through large arms contracts and are not going to open a military base in the country, realizing what consequences this may have in relations with Russia, ”concluded Kozyulin.