Foreign Policy: Have the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades started losing their influence?

Current indicators on the Iraqi scene foreshadow radical changes in the balance of power, as armed factions loyal to Iran - led by the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades - are about to lose the significant influence they have had since the formation of the Popular Mobilization in 2014 to fight the Islamic State.

In a report published by the American Foreign Policy magazine, writer Shelly Kittelson said that the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, five months after the killing of its leader Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis in a US raid near Baghdad airport, began to wield influence in Iraq.

Joining the state apparatus
The political vacuum created by the protests in central and southern Iraq after the resignation of the previous government in late 2019, in addition to the recent withdrawal of the international coalition from some bases, has led to the integration of some of the crowd factions out of Iranian control into the state apparatus.

The Popular Mobilization Forces were officially formed in 2014 after the fatwa issued by the country's supreme Shi’ite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, to halt the advance of the Islamic State that had controlled large parts of the northern and northwestern regions of Iraq.

The PMF at that time consisted of factions that existed before 2014 and were supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and other newly established factions called the religious threshold brigades, and their loyalty to the Marjaiya in Najaf.

On April 23, the four brigades of the Najaf Marjaiya announced their withdrawal from the PMF and their joining the special forces linked to the prime minister, which was considered by many to be a strong blow to Iranian influence.

The writer stated that the counterterrorism service, which supports the initiative to bring all the armed brigades under one command under central authority, will be in confrontation with the Iranian-backed crowd factions, which have long accused him of serving American interests.

In the recent period, the international coalition continued to provide support to the anti-terrorist agency while stopping its training and consulting tasks for the rest of the factions and units, in light of the escalation of tension between the United States and Iran and the Iraqi parliament voting to request the evacuation of all foreign forces from the country.

The writer considered that the Hezbollah brigades and other armed groups supported by Iran constitute a threat to the stability of Iraq and hamper his efforts to build an independent state. According to security officials in the border areas, many Hezbollah fighters continue to cross from Iraq to Syria and Iran, in defiance of the central authority in Baghdad.

The author emphasized that Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis was a charismatic figure with a strong presence, and he was able to build strong relations with some Sunni groups and their leaders, and played an important role in providing them with weapons and support to restore their areas of ISIS.

But the engineer - according to the author - did little to contain the tension between the armed groups linked to Iran and the Iraqi intelligence services, especially since these groups have remained operating over the past years structurally outside the country and surround their activities with a lot of secrecy.

Accusations and challenge
It does not seem that the tensions between Hezbollah and the Iraqi authorities will be less severe after the departure of the engineer, but rather that things are heading for more tension and escalation. She accused the Hezbollah Brigades, Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi of participating in the assassination of Soleimani and the engineer, by providing intelligence information to the United States.

The writer explained that Hezbollah poses a challenge to the new prime minister, as these battalions impose their control over the city of Jurf al-Sakhr in Babil governorate under the pretext of protecting the city of Karbala from the threat of the Islamic State, as it is reported that it recently took control of some parts in the Green Zone in central Baghdad that includes the headquarters The Iraqi government and many foreign embassies.

Although the Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office denied such news, analyst Michael Knights said in a tweet that “the Hezbollah Brigades are not waiting for the Prime Minister’s office to give them anything, as they control everything they see as their right.”

The author indicated that the Iraqi government and other stakeholders are taking steps to separate armed groups from the Hezbollah Brigades, but they are working with caution due to the risks that such movements may entail.

Yazan al-Jubouri - the son of the well-known Iraqi politician Mishaan al-Jubouri, and one of the Sunni leaders in the popular crowd - expresses his fear of things breaking out after the departure of the engineer, who, according to him, was the only person able to control Hezbollah brigades and factions close to Iran.

The writer confirmed that the Hezbollah Brigades and other factions loyal to Tehran worked during the protests that erupted in Iraq since late last year, to enhance their influence in the central and southern governorates, and they spread terror among the peaceful demonstrators and assassinated many activists.

Popular support for the Hezbollah brigades in the southern governorates appears at its lowest levels, as it is reported that one of the most important demands of the protesters: the disbanding of all armed militias, the restriction of weapons in the hands of the state, and the involvement of all factions in political action.