The R-number, or reproduction number, shows how many people each infected self infects on average. The R-figure for the corona epidemic is now in Sweden just under 1. This means that every person infected is on average infected under one person.

"If each person infects less than one person, the epidemic will ring off," says Tom Britton, professor of mathematics.

But there are examples that the r-number can fluctuate. Now, most recently in Germany, for example, where the r-figure has increased to 1.1 according to the Federal Infection Protection Agency RKI from a few days earlier it was at 0.83.

At the beginning of April, the r-figure in Sweden was 1.4. At the end of April it was 0.85.

- No one knows exactly what happens when relieving restrictions. But as the r-number rises, the spread of infection is accelerating, he says in Aktuellt

When restrictions are eased in Sweden, one can hope that the immunity increased, which would keep the r's down, explains Tom Britton.

- But if people ignore the restrictions, which it is reported on, it raises the number of reproductions.

Tom Britton has, with the help of previous calculations, estimated that 8,000 to 20,000 people may die in Sweden in covid-19.

- There are some new research findings that show that flock immunity may occur earlier than previously thought. That would mean that fewer will die, he says in Aktuellt.

If the new findings are correct, he estimates that the death toll will instead reach between 6,000 and 14,000 people.

- So a slightly less dark picture at the moment, says Tom Britton

Javascript is turned off

Javascript must be turned on to play video

Learn more about browser support

The browser is not supported

SVT does not support playback in your browser. We therefore recommend that you switch to another browser.

Learn more about browser support