Beirut (AFP)

Main financial support of the Syrian regime, the empire of Rami Makhlouf however falters today, exposing the tensions between the businessman and his cousin, President Bashar al-Assad, who is trying to strengthen his power after nine years of war, according to experts.

Mystery hangs over the reasons that pushed Makhlouf, Syria's first fortune according to experts, to come out at the beginning of the month of his silence to reveal his disagreements with the government, thus engaging in a battle that seems lost. 'advanced.

The 51-year-old businessman posted two unexpected videos on Facebook in which he challenged President Assad while spilling over arrears claimed by the state and intimidation by the security services.

"He senses the increasing pressure to marginalize him," said Jihad Yazigi, director of the online business site "The Syria Report".

"He tried for a long time to resist, before launching his last card and exposing the family dissent" in the light of day, he said, adding: "it will cost him dearly".

However, it is a friendship going back to childhood that binds the president and Mr. Makhlouf, targeted by the American and European sanctions against Damascus.

Today, he still runs Syriatel, the country's leading mobile operator, a flagship of the national economy.

But his quarrel with power erupted in the summer of 2019, authorities taking control of his charity before dissolving affiliated militias.

In December, when the government froze the assets of several businessmen for tax evasion and illegal enrichment during the war, Mr. Makhlouf was notably concerned.

"In this type of autocratic regime (...), no one is immune to an ukase," said analyst Fabrice Balanche.

Referring to the "anti-corruption campaigns, recurrent because ineffective" in Syria, he recalls that the unacknowledged objective is often to "bring down the heads that protrude".

- "Make business flourish" -

It is in any case a snub for the one who experienced a meteoric rise when Bashar al-Assad took over from his father Hafez in 2000, becoming a pillar of the economic liberalization started.

Before the war of 2011, its activities included real estate or the electricity sector. "He controlled whole swathes" of the economy, summed up Mr. Yazigi, recalling that "nobody could invest in certain areas without going through it".

This is why from the start of the pro-democracy protests in 2011, Mr. Makhlouf is one of the figures most vilified by the opposition, which accuses him of having taken control of the economy.

The vagueness reigns over the extent of his fortune, estimated at several billion dollars. During the war years, he would have grown his activities.

"Thanks to front companies, he was one of the few able to circumvent the sanctions and bring freight ships to Syria," assures Mr. Balanche.

"He continued to grow his business with the addition of agro-food products and hydrocarbons," he adds.

Therefore, why these current tensions?

"The government took a lot of money from businessmen. It seems that Makhlouf refused (at one time) to pay," after having financed the war effort for a long time, said an Arab diplomat based in Beirut.

"There are reports that he tried to get money out of the country."

The backlash could also be linked to its status as an economic heavyweight, faced with a state facing a "pressing need for liquidity", added the diplomat.

Because Syria has seen its economy continue to deteriorate in recent months: the Syrian pound continues a historic fall against the dollar, while inflation exceeded 100% in 2019.

- "Bulky cousin" -

During the war, Mr. Makhlouf's public interventions were counted on the fingers of his hand and the surprise was total when he opened a Facebook account in April.

In the first video addressed to Bashar al-Assad, he affirms that the Treasury demands from him 178.5 million dollars in arrears (162.2 million euros) and pleads for a rescheduling, arguing his vital to the survival of Syriatel.

In the second, he denounced "pressure" from the "security services" who arrested his employees, dozens, confirms the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH).

The crisis has prompted experts to raise pressure from Moscow, which may have asked Damascus to find alternative funding. Some media have reported family rivalries involving the first lady, Asmaa al-Assad.

"It's hard to know what's going on," said Yazigi. "It may be that Asmaa (...) seeks to guarantee his future and that of his son", by removing the Makhlouf family, he added.

The tensions are reminiscent of the rivalries in the 1980s between Hafez and his brother Rifaat, who ultimately went into exile.

"Bashar + eliminates + a bulky cousin, just like his father + eliminated + Rifaat", says Mr. Balanche. He nuances however: "in the case of Rami, Bashar al-Assad will be content to cut off his wings."

© 2020 AFP