Coronavirus: Chinese Diplomacy Pursues "Systematic Response"

Sinologist Alice Ekman. Observatory Editions

Text by: Heike Schmidt

On the dock for concealing the scale of the epidemic, China responds without complexes. Gone are the days when diplomacy kept a low profile, estimates the sinologist Alice Ekman, responsible for Asia at the Institute for Security Studies of the European Union (EUISS) and author of the book "Bright red - the ideal Chinese Communist ”, published in the editions of the Observatory.

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RFI: US President Donald Trump says he has evidence that the virus has escaped from a Wuhan laboratory and calls for an international investigation. Will China eventually accept to invite international researchers, when the WHO and more and more countries request it?

Alice Ekman: It is unlikely that China will accept quickly, while the Sino-American tensions are very harsh on the origin of the virus. It is a question of international positioning. Official Chinese communication around the virus is lively and quickly moved to the field of competition between political systems, no longer hesitating to underline the alleged strengths of the Chinese system compared to the alleged weaknesses of the European or American systems. There is nothing to indicate that this positioning will evolve, that China will change its communication strategy. On the contrary, I see rather an exacerbation of pre-existing tensions between China and the United States in the context of the Covid-19 crisis, and to a lesser extent between China and certain European countries. The 'eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth' response will continue and it is unlikely that Beijing will enter into a period of questioning or introspection.

Beijing responds aggressively to each criticism - some experts already speak of 'warrior wolf diplomacy'. Exit low profile diplomacy?

Yes, exit for several years already. Current President Xi Jinping has launched Chinese diplomacy on a path that I call "systematic response". This was already the case long before the Covid-19 crisis, but the past few months have revealed it more widely. It must be remembered that within the Chinese Communist Party, there is this perception of 'hostile Western forces' - a perception that sometimes flirts with conspiracy theories that foreign actors have long wanted to change the Chinese political system, including by manipulating local actors and spreading ideas that would not be in line with those of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping considers that to face it, not only must we say 'stop', but we must also respond in a systematic manner, not to let anything go, even if it means reversing the criticism. This approach is decided and encouraged at the highest level. It is a general trend. It applies to many Chinese ministries and official institutions and is not the result of individual or isolated behavior of diplomats, or restricted to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

China believes it has won the health battle. It boasts of its effectiveness against the Covid-19 and even sets itself up as a global model, sending its medical aid everywhere. Will it emerge strengthened from this crisis, or will it cause more and more annoyance?

One thing is certain: the health, logistics, medical and technological offer that China offers is accepted by certain countries. This offer is perceived positively, whether in Pakistan, Cambodia, Serbia or in certain Maghreb countries. Conversely, at the same time, this assistance - or more precisely the official communication which surrounds it - annoys a growing number of countries. A certain form of polarization vis-à-vis China is emerging. It is not a cold war type polarization in the strict sense, with two frozen blocks, but rather the emergence of at least two poles, one of which is constituted by what China considers to be its circle of "friendly" countries. The objective declared for several years by Chinese diplomacy is to offer its initiatives - new silk routes to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) - to as many countries as possible, including to the allies of the United States. United. In the current context of the Covid-19 crisis, it will probably not succeed in widening this circle of friendly countries, but China is not isolated either. This circle could shrink, but at the same time, it may be more solid, made up of countries which unconditionally support China, in a context of deep and prolonged rivalries between Beijing and Washington.

The Chinese know that the authorities initially concealed the extent of the epidemic and muzzled whistleblowers like Doctor Li Wenliang. Has the Communist Party Lost the Confidence of Part of the Population?

It is always difficult to measure public opinion in China, given the propaganda and opacity surrounding political issues. From a general point of view, the Party does not seem significantly weakened by the health crisis. President Xi Jinping has consolidated the party's presence at all levels of society since 2013, and this dense geographic network has not been challenged by the crisis. On the contrary, the resident committees, affiliated with the Party, have been at the forefront in the management and surveillance of neighborhoods, and the party has continued to recruit in recent weeks, especially among medical personnel. Party cells have even been created in temporary hospitals. Regarding Doctor Li Wenliang, the official communication tried to readjust it: after having called him to order, the authorities a few weeks later erected him as a national hero, faced with the national emotion which aroused his death. Overall, the party remains a very solid institution, especially since it has substantial technological resources at its service, in addition to the traditional human surveillance methods.

Can we expect China to recover more quickly than everyone from this health disaster?

China is communicating massively around what it calls the Party's “victory” against the virus and the calendar will encourage it to continue on this path. 2021 will be the year of major celebrations around the 100th anniversary of the creation of the Chinese Communist Party. On this date, China will communicate widely on its medical victory as much as on its economic victory. She will say that the economy is back on track, that China has definitely turned the page on the crisis on all fronts, even if the reality of the facts is much more complex. For the moment, the recovery remains far away, as the Chinese economy still depends heavily on exports, and in particular on demand from European countries and the United States. One thing is certain: China is betting more than ever on its technological development. At the end of March, the central government announced a recovery plan which would be geared towards "new infrastructures", that is to say 5G, "data centers", smart cities, "blockchain technology", between other. More than ever, in a context of technological rivalries between Beijing and Washington, China will try to become autonomous and find 100% Chinese technological solutions. She hopes that this will be a growth engine and a means of strengthening the presence of her companies in the sector abroad. More than ever, competition will rage in this area, and technological advances will quickly become geostrategic challenges.

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  • After Covid-19 to a new world?
  • Coronavirus
  • China
  • Health and Medicine

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