Behind the map of the Hopkins University epidemic: the core team is two young Chinese

Chinese students studying the global epidemic map

　　The new Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Tracking Map of Johns Hopkins University in the United States has an average daily global hits of up to 1 billion. Its core team is two young and handsome Chinese young men and their young female mentors. Dong Ensheng, 30 years old; Du Hongru, 25 years old, are first-year doctoral students who entered Johns Hopkins University last fall

　　As Chinese students, Dong Ensheng and Du Hongru had concerns and concerns about the New Crown epidemic earlier than most American scientists. It is this superposition of professional sensitivity and sensitivity to epidemic information that made them realize the significance and value of the world epidemic map earlier

　　On May 7, EST, the United States Johns Hopkins University epidemic tracking map showed that the number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus infection has exceeded 3.75 million and the deaths exceeded 260,000; the number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 1.22 million and the deaths exceeded 73,000.

　　The background of the map was dark and the epidemic was blood red. The numbers are simple and abstract. They are updated every quarter of an hour. They are heavy again, stinging their eyes.

　　The death caused by the new corona virus has occurred more than 260,000 times, most of which are silent and lonely. The patient could not see relatives in the ward, and there was no funeral after death, and his life would not be reported. The overwhelming number of deaths is like a black hole, causing the dead to lose their names and faces.

　　However, the numbers are still important. Not only important for decision makers of governments and public health institutions in various countries, but also for making risk assessment and epidemic trend prediction models, sociodemographic analysis and other fields of researchers, but also for everyone under the shadow of the epidemic. in this way.

　　This epidemic map, which is still being enriched and refined, has an average daily global hits of up to 1 billion and a maximum daily hit of 4.5 billion. It is the most cited source of epidemic data for governments, researchers, and mainstream media. This epidemic map also drove governments and private institutions in various states of the United States and many countries around the world to produce similar epidemic maps and improve data accuracy, thereby enhancing the people's right to know.

Behind the map

　　However, many people have only recently learned that the core team of this epidemic-tracking map that is spreading all over the world are two young Chinese men and their young mentors.

　　Dong Ensheng, 30 years old; Du Hongru, 25 years old. They were all first-year doctoral students who entered Johns Hopkins University last fall. Both names are very Confucian.

　　Their mentor is called Lauren Gardner (Lauren Gardner), an associate professor, only 35 years old, and studied architecture. Prior to teaching at Johns Hopkins University last year, she was a senior lecturer in civil engineering at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) in Sydney, Australia, and currently only brings these two students from China.

　　Their faculty, called the Department of Civil Engineering and Systems Engineering, sounds incomparable to the epidemiology and virology. But nothing really just happened suddenly.

　　Dong Ensheng said that this is the world's first real-time updated map of the epidemic world. The idea was formally produced. It came from the morning of January 21st when he and his tutor had coffee in the library-this is a routine way of communication between teachers and students. Both people have the same idea, "just hit it."

　　In front of meeting with his mentor, he has already started to collect data and make preparations. "It was purely for academic research purposes from the beginning."

　　That night, Dong Ensheng spent seven or eight hours inputting data and making tracking charts until three or four in the morning. After reviewing and modifying other procedures, the instructor first published the first version of the world map of the epidemic on social media Twitter on the 22nd of Eastern Time-just in time for Wuhan to announce the "closure of the city" on January 23rd Beijing time.

　　Dong Ensheng said that at the beginning there were almost no ready-made templates to apply. He kept inputting data and coordinates. When the data is presented on the world map, he gradually realizes that this is the first in terms of an epidemic map that is updated in real time on a global scale.

　　Drinking a cup of coffee with the instructor and driving the night train for seven or eight hours can start a world first. Is it so easy and simple?

　　During the US presidential election, politicians endorsed a certain candidate with a common idiom, which is to praise this person "to prepare for it all his life." Dong Ensheng and Du Hongru are very young, but in terms of their study and work experience, this sentence can really be applied.

　　Dong Ensheng said that he graduated from the Geography Department of Chongqing Southwest University and went to study in the United States in 2012. After obtaining a master's degree, he has worked internships and jobs in the IT and health departments, software companies, power companies, and telecommunications companies of the US local government.

　　He has received formal academic training in geography and statistics. His current research areas include network science, mobility modeling, machine learning, spatial analysis and visualization, and interdisciplinary research on infectious diseases. Before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, he was involved in predicting the measles risk in the United States and Pacific island countries and regions and the dengue fever outbreak in Sri Lanka.

　　Du Hongru also has an interdisciplinary background. He is a 2017 graduate of the School of Chemical Engineering of Tianjin University. He studied at the University of Edinburgh in the Department of Chemical Materials Science and the University of Wisconsin-Madison in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research.

　　He is good at mathematical model and path optimization, and his main research directions include epidemic big data processing, network optimization and mathematical modeling to study and predict the development of global epidemics. He joined the epidemic map team on February 1, and the code for automatic data update was written by him.

　　He said that it is possible to imagine virus transmission as a kind of network. All counties and counties are network nodes, and the population flow between each node constitutes a connection. Regardless of predicting epidemic trends through mathematical modeling or conducting population sociological analysis, the system science perspective is very important.

　　As Chinese students, Dong Ensheng and Du Hongru had concerns and concerns about the New Crown epidemic earlier than most American scientists. It is this superposition of professional sensitivity and sensitivity to epidemic information that made them realize the significance and value of the world epidemic map earlier. The previous academic training and experience accumulation also led them to not only have a brain hole to "think" but also have the ability to "do" naturally under the guidance of their tutors.

　　But "doing" is no easier than "thinking". From late January to the present, Dong Ensheng and Du Hongru have put a lot of effort and effort into the upgrading, improvement and maintenance of the epidemic map and related research on the epidemic data.

　　In the manual input phase, they work about 10 hours a day. When switching to fully automatic data update in mid-March, the daily workload reached 15 or 6 hours, and the tutor also worked with them until three or four in the morning. Even after the team is expanded to about 50 people and the data is automatically updated in real time, the daily work of reviewing and correcting the data ranges from five or six hours to as many as ten hours.

　　The devil is often hidden in the details. On April 13th, Johns Hopkins University ’s new crown epidemic data statistics website created an oolong incident, which mistakenly reported the number of global diagnoses to more than 2 million people, because the actual number of Florida cases 21019 was mistakenly filled as 123019 , Resulting in an error of more than 100,000 cases. But not long after, they adjusted the number back to about 1.9 million.

　　In the maintenance of epidemic maps, it is important to check the data to ensure accuracy. Du Hongru said that because the data of the US CDC lags behind, they mainly rely on the data reported by the local media of the United States and the Twitter of health officials of various states. The outbreaks in other countries and regions are based on websites such as Worldometers and local media. Because the update time is earlier than the official data, the next day the computer automatically updates, the team will check the US epidemic data and the data of the state CDCs, and other countries and regions will check the data with the World Health Organization.

　　Dong Ensheng said that in order to ensure the accuracy of the data, they also took four measures, one is to keep the original record of the data, each time there is a retrospective record to check, the second is to summarize the time series table, the third is to list all correction records, and the fourth Organize manual verification.

　　It is worth mentioning that behind the map of the Johns Hopkins epidemic world, there are still more active young Chinese.

　　According to Dong Ensheng and Du Hongru, there are currently about 50 operation teams, among which the volunteers of the data verification team are mainly Chinese students from various departments. The epidemic data provided by China is indelible for international research. The new crown epidemic response provides new opportunities for China to conduct interdisciplinary international infectious disease research, strengthen global public health participation, and improve the visibility and internationalization of epidemic data in government departments and research institutions.

stand out

　　According to Dong Ensheng and Du Hongru, the Johns Hopkins University epidemic map stands out, thanks to many factors. There are eight main reasons for the combination:

　　One is to start early and take the lead in the world, and the data is more accurate and faster than other epidemic maps that appear later; second, it is more professional in epidemiology, and the epidemic in the United States is accurate to the county level. The public and the public are of great use; the third is the professionalism shown in the mapping; the fourth is the openness and transparency of the data, all the data is uploaded to GitHub, which provides open source data for all government decision-making departments and scientific researchers worldwide; the fifth is to ensure timely updates , Users have a high degree of participation, and many users in non-English-speaking countries such as Germany, France, and Italy will actively report to them the latest epidemic reported by local media, much faster than the number of confirmed diagnoses awaiting official review channels; The contrast between black and red is high, which constitutes a strong visual impact. Seventh, Johns Hopkins University enjoys a high reputation in the global medical and public health fields, making the epidemic map from the beginning, it is difficult for ordinary universities to The authority gained by the school's reputation; eight is the initial mentor Twitter to the media reports of various countries, resulting in social networks and Snowball effect body spread.

　　From the World Health Organization headquarters in Geneva, to the United Nations Headquarters in New York and the White House epidemic in Washington, and even the mainstream media in the United States, such as the New York Times, their statistics are also used.

　　However, Dong Ensheng specifically pointed out that the epidemic map and epidemic data cannot fully reflect a country's ability to fight the epidemic. At present, the international community lacks global guidelines for epidemic reporting and no unified reporting standards. Different countries and regions have different statistical calibers, different levels of virus detection, and different views on the epidemic.

　　In Europe and the United States, there is also a lot of confusing, missing and overlapping statistical data. For example, the US prison system is divided into federal prisons and local prisons. It is unknown whether federal prison outbreaks are counted in the counties and counties. Because of the privacy and related laws of prisoners, many places are unwilling to announce prison outbreaks. In the border areas between states and counties, patients who are discharged or transferred often cross the state, and how to count is also a problem. In addition, considering possible double calculations, the epidemic situation of the US military has not yet been counted in the epidemic situation map.

　　In the world, sometimes there is a "data reference cycle", that is, the data on related websites may be derived from the Johns Hopkins University epidemic map, so it needs to be carefully screened to continuously improve the ability to directly obtain data.

　　Dong Ensheng believes that although the US epidemic is serious, from the perspective of scientific research and big data innovation, many practices are worth learning.

　　For example, various epidemic situation prediction models are emerging in an endless stream, and related research can be described as "Eight Immortals Cross the Sea, Each Shows His Magical Skills." Regardless of whether it is for the academic world or the public, this mathematical model analysis is non-political. Whether the prediction is right or wrong, it can create a discussion space for public health countermeasures and spawn many new ideas and new countermeasures.

　　Pursuing multi-disciplinary intellectual integration, "cross-border" features are outstanding. In the United States, undergraduates can choose courses across majors. It is not uncommon in the United States to obtain an example of a master of science like Dong Ensheng and a PhD in engineering. And to avoid the single presentation of the immune situation map, it just needs a variety of academic backgrounds such as geography, computer and disease transmission.

　　In fact, the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University was renamed last year, and this initiative itself highlights the "cross-border" color. Dong Ensheng said that system engineering itself is a new field in the United States. In addition to the spread of disease, it has also cooperated with the Public Health College and the American hospital system in several projects including CT scanning and artificial intelligence.

　　In addition, in the field of scientific research, no seniority is discussed, so that those who are capable can stand out relatively smoothly. This is also very important for fostering an atmosphere of scientific research and innovation. Dong Ensheng, Du Hongru and their mentor Gardner are all "newcomers" who entered Johns Hopkins University last year and are young. The epidemic maps they launched quickly received multi-faceted support from schools such as funding, server maintenance, library resources, and operation team building.

　　Johns Hopkins University ’s reputation in the global public health field has certainly given them a superior platform, but their sharpness, vitality, and enthusiasm as the "new blood" have in turn added gold to the school brand.

　　Dong Ensheng and Du Hongru both admired their mentor Associate Professor Gardner and praised Youjia. According to them, the young female tutor is always working at two or three o'clock in the morning, reviewing and guiding students' work, handling error feedback emails, coordinating with relevant parties, and reporting to the government and Congress ... although he has a very high With his academic enthusiasm and professional acumen, Gardner does not obscure the work and contributions of students, and provides many opportunities for students, and pays attention to helping and protecting students.

　　Even more commendable is that they are "very principled", insist on data disclosure, and refuse to commercialize the epidemic map. Some large American first-class companies provide high capital and favorable cooperation conditions, which seem to be "win-win", but the team still refused, insisted on open sharing, and opposed excessive linking with business. It is this principle that has enabled Johns Hopkins University Outbreak Tracking Map to gain wider public influence.

　　It's almost time for May. Today, the Johns Hopkins University Outbreak Tracking Map has been upgraded in multiple versions, and the data classification is more abundant and detailed. In the world epidemic map, not only the number of diagnosed cases in more than 180 countries and regions, but also the number of confirmed cases in various states and provinces. Important data such as death rate, detection rate and hospitalization rate. In the United States epidemic map, not only the data of the number of confirmed cases in each state and the proportion of population and lethality, but also the ranking of the 50 counties with the highest number of confirmed cases in the United States and the ranking of the 20 counties with the highest number of deaths.

　　In addition, there is a special section to analyze a series of important data to judge the spread of the epidemic, including the ethnic distribution of the epidemic in each state of the United States; a global comparison of the number of confirmed cases and deaths calculated per 100,000 population; the 10 outbreaks in the world In the country, the daily new case data that determines how the epidemic curve is evened out, etc ...

　　Du Hongru said that reliable data is the foundation of research and decision-making. The massive visits obtained from the Johns Hopkins University Epidemic Tracking Map can show the huge demand for reliable and objective information. As the influence of the epidemic map expanded, he felt more pressure and was more cautious in updating and verifying the data. This is a major public health event faced by the whole world. The significance of the epidemic map goes beyond academic research itself.

　　Dong Ensheng said that since the outbreak, he has been immersed in updating data and updating the epidemic map, "all forget what life is like." "For me, work has never stopped, more and more, heavier, sometimes suddenly looked up, the epidemic situation is around, the world is really changing fast."

　　The youth in the epidemic is believed to impress Dong Ensheng and Du Hongru. The epidemic will eventually pass, and the pace of world change will not slow down. Bless the two Chinese young people to go further and further. (Reporter Xu Jianmei)