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The enemy was at home. The minority partner of the government coalition that leads the Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland has forced the powerful Jaroslaw Kaczynski to accept what the opposition had been unsuccessfully demanding, that the presidential elections scheduled for this Sunday do not take place at not having the necessary conditions for it.

There will therefore be no elections, much to the delight of the opposition and reassurance from the European Commission, which was watching the Polish mail-order experiment with suspicion . From now on, the "oberek" begins, a Polish folk dance with fast steps and constant turns. So dizzying is that dance, that some Polish analysts predict that the president and candidate for reelection, Andrezj Duda, could suffer a setback.

Doubt, for the moment, has expressed satisfaction with the last-minute agreement reached by all the political forces and that this morning supported the Sejm (Congress) with a vote that amended the refusal of the Senate, dominated by the opposition, to celebrate the elections by mail this Sunday.

"I hope that the presidential elections take place as soon as possible and in conditions of security for all," said Duda, who starts as a clear favorite.

He made the pact with political forces Jaroslaw Gowin, a former Polish president and leader of the minority party in the government coalition. Without their votes, and when no one in the party wanted to stain themselves by giving the green light to elections with room for irregularities, the PiS would not have passed a law that considers voting by mail as a possible form of participation in the present circumstances. The PiS resigned on May 10, agreed to pass the organization of the vote by mail to the Electoral Commission and, in return, achieved an unprecedented parliamentary majority. A total of 236 deputies, 13 more than necessary for the majority, voted in favor, with 11 abstentions.

The PiS gives in, but will not give up its advantage . Since the Polish Constitution prevents postponing the presidential elections, Sunday's elections are not officially postponed. Simply, they will not be held, so that the Constitutional Court declares them invalid . Once that ruling occurs, the president of the Sejm, Elzbieta Witek, will announce "the first possible date" for new elections.

The government is in a hurry. Duda, his candidate, is currently leading the polls and his term ends on August 6, when the social and economic effects caused by the pandemic will be more tangible and, eventually, may take its toll. Word is already circulating that Witek could opt for May 23 or June 2 , to allow time for a second round. At this time, however, that second round would not be necessary. Polls give the official candidate more than 50% support, so his reelection is guaranteed.

The opposition has asked that the new presidential elections be in the autumn at the earliest , to allow the Electoral Commission to design the logistics and time for the pandemic to subside and the parties to establish contact with the electorate, which now, with the right to meeting and assembly in quarantine, it is impossible except for Duda.

Kaczynski has two cards up his sleeve . You can let Duda fulfill her mandate in August and let the president of the Sejm temporarily take her place until the holding of those elections, as requested by the opposition, in the autumn. Or you can put into practice the "atomic option", the most radical pirouette of the "oberek". It would consist of convincing Duda to resign, a temporary sacrifice that would hardly alter either the Government's plans or the candidate's options.

EUROPE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE DEVELOPMENT

The European Commission (EC) has noted the postponement of the presidential elections in Poland, and has assured that it will closely monitor its future organization , according to the European Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders.

Reynders had already stated that the Polish presidential elections on May 10 did not guarantee "free" and "legitimate" elections due to the conditions caused by Covid-19. On April 7, the United Nations High Commissioner issued a statement specifying that the current situation of limitation of movement and concentration of citizens "make an electoral campaign basically impossible . " Therefore, he considered that "these elections, in the current circumstances, will not respect international standards."

The Polish opposition, which has spread its voice of protest to all corners through former President of the European Council and former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, rebounding a victory. They have bought time . The elections are still in limbo.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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