A research team from the United Arab Emirates University, at the Roads and Transport Research and Traffic Safety Center, is devising mathematical models and computer algorithms to monitor, track and predict the ways of the spread of the Corona virus (Covid-19) in society, by monitoring the big data and information available on the movement of individuals across the city. , To draw a graphical and geographical map that works to identify the central regions that contribute to accelerating the spread of the epidemic, and the extent of its decline in the event that these areas are partially or completely closed, with the aim of finding a balanced solution between the curfew and creating an economic outlet for the country.
The Director of the Roads, Transport and Traffic Safety Center at the Emirates University, Dr. Hamad Abdullah Al Jasmi, stressed that public health efforts are highly dependent on predicting the potential for diseases around the world, as researchers resort to mathematical models that can predict the places where people who are likely to be infected with the disease, and the possibility Transferring them to him to those places and developing them according to the needs of the state, its geographical area, its population, and many other factors that affect stopping the spread of this virus and its geographical spread in the country's cities.
He said that the success of the research team in devising a new mathematical system to monitor and follow up the "Covid-19" virus inside the country will help a lot in reducing the spread of this epidemic, considering that the research team is working on developing models for the results of changes in public behavior and government procedures, before those changes occur and work to revise A template designed to assist government officials in the country to combat the spread of this epidemic.
He said: «We have developed an algorithm that supports optimal decision-making to partially close a particular city, with three steps: First, to identify the central areas through which many people cross and contribute to accelerating the spread of the epidemic. Second, legalizing movement to and from these areas. Third, the algorithm calculates the extent of discouraging the epidemic prevalence rate in the total network of the city following the closure of these specific neighborhoods, considering that this methodology is very useful for finding a balanced solution between curfews and creating an economic outlet for the country ».
He added: “After we applied the algorithm to a number of central neighborhoods and partially analyzed the scenario of closing it, we were able to foresee a significant decrease in the epidemic prevalence rate in the city, which is much better than closing the entire city or closing unimportant neighborhoods and leaving other important tasks unknown.”
Draw a graphical map to identify areas that contribute to the acceleration of the epidemic.