President Macron's “African” agenda turned upside down by the crisis

Text by: Pierre Firtion Follow

The Africa / France summit postponed, the Africa2020 season postponed, the president's trip to South Africa and Angola postponed… the Covid-19 crisis has greatly impacted the African calendar of Emmanuel Macron, who celebrates this Thursday 3rd anniversary of his accession to the Elysée Palace. Not enough to call into question the trajectory started in Ouagadougou. "On the fundamentals, we stay the course," assure the French president's diplomatic advisers to RFI. 

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It was to be the year of Africa in France. Everything had been prepared for this for many months. But the Coronavirus crisis went through there and the Elysée had to review part of its strategy. If the Africa2020 cultural season - which was originally scheduled to start on June 1 - should be postponed by a few months and start before the end of the year, the Africa / France summit - scheduled for June 4 to 6 in Bordeaux - is not simply postponed to 2021. Because of the pandemic, " the content of the project " will be redesigned, says one in the entourage of the Head of State. Another consequence: Emmanuel Macron's trip to South Africa and Angola scheduled for the end of May - and which was to mark a new stage in opening up to non-French-speaking countries - has been postponed. 

A course maintained but construction sites probably delayed

Despite these imponderables, the Elysée assured it, there will be " no significant change " in the policy: " the agenda of Ouagadougou remains the guideline ". On all " fundamentals " - such as the announced end of the CFA franc, the restitution of cultural property, the opening of archives on Rwanda or the increase in official development assistance - the president intends to " stay the course ". It also intends to " accelerate on certain markers of the policy engaged ", because the pandemic has come to reinforce some of the choices made. The rapprochement initiated with several non-French-speaking countries has borne fruit during the initiative launched to fight the epidemic on the continent. "President Kagame, Prime Minister Abiy, President Ramaphosa have been driving partners with us ”, explains one of Emmanuel Macron's advisers with reference to Rwanda, Ethiopia and South Africa. Education and health, in which France has invested, have also been “ good markers, good priorities, we judge in the entourage of the president , and we must no doubt speed up the maneuver on these two priorities . "

If the course is therefore maintained, the crisis due to the coronavirus should nevertheless delay certain projects. The disruption of the legislative calendar will likely result in the postponement of the presentation and consideration of several highly anticipated texts. On what date will the bill initiating the end of the CFA franc be submitted to the Council of State and then to Parliament? When will the development programming law be presented, which should in particular act as a refocusing of aid on Sahelian countries? The Elysée ensures that the latter text will be presented " in the coming weeks ". But the past urges caution: since February 2019, the presentation of this bill has been repeatedly postponed. What about the bill allowing the restitution of cultural property? Again, no date has been set. If in the entourage of the president, it is estimated that " the work has been done so that a law can be quickly presented to the Council of Ministers ", we also admit not having visibility on the new legislative calendar ...

Towards the announcement of a retention of Barkhane?

The only file, in the end, to be little impacted by the crisis: the fight against terrorism. Despite the pandemic, the G5 Nouakchott summit - to be held on June 29 and 30 - should be maintained. As he said himself on RFI on April 15 and as the Elysee still confirms this week, Emmanuel Macron intends to go there to take stock of the commitments made at the Pau summit, on January 13th. Will he announce the continuation of Operation Barkhane there? If it is still too early to say, the entourage of the president today judges " the dynamic favorable both at the operational level as at the political level ". As decided in Pau, the effort was put on the area known as the three borders. And the Elysée believes today that " the balance of power has been reversed " in this area, thanks to " the combination of efforts between Barkhane and the G5 Sahel forces ", a combination which " has made it possible to regain control certain spaces ”.

Same positive judgment about the evolution of the Malian political process, where we note “ a revival of dynamics in particular in the implementation of the peace agreement in the north with important symbolic stages like the visit of the Prime Minister to Kidal and the beginning of redeployment of the Malian armed forces in this area ”. The announcement of a continuation of Barkhane therefore seems to take shape, even if less than two months from the summit, the Elysée takes great care to specify that " all options " remain on the table.

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