Angela Merkel, who already authorized the resumption of the Bundesliga in mid-May, announced, after a video conference with the regional ministers-presidents, new deconfinement measures on Wednesday. News that should not be "celebrated before the time," according to Hans Stark, the adviser for Franco-German relations at IFRI, guest of Europe 1 Wednesday.

INTERVIEW

In Germany, an accelerated deconfinement takes place, in correlation between the Länder and the central power. Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke on Wednesday afternoon to give Berlin a final green light for this great general restart orchestrated by the regions. A great day for Germany? We must still remain nuanced.

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Almost all of the restriction measures lifted

With the latest "very satisfactory" infection figures, Germany decided on Wednesday to take further steps in deconfinement which, from schools to football, announce a gradual return to normal in May. "The latest figures" on the evolution of the new coronavirus pandemic "are very satisfactory," said the Chancellor after a meeting with the country's regional leaders. "So we have come to a point where we can say that we have reached the goal of slowing the spread of the virus," Merkel said at a press conference.

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Germany therefore plans to lift almost all of the restrictions imposed from mid-March on the largest European economy to curb contagion. Notable exceptions: the closing of borders and the prohibition of major sporting, festive or cultural events with the public.

In the sports field, while in France it was stopped prematurely and the other European countries continue to question themselves, the German football championship will be able to resume from mid-May. The meetings will take place behind closed doors. The way is also clear for the gastronomy and hotel sector, affected by the impact of the coronavirus. Depending on the region, it will start operating again next week. "We must always be aware that we are still at the beginning of the pandemic and that we still have a long way to go to fight the virus," warned Angela Merkel.

"Germany will be 'under surveillance'"

Asked about Europe 1, Hans Stark, the adviser for Franco-German relations at IFRI and professor of German civilization at the Sorbonne, shares the caution of the German chancellor. "Everyone obviously thinks that a second or third wave even in the summer or in the fall is not at all to be excluded," he recalls. "We must not celebrate too early before the reconfiguration will remain possible," warns Hans Stark. "The political leaders underlined it, it is out of the question to return to the" normal situation "before the month of March 2020 and specific measures of local reconfiguration are quite possible", adds the professor. 

Angela Merkel gave two thresholds: we will reconfigure if the new coronavirus contaminations exceed new 35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the city, and 54 cases per 100,000 in the countryside. Currently, the city of Berlin is around seven contaminations per 100,000 inhabitants.

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"This means that Germany will be 'under surveillance' both for the reproduction of the virus but also for the behavior of its citizens," said Hans Stark. The Germans, even deconfigured, will indeed have to comply with a few restrictions such as wearing a mask in shops and transport and respecting barrier gestures, in particular the distance of 1.5 meters between people. In addition, any gathering of more than 5,000 people will be prohibited, probably until the end of the summer. 

In theory, everything can start again, everything can reopen: museums, cinemas, beaches, schools, restaurants with a VAT reduced to 7% for one year. It will then be up to the Länder to set the timetable and the rules to be followed, such as the maximum occupancy rate of hotels, the number of children per classroom, etc. 

Angela Merkel lost her arm wrestling with the Länder?

While the German chancellor was banking on a cautious and gradual deconfinement, the regions pushed for an accelerated deconfinement. Would Angela Merkel have lost the showdown with the Länder as some suggest? For Hans Stark, there is no showdown. "Health and internal security affairs are the business of the Länder constitutionally so there was absolutely no question that Angela Merkel could act as the President of the Republic in France does. She does not have the means in these files, "he said. 

"We especially noted that the Länder are very unequally affected by this coronavirus crisis. The infection rate is notably very low in East Germany and it is there that the first measures of deconfinement were taken", observes he. "The density in East Germany is very low, it represents 15% of the German population. And of these 15% they are very little affected because the infection rate in East Germany is, proportionally, between 5 and 6% of the population ", supports Hans Stark.

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Managing the coronavirus crisis could make a political difference in Germany. "Angela Merkel's CDU took ten points in the polls. The far-right party, AfD, lost almost a quarter of their electorate, which is rather a very good thing. And the current government, which was below 50% in the polls, now finds a majority to be able to govern the country, "notes Hans Stark. "This is a positive thing, it means that in a crisis, the Germans are not turning to populist voices but rather to the so-called traditional parties which are used to managing political and economic crises as it was the case in the past, "said the professor.