Author: Li Jun
In the end, is it "five poor, six must be seven turned over", or "global water release, bubble return"?
"Sell in May and walk away" (Sell in May and walk away) is the historical operating experience after the "spring restlessness" in the past, and there are also sayings that the old investors always hang "five, six, seven, seven, turn over". Affected by the unfavorable factors such as the uncertain overseas situation and the unfavorable external fermentation, the A-shares opened slightly lower on May 6 and there was basically no suspense.
After the low opening, is the A-share similar to the adjustment in early February basically "one step in place", or continue the "high-selling May run" high probability historical trend, some senior market participants have some differences on the future market, both The pessimistic view of "five poor, six extraordinary and seven overturned" also has a bullish view of "global water release, bubble returns".
"Five poor, six absolutely seven and turned over"?
In the first four months of 2020, A shares fell below 2700 points on February 4 and March 19, respectively, forming a "double bottom" trend in the technical form. Will the third bottom be created after opening lower in May? In this regard, many senior market participants believe that the current situation is similar to the plunge that began in May 2019, and the tail risk still needs to be digested.
Hu Yu, chief strategist of Huaxun Investment, told the First Financial Reporter that there may be a wave of downward market after opening lower, and the probability of US stocks bottoming out is higher. The monthly market will be more tragic. Therefore, if there is a rebound in May, you should fight while retreating. If it goes down directly in May, it may show a further decline in technology stocks.
Hu Yu believes that GEM has launched a registration system. Every reform of the Shenzhen issuing system brings an important turning point. After the launch of the SME board in May 2004 and the launch of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in July 2009, the stock market continued to "dig", and after these two times, Shenzhen's housing prices have risen significantly.
Fan Jituo, chief strategy analyst of New Era Securities, believes that the core reason behind the rebound from the end of March to April is "position supplement + game two sessions + resumption of work expectation". In May, the positive effects of the first two factors will be weakened. Although the third factor continues, the intensity is not too fast. This may bring the tail risk of A shares in May, and most of the game funds will be washed out in space, which may be monthly in time. In the tail risk period, positions should be controlled tactically, and new logic should be started in search of strategies. Historically, the tail risk period has been the gestation period of the new sector. Pig breeding and brokerages were brewed in December 2018, and electronics was brewed from June to July 2019. The trending market needs about a month of brewing, and the earlier time for large positions may be between the end of May and the beginning of June.
Golden Eagle Fund said that although the uncertainty of the control and spread of the overseas coronary pneumonia epidemic is still large, the proper control of the domestic epidemic and the performance of high-quality companies are still driving the rise of the A-share market. The domestic epidemic has now come to an end, resumption of production and production has returned to pre-epidemic levels, consumption and social activities are expected to recover, and local government special debt expansion and new and old infrastructure, new energy vehicle subsidies and other stable growth policies will continue to be released. The domestic economy is expected to be repaired earlier than overseas markets. In the future, it is expected that the impact of the epidemic on the capital market will be significantly weakened, and the market will pay more attention to the variables brought about by the epidemic's diplomatic contradictions to the international political environment.
Is 2440 a starting point for a round of A-share bull market?
Although it fell below the 2700 point mark on February 4 and March 19, A-shares with a certain degree of resilience are still far away from the bottom of January 2019 at 2440 points. This round of bull market pattern has not been destroyed, the bull market as a whole has continued for a year and four months.
Historically, the duration of the A-share bull market rarely exceeds two and a half years. From the four major rounds of bull market in the past ten years (part of the bull market is a structural market), after the "money shortage" in June 2013 to 2015 The GEM bull market in June (Note: GEM refers to the bottoming out in December 2012), the blue chip bull market from the end of January 2016 to the end of January 2018, and the comprehensive bull market from June 2005 to October 2007, From October 2008 to October 2010, "Eating Medicine and Drinking Wine" and SME Board Quotes.
In terms of financial stocks, July 3, 2018 is the historical bottom of outstanding stocks such as China Ping An (601318.SH) and China Merchants Bank (600036.SH). It has been more than 22 months so far. There have also been major repurchases and investment promotion of China Ping An Bank executives collectively increased their holdings; the recent record highs of Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) and other blue chip stocks have historically fallen below 500 yuan on October 30, 2018. .
Regarding the future market trend, some senior analysts still expressed the bullish view of "the return of the bubble", mainly based on the "collective release" of the global central bank headed by the Federal Reserve against the background of the global epidemic.
Jiang Chao, a macro analyst at Haitong Securities, said that looking back over the past 20 years, the Fed has had several similar emergency interest rate cut policies, which occurred in 1998, 2001 and 2008, respectively, and its background was to deal with the potential crisis at that time.
However, logically speaking, the economic downturn caused by the epidemic is inevitable, which means that the economy's demand for currency is declining. If a large amount of currency is invested at this time, in theory, the currency is surplus for the economy, and these excess If the currency of China cannot enter the real economy, it may eventually form a new round of asset bubbles. The US economy has been in a cycle of crises and bubbles for more than 20 years, and each bubble will eventually trigger a crisis; and in order to save the crisis, it will inevitably release a lot of water, which will spawn new asset bubbles.
Jiang Chao believes that what is more worthy of our attention is that this time the global central bank's large-scale banknote printing is also unprecedented. If everyone believes that the epidemic will eventually end, China ’s economy will continue to grow steadily in the future, and China ’s broad currency growth rate has rebounded to double digits. Compared with holding cash assets with little return, whether it is holding If there are high-quality real estate or stocks, there should be higher returns, and a new round of asset bubbles may be brewing.
Allocation direction: optimistic about blue chip stocks in the era of registration system
Market participants said that the current main configuration direction can consider the aspect of optional consumption.
Fan Jituo believes that the recent rapid decline in interest rates may bring some allocation funds that focus on stock market dividends. It is recommended to focus on sectors with low valuations and potential for high dividends. The financial real estate sector and some cyclical sectors with sufficient cash reserves can be properly paid attention to . From a fundamental perspective, the focus of the future is to observe the speed of recovery of various industries from the epidemic. Considering that the domestic economy may lead the recovery of the global economy, it is recommended to focus on domestic consumption. Recently, many local governments have issued policies to stabilize consumption. Similar policies may continue to be introduced. The positive impact on consumption is likely to be over. It is recommended to continue to overprovision and focus on optional consumption.
Hua Xin Securities analyst Zhang Xinyuan said that regarding the valuation impact of the existing sector, after the reform of the GEM registration system, the restrictions on the rise and fall of new shares were relaxed, which is expected to improve the liquidity of GEM stocks. The long-term bidding will gradually increase with the expansion of the capacity, the scarcity of the target will decline, the valuation of A shares may diverge, and the shell value will fall. Therefore, short-term attention to brokerage firms, A-share venture capital, new stock mapping or equity participation, and plans to split the A-share mark, the valuation before and after the formal launch of the GEM registration system is expected to increase; long-term focus on blue chips, venture blue chips, and emerging industry leaders.
A senior executive of a fund company in Shanghai told the First Financial Reporter that investors are advised to choose a value investment target based on the published annual and quarterly reports, especially to hold outstanding stocks for a long time. If value investors can still continue to hold industry leading stocks, there is no need to give up because the performance of the first quarter of 2020 is not as expected. It is important for value investment to maintain its own style for a long time. The global risk-free interest rate declines and the "asset shortage" Under the macro background, it is also conducive to the performance of A-share white horse stocks.