Analysis: "29 million new poor Latin Americans in the wake of the crisis"

The men who hand out supplies in the middle of the bright day are armed with machine guns and belong to the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación - the world's most powerful criminal organization right now 

A snapshot yes, but far from any isolated event. Imprisoned drug king "El Chapo" Guzmán's daughter has distributed food boxes marked with her father's face. And from different parts of Mexico come reports of similar incidents - criminal networks that exploit the corona crisis and the void of an ineffective and absent state apparatus to increase their influence over people's lives. 

In Brazil, Rio de Janeiro's shanty towns have become the scene of force demonstrations by the city's criminal gangs. When President Bolsonaro toned down the risks of covid-19 and society was hit by political power struggles and contradictory directives from the president and governors, the gang stepped in - introduced curfews, distributed soaps and provided health tips. 

The ongoing corona crisis has been described as a return for the state. In many places there is a wave of expansionary fiscal policy, the nationalization of business activities and a clearer role for central government in health care. Even in countries that have otherwise chosen a market liberal line, we now see a more active role for the state in the social economy - at least for a time. 

It is a description of reality that applies to many countries in Europe and North America. In other parts of the world, development may be another - perhaps even the opposite. Here, states lack the economic muscle to provide the community with artificial respiration during the crisis. And other forces try to fill the vacuum that arises. 

Even in Latin America, entire economies have been on ice for weeks that have now been months. According to the International Monetary Fund's forecasts, all countries in the region will go into deep recession and the UN tracks 29 million new poor Latin Americans in the wake of the crisis. 

Many Latin Americans lack the financial margins needed to cope without work for a long time. But the financial support packages for vulnerable citizens and criminals are insufficient and sometimes not even distributed because of ineffective bureaucracy and in some cases pure corruption when government officials and intermediaries try to make money from the situation. 

Latin America was in a difficult position even before the corona virus after several years of weak economic growth and a deep crisis of confidence in the political system that exploded in a wave of street protests in 2019. 

The corona crisis shows how broken the safety nets in Latin America are, and the region's governments now need the right priorities to cope with the difficult balance sheet in a sordid world economy with low commodity prices that are hitting hard on Latin American exports. 

In the event of an economic failure, the way is open for other actors to strengthen their position at the expense of the state power. Cartels already control parts of Mexico, criminal groups rule Brazil's favelas, guerrillas are more present than the state of Colombia's forgotten regions and in Venezuela, mafias and corrupt security forces control the country's borders. But the corona crisis can escalate the situation to new levels. 

The day after the Mexican media cartel's spectacular media coup in Guadalajara, a new "relief effort" is rumored. A local TV channel is in place as hundreds of people gather in hopes of a bag of food. When police and military pass by, people whistle and scream words. "We don't get a crap out of the authorities," a woman says. 

The fact that criminal organizations are not driven by concern for the weak of society plays a minor role for those who are without jobs and food. "I know it's wrong, but I'm not going to die of hunger," says a young man.